Member Info for wasarunner

More than a punt for me, inc family now 4.5%+ of the company. All my investments now 2025+ will measure performance on that basis. Short term I never know which way it's going to go. GLA

pumpky - I actually agree with your post EXCEPT I think things will move quickly when they start moving. This is as much demand side driven as Armadale getting around to doing something. If people are queueing up outside your door to get an offtake deal done it sharpens the mind to get the job done when money is on the table to get it done. So I think Armadale will be in a very strong position at that point subject to the regulatory agreements being done - that's why I'm focusing on the gov% as the next step as it clears the path to relatively quick financing. - the rest is under the companies control.

Lets see how quickly BKT can finance from this point - they only got their licence 2 weeks ago. I say they could get it done and dusted Q4.

We are unlikely to have a mine built before 2024 here now so 2025 is not necessarily a bad guess. That's the investment case but it's a damn good return on that timeframe. I can live with 2024 or 2025 for the return we are looking at here.

Clearly that's a placeholder for 'Armadale have signed an offtake agreement with Tesla'. I'm a glass half full kind of guy particularly when it comes to this investment. Lots of very positive background news in the last few days, anyone actually invested should be moderately pleased with what's going on....and if they aren't they should read the link Dee posted which I repost here:

https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/membership/more-than-300-new-mines-required-to-meet-battery-demand-by-2035/

Lots of demand coming, no need to get hung up on the website, serious players in the space will be looking at the DFS not the website...

Haven't had a chance to review but from comments looks like the website is a WIP probably important not to get too hung up on it at this stage that can be improved. Hopefully as new news lands and content is updated with gov stake improved DFS and offtake partners it will come together. I think parties parting with cash to invest to finance the mine build (offtake/debt/equity) need to do much deeper DD than the website and will have access to a lot more data so that doesn't concern me overly but obviously to attract retail and open market investors we need an accurate website.

Obviously I also like the fact the broker is forecasting a 350% return on a stock that is already at 1000% of the valuation of ACP. Those multiples are not to be sneezed at....

https://5826679.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/5826679/BKT%20Urbix%20may%20get%20Tesla%2c%20GM%20or%20Ford%20to%20accelerate%20development%20%20(9%20Sept%2022).pdf

Target 62c AUD which I make ~£350m mcap (not sure if there is assumed dilution to mine finance built into that but assuming no equity that would be the mcap). I would take 1/3 that as our initial target for our 1/3 capacity mine which should give us 15p easy at ACP assuming modest dilution < 50% new shares.

I particularly like these bits:
"graphite prices have held relatively stable
through the last six months and expect the growing
supply/demand deficits to have a material impact on prices by
the time Mahenge Stage 1 is commissioned (CY24)"

"CAN URBIX SECURE TESLA, GM OR FORD FOR BKT?"

"Having observed the effect of EV OEM offtakes/JVs on the
share price of many lithium developers, we could expect a
significant re-rating of BKT’s shares prior to the development
equity raising and limited dilution to current shareholders. "

"RETAIN BUY – SENSITIVITIES SHOW MATERIAL UPSIDE"

One day this will be ACP and we can still buy around £10m mcap....

http://armadalecapitalplc.com/

Me too. I know they were working on one, I assumed releasing it might coincide with further news (because if you release the website pre-news you have to update it with the news items as they land) so it may or may not indicate that news is on its way. Of course it is possible to design a website that can be easily updated with the bits you expect to change (like finalised DFS et al).

>>But remember, the game will be called off if no captures or forward pawn moves in a set time
In Armadale's case, that would be when cash runs out.

2021 FY = £0.333m loss
2021 FY cash on B/S = £2m

6 years it is then. But by then we've sold the asset or built the mine of course :)

http://armadalecapitalplc.com/

We have action!?

Also SJ I hope you have a chunk here and it goes well for us (all). Do feel this is a really committed board who will see it through and even though people are very frustrated with respect to visible progress, I think they may be playing a blinding, if slow game (you'll appreciate that being a chess player, we are kind of playing out a long middle game :) to bring finance in when the time is right. Hopefully stick with this one and it goes right and you get a win. One thing you have on ACP is massive financial prudence which sometimes is not a bad thing.

SJ it can and we all get it wrong, I've got it wrong before. As it happens I bought into a well financed company that then didn't get a licence. And without a mining licence, as a junior miner........ you ain't going to build a mine!

It is one key thing I do look for when I invest is financing options the BOD have, how leveraged the company is wrt to commodity prices (it's what makes investments like ACP, HZM, GRL so bloody good is they are all such low cost producers lowest quartile so can weather storms) and also, what financing is the company likely to employ where is the next £ going to come from if things go south? With ACP we have a very strong balance sheet right now for the stage we are at pre finance, GRL had supportive shareholders/debt holders who rolled the loan when they didn't produce as quickly as expected, HZM raised $100-150m more cash than they thought they might need. Hindsight is of course a wonderful thing and I am very aware it can go wrong on any share. It's why I hold 3 - fingers crossed none go south, I can handle 1 going very south, and if one performs really well I can live with only 1/3 going north. Good luck at RMM hope it turns around for you if you stick with it.

Intrigued now, I had written the warrants off TBH (September 3p warrants, 27m inc 5.5m Kabunga 1m MB).

3m shares traded today, not all buys, moving us ~0.4p. Another couple of similar days and the 3p shares would be in the money. That's significantly less shares being bought than the warrant shares - it means if warrant holders want their allocation, they can buy on open market now and get cheaper BUT they have to be in the first 5m+ shares to have a chance of getting under 3p. After that it's 3p.

I don't really understand these situations because I tend to buy for the long term but it is interesting that warrant holders appear now not to be able to buy their allocation open market below the option price. Sure, maybe KB wouldn't be buying his but now has to be a chance some warrants will convert still a bit under 3 weeks left until they have to be exercised.

Interesting rise (from my perspective because I haven't bought a single share today). Perhaps people have had time to mull the BKT news and consider the disconnect. Hope it's not just my enthusiasm but I do feel the Ubrix/BKT news was a biggie and a signal on where the macro is taking us.

Also there seems to be sentiment returning to wider markets don't know if others are feeling this way - many shares are off their lows. My commiserations to RMM investors these are the risks we take it could happen on any share it's why we have to tread carefully.

Really hope our next news here is the gov% and hope it doesn't take too much longer. You do feel that without that agreed it is difficult to put the other pieces of the jigsaw together so that would be another key de-risk for ACP and some finally newsflow to get us going.

I was trying to look at where Ecograf has got to but seen nothing from them since pre-pandemic (2019) so I don't know if their project is on hold? Anyone got any other info on them? From memory their metrics weren't anywhere near as good as ours, or Blackrocks and they were doing a tie up for downstream processing to get the project off the ground?

Always quite low here - again 1.25m traded up 12.5%. Since beginning of August I've bought a fraction under 3m shares so all it takes is a few investors with the bigger picture to move us up. Of course there will always be sellers it is the way of things. Let those who want to exit out, hopefully investors now buying not traders who will hold through to production at least, and if the company come with news in the next quarter the summer low should be behind us. £10m valuation really is saying it won't get built - MB gives us any indication that it will, and we should trade higher IMO.

I don't have access to graphite pricing data but this looks very positive if these are real numbers...(one of the downsides if you can call it that of investing in an opaque market commodity?)

https://twitter.com/Jkoozi1/status/1568197958062981122

Not saying it is a given but 10x is mathematically possible on this share (from this level at least). $500m+ NPV can command £100m-200m mcap one day and depending on shares in issue (Blackrock have just under a billion I noted, we could end with similar or less) 10-20p is reasonable and gives us 5-10x. At production, probably not these numbers before production IMO in the case of Armadale with the smaller mine.

£117m GBP mcap BKT v £11.5m ACP
10:1
GLA

And as AIMtodeath keeps pointing out, the later you leave the deal as deficit approaches in general the better deal you should be able to get. Which makes it a balancing act between financing early so the value from the asset is released early, and financing later and getting a better deal and getting a better outcome (but later). There is no absolute right and wrong in this but clearly -> MB wants a really good deal and not just any old deal and he probably believes if the deficit is in, and BKT are financed, he can get a better deal than before this time. I don't know this 100% but this is my feeling that this is all about valuation and biding a time letting the market come to you and not chasing it - waiting till the right inbound enquiries are being made to get the right final outcome. Personally I favour a better deal and slightly longer timeframes being an investor rather than trader, others may see it differently....