Member Info for wasarunner

it's more likely if you buy a small quantity that you get a good price but I've had quite large buys print as sells. I sometimes post that I bought on the board so people don't assume it's all one way selling on a share.

Clock ticking down on this one - I am looking forward to that quarterly update surely latest in June and I expect it to be quite a good one.

stock exchange doesn't publish the direction of a trade so the website (lse) infers it from the bid/ask at the time. If you got a buy price closer to bid than ask it will assume its a sell. It's very common especially on a share like this where the published spread is huge and the trading is often well within spread.

No hurt taken but a chess player understand this. If we were playing against each other in 2019. Maybe. Now its Orion v La Mancha v Glemcore v Anglo. We are less than pawns (which doesn't exist in chess) and await the outcome.

Big influencer here now is Glencore. I never intend to influence anyone. And unti the deal (which, I said at the time, I was disappointed with) I didnt sell a share. I still consider the share a solid hold. Actually people have had relative price stability if we consider 6-8p stable so what I say and do doesnt matter. Try holding 15m shares you bought at 4p when it goes to 1.7p. Not easy. There were dark days we huddled around the campfire then and hoped JM would work miracles. He did, kind of. I hope minimum 20p-30p here, maximum 30p-50p in sale. I hold the amount I want to see those numbers in a timeframe I think they will happen, thats all. I think a lot of impatient sold after the deal anyeay if they wanted out because many were predicting a high sp at end of last year. I hoped for 10p on financing and we didn't gen get that. Did I influence them to sell? Doubt it. Hope not.

Is it a long hold? Not if horizonte pass some key milestone glen have set on their reminders and make a bid? Only thing we know for sure is this gets sold, building further lines, Vermelho etc is a pipedream so the only question you have to answer is when, for how much. Unless someone knows somebody at Glencore and also somebody at Anglo etc who make another bid we don't know the answer. My guesd is late 23 or somrtime in 24. Is that long? For a trader yes. For an investor not at all.

I held the share since 2018 (long before you invested) I held the share through city financial selling and at one point I was £300k underwater. I still hold 8 figures (in shares). I have never deliberately or intentionally misled anyone. I consider horizonte a good investment and will hold to production or sale.

You came along, asked if it was a good investment, bought some, didn't like the deal (neither did I) and you call me a pumper. Class mate. Each to their own investments. Anyone thinks any of us can influence what Glencore, Orion and La Mancha want to happen here with £250m mcap+ company needs head examined. I don't gain anything from posting so I will post less. If I scroll back a year or two I probably tried to answer genuine questions you had with genuine knowledge I gaimed by speakimg to ditectors of the actual business. Whether you buy or sell is your business. I wish you success with tour investments. All imho.

They shouldnt sell. They should buy horizonte, acp, grl. I am bullish on all 3. What proportion they hold is up to them and I dont try to influemce it. As is my proportion. I actually posted thr proportuon recently somewhere. I hope nobody is trying to match my holding proportions exactly because then if I got the proportion wrong and o e goes tts up they lose. Actually the reason I hold 3 in size is I think at most 1 might not deliver. Then your loss is a third and you recover it on thr gain in the other two. Have I tried to influence others for personal gain? Never. Unlike the majority on twitter if I'm honest. Gla

I like you sj but please leave it. You can't do right for wrong on boards. All I ever did was pitch my view on what I think of a companies prospects good or bad. When they did the deal I expressed my opinion on it you can read into that clearly that I sold (some). I continue to post there because I continue to have a big holding and am interested in developments. Does anyone care how many we hold, hopefully not to the nth decimal place. I post my holding here because I am reasonably confident in armadale, enough for it to form a third of my pf. I dont have infinite wealth otherwise clearly would just add everything forever. Twitter is far worse everyone is always topping up never selling even the known traders. I never deliberately trade, I invest, review, rebalance. I also dont pump and dump. In any case horizonte isnt penny stock anymore its run by big boys glencore £250m mcap what I say shouldnt matter really.

Onto acp. Lets hope for update next week. Gla

Apparently if I sell it might spook people go figure. If I sell up I will declare it but actually when I had new cash I also bought horizonte. I still hold 8 figures (shares) and dont intend to sell any more as I am overweight armadale now. Armadale will be a cracking investment and if I was more bullish short term on the market generally due a bigger rerate soon on news but the market is pants so I just want them moving towards production and will ignore sp now.

Have maybe 100k landing end june will figure whats cheap then definitely acp if we are still 3s will get some buying.

I have never ever ever pushed a share i intended to sell or negative on a share i wanted to buy. Leave those games to others. I am investor not a trader.

I don't mind admitting it the problem is people go awol when you sell as if you have betrayed something. I did the same realigned expectation on Horizonte. I happen to think both are excellent investments and I rebalanced. I often highlight what I think is the pro/con risk profile.

One thing I got wrong with Armadale potentially is I thought it could happen earlier making a switch at production possible. On my two biggest holdings production will start similar(ish) +/- 6 months and that's IF we get good news here soon that things are moving. Not a problem for me but it's why I am now very much in for production on all my investments and forgotten about rerates driven by financing deals etc.

had to sell (obviously) to buy so I did. Occasionally get the odd big windfall - hoping for one end of June, but latterly if I buy one I have to sell the other. Just think Armadale has an awful lot of potential from current levels so have been building gradually and sub 4p is frankly taking the ****.

Not sure it's sensible so please don't anyone else follow my lead but added another million.
£0.03444 = the lowest price I have ever paid for this stock (I think), was today. Guess that means I'm underwater!
GLA

Ant in the DFS A has a 28 year mine life so no problem with resource on this one.
Agreed both mines producing multi multi billion co but it's academic we'll not get there. I am hoping for a valuation that factors in A2 (call A1+A2 $1.5bn sale value at that point?) without it getting built and then add a bit for Vermelho DFS ($0.5bn?) for a $2bn sale 2024. £1.5bn in real money 30p fully diluted.

To be fair 2 bags (from here) gets us to $1bn. That's around my expectation for first production - 20p area (before Vermelho and a clear path to A2 which obviously can add to this).

Ant what nickel price are you basing $2-3bn on? Just I don't think you get 100% of NPV in the valuation. Notwithstanding we all agree there are good times ahead at some point we just don't know exactly when. My expectation is a sale > $1bn and hopefully significantly above, eventually ($2-3bn is clearly in this bracket). 30p with shares in issue would be around the $2bn mark allowing for options, convertables etc (I think).

One slight negative for me is the gold price may not fly like I expected with a strong dollar. It appears we are in a slight flight to safety mode and the dollar is winning - I expected gold above $2k. But this is where cost of production becomes crucial - marginal profit companies will make less money in these markets as costs rise and if gold is at this price. Being lowest quartile is really important and that is where Homase sits so GRL is insulated from downward pressure on gold price and also, being debt free is huge (to keep banging on about it) in this respect with only opex to service. AISC $1k with gold $1.8k is just fine for Goldstone. GLA

In investing terms of course 2 years is not long to wait. I know many here have waited longer (me included) but we've seen a decent rerate in the last 3 years also so people have had the opportunity to exit in profit or 'slice'. We've had a bag or two from a couple of years ago, at least a bag or two ahead in the next 24 months is my expectation. It's not bad work if you can get it to double your money in these timeframes.

Market is in doldrums, not dropping is a good result in these markets. The news is great news but expect the rerate to happen closer to production personally (and when we have news on Vermelho). Not being negative just reset personal expectations to reap rewards when my investments are producing - posted this on another board also. News seems to get sold off at the moment but production/revenues don't lie. We of course are likely to get taken out around that point or even before but that's where I'm expecting the real jam to be. Horizons around end 2023 then into 2024 Horizonte things will get interesting (and the bids may come) - assuming mine build is executed to the numbers. GLA

BOJO I decided to ignore sp fluctuations on short term news because (IMO) it all gets sold anyway. Better to focus on production it is where the jam is and why principals (in all of my major holdings) are invested. Will acp rise on finance? Will it rise on mine build? Maybe. But reality is when it starts producing, when graphite is worth much more than today, the mine is completely derisked, is where the value is both to a potential acquirer, to MB, and to other shareholders. So if your time horizon can allow it, its a relatively simple formula (imo) - buy commodities in demand in a few years time, back mgt teams and resources can deliver it, and dont need cash or sell shares in the meantime. Then the market will come to you and you don't have to chase it. Patience is hard, of course....but I think this strategy works and I put all my equity behind it.

It creates opportunity. Sadly I cant take advantage as liquid income has dried up but if you are seriously investing long term low sp is a gift and you dont want it high. It is literally that - a value play current market value against expected/'real' value and when on your expectation that goes low you should buy! Market is imperfect - that creates opportunity - and its how I made all my money on the market to date. Goldstone is no different - it is worth 20p on expected earnings in 2022.