Member Info for wasarunner

Board seems to be a lot of green boxes (for me anyway). People won't thank me for saying it but I am reassured that Horizonte has fallen because my other stocks have fallen by more - which usually indicates wider market jitters than company or commodity specific problems (AIM looks generally shot from where I am sitting). I consider Horizonte the safest/soundest investment in my portfolio so the fact we are some what 20%+ below what Orion, La Mancha and Glencore were happy to pay tells you the market is shot. Is it the bottom, who knows but shouldn't matter in a couple of years when we get to production. Good luck those adding think you are getting a bargain. I nearly added last week but need this money back on a shorter timeframe so added elsewhere. My main problem with it all is everything has taken years longer than I expected but at least now we have a detailed plan to measure delivery against on Horizonte and the clock is ticking to end 23/early 24 for that first production. Looking for the debt drawdown here being another key de-risk step in the jourmey. Gla

Appreciate people are hurting (I don't like being underwater either) but for me none of these have changed:
- company running out of cash?
- resource diminished or political risk?
- commodity not in demand?
- some other massive logistical problem that would prevent the resource being developed (this one is perhaps a bit more subtle because as I understand it there are supply issues in Africa right - for e.g. my other holding GRL have problems sourcing Diesel).

Has the macro changed enough to drop this to half it's former valuation? Not in my opinion which is why I added. Company not releasing news of developments doesn't worry me overly. No news I don't infer as bad news. Things take time. Appreciate others see this differently.

Each to their own and I wouldn't criticise anyone for protecting their capital but selling 'at the bottom' is rarely a good thing. Are we at the bottom? Looking around AIM and markets generally, got to be close IMO. Armadale is a binary play on whether the mine gets built - gets built - you make money from here, doesn't get built, you lose everything. What are the % chances of it getting built, perhaps slightly less in a less favourable financing market (and with inflation present) but AFAIK the resource is the resource still, graphite is in demand and indeed graphite prices remain good.

I added £50k last week so I remain, for now, a buyer. That was new money thankfully didn't have to sell any of my other tanked stocks. We will see. My horizons are 2025-26, that is the investment timeframe, if people need money sooner then this kind of investment is probably not the thing. Mines, especially in Africa, and especially a first mine for a junior, take while to come to fruition. GLA

Thing I don't get about the director extensuon is why it would cause a suspensuon. Director knows market sensitive news in closed period can't convert warrants fine - extend the period they can convert warrants but why would you stop everyone (all the people who don't have access to the sensitive information) trading the share in the meantime. It's something else but what, who knows, perhaps the attempted theft perhaps something else. Either way I expect a conclusion by 6th July which is basically next week. Hopefully gets wrapped up this week with the results and operational update.

ok looks like not yesterday and not today then! Before the 6th July in any case??

Suspension could end today with results then the shares get admitted tomorrow is my thinking. Lets see.

"could not be exercised during this close period. Accordingly, the Board of the Company resolved to extend the exercise period of the Nguvu Warrants by two weeks, to expire at midnight on 6 July 2022"

Well that statement settles one thing. The closed period will end before 6th July, so the warrants can be exercised within the extension, which means we will get the annual report in the next 2 weeks. I expect the company doesn't have to unsuspend for the warrants to be exercised but my reading is this is the reason for the suspension so it probably will? I think we find out in the next 2 weeks. I'm not 100% certain but I'm reasonably confident this is behind the suspension.

Last year FY results were 28th June, that being the last Monday in June. If it's the same this year it's Monday coming.
None of us know the full facts but hopefully not long to wait now. GLA

Xeiger probably not but my plan is (was) to switch strategy later in the decade anyway and move around 80% out of microcap once the commodity bull run is fully established. Need to get there first of course and all these miners to start mining :) But it's a reminder. I've taken a 6 figure loss before for around 75% of a stock value so I think I understand the game but it isn't an easy one.

Tend to agree but it's not easy - my dealing platform shows -100% loss, 0 value, down £600k+. Of course there is always a reminder with these investments that is a possible outcome but hopefully not the case here. It's a bit opaque for my liking - news in June would be pretty much expected I would suggest as it has been 3 moths since the last operational update on 25th March.

There is a chance we don't get the operational update until we get news on why we are suspended, if they are sorting something out which takes longer than this. Not super comfortable being in this situation but I agree no need to panic just yet and certainly nothing we can do about it. GLA

I suggested <10% chance it doesnt get built not 10%. As the worse pandemic in 300yrs then the first serious european war in a couple of decades proved, there is always a chance things don't happen as you expect them to. 100% is impossible is all I am saying. I think it gets built that's why I add when I have funds. Gla

Also I do think current market is a huge buying opportunity because commodities gold etc should hold value well in an inflationary cycle. Choppy times ahead, nobody can accurately call the bottom. I wish I had funds I really see this as a great opportunity like the covid low and before that the pre finance years on Horizonte. The only question investors here need to ask themselves is will the mine get built - if yes, you make a lot of money from 3p. If you give it a significant % chance it won't then it's not a good investment clearly. I would give it in thr 90s% it grts built so I am happy holding and I lomg ago discovered I can't predict timimg to even within years with these junior miners. Gla

DanInvestor good post. I spoke briefly with MB recently and he is very aware of these concerns but can't say much that's all I can say. But he is very aware of the need to update shareholders. My reading of it (and I could be wrong) is that our development is tied in behind Blackrock to save money. To me that sounds like a potential 6mth+ delay on what I was hoping (to be building a mine in May) and when I say 6mth+ who knows it could be a year. As I want total outcome and can take a year I have reconciled myself to it. Part of the reason I switched sime funds here from horizonte eas the theoretical shorter mine build but maybe not to be we might come online around same time. That's investing.

O/T but I invested in Zaim where Simon Retter is CFO on his recommendation. Very sound, well run company, unfortunately operating in a country run by a madman. Lesson learnt. Gla

If it helps anyone else cope with the few % drop here, in my PF one share is suspended, second one is in Russia, third one is 50% off its high. Horizonte is doing damn good in a damn awful market :) Institutions starting to take note is my theory...but it still won't be immune to wider market shenanigans short term but should be excellent as another poster said by the time of production.

Still looking to see what Glen's motivation is, will they buy open market is the question....

Thanks nthoftheriver good to know it is an operational (and not a financial) issue as the former can usually be overcome and as the rns suggests operations at Homase continue.

Personally this 'debarcle' if we call it that has made me realise I don't want and m&a situation with Goldstone ay least for a couple of years until we establish fair value which we should, given the economics of the mine and the resource. I am very much hoping for a valuation in the £150-250m ballpark in years to come.

I'm not fearing the worst. They are mining at Homase right now and the JORC is 600koz of gold worth $1bn at todays prices. Operational matters and other matters happen in mining that's the nature of it. I don't necessarily see it as a positive (the nature and timing of the rns' to me suggests it isn't m&a related)but hoping not too big a negative. In any case nothing we can do so we see on Monday. Personally, I would rather an operational hiccup that can be overcome than a cheap t/o. I want 30p at least here (and we wouldn't get that now). Gla

'following an operational matter' in the second rns sounds like an operational matter to me. Perhaps they had to pause and resume at Homase or perhaps its an issue at Akrokeri. Find out Monday I guess.

Be good to find out today. Going to be a carppy weekend if nothing till Monday.

In the garden. About to crack open a beer. What will be will be :)

Blackrock's investors think their company is worth 6x Armadale and they own land with the same mineralisation and same grades and have no mine yet. So we will see.... 2x is too pessimistic IMO.

>>2025-2030 is where I think the critical shortage of battery materials will really manifest and we will get stupidly high commodity and company valuations.

And serious M&A. If not before. GLA