Member Info for wasarunner

haha its hard not to buy it! I'm super tempted but it helps that all my other shares are (mostly) also tanked right now!

"line 2 which we will advance during the build phase"
I assume by this he means a more detailed study to be published for Line 2 so it _could_ start construction straight after Line 1 if capital can be raised. Interesting - it's what I hoped would happen.

Construction start Jan. Good news. Early 24 for production remains realistic then.

https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts-embed/61a0a1f101f64806158e9b2e/horizonte-minerals-funding-package-for-araguaia/?popup=true

Confirms offtake is at market pricing. Full exposure to upside.

nutkins didn't go into great detail but my interpretation:
- they can't go short or they get very badly screwed if they have to raise more through the build. Say there is a delay due to engineering problems or a wet season washout etc. So there has to be plenty of contingency
- opportunity to lock in better interest raise on Real conversion now (provides additional buffer)
- I explored the scenario that surplus can be used for A2 and was told it could but that's not guaranteed as a lot can move in the meantime

On a final point and this isn't one I discussed with SR but it is becoming obvious is inflation in mining inputs has gone up a lot since the DFS through Covid I think a lot of stuff is more expensive. Maybe they give us a modified estimate cost breakdown once we are at the start of construction?

Obviously we all hope it delivers inside time and inside budget then any surplus can be put to good use.

On the other point of sp appreciation yes I agree it will be gradual I didn't mean it doubles on construction finished. I imagine the nickel price will have a big part to play in how Horizonte's shareprice now appreciates.

Backspace put in £333k or £500k then and it will make you a millionaire :) I did, and it did! GLA - I'm not one to call bottoms but this looks cheap and absolutely double or treble from here is nailed on IF AND WHEN the mine gets delivered. Orion and La Mancha are here for at least that multiple IMO.

Thanks pp can you try again on twitter? Didnt see it sorry. And again really appreciate the input as I am sure others do too. We all kept each other going through the fallow times to some exteny it is impossible to be real content all the time. Except for Craig who has never wavered and chapeau to him!

pickedp ditto that excellent work you are a one man war here. I was jaded by the announcement but I think you are right it will rerate albeit on a slightly more gradual upward journey. If one has time (not all do) and we believe $25k/t is possible then it will come good assuming company can execute the build. I spoke to SR this morning and reassured. We will be valued as a producer but first the company have to deliver a working mine. That's where the gravy is (and perhaps always was). As you say getting from 2p -> 8p may have been a fluke as Horizonte should never have been 2p that was an artificial scenario with those II's selling. I look forward now to next year and hopefully a main market listing and start of mine build and a declaration on which route Horizonte want to pursue the Vermelho DFS. In the meantime nickel prices are rising and stocks are dwindling, not a bad place to be invested. I hope funds start to see it that way and start buying. A lot of speculative PI interest will disappear I guess. GLA

Pickedp we find out in due course. One thing we agree I think is Vermelho doesnt contribute to mcap right now so pure upside. Obviously horizonte want to make it bankable and in the hands of a major it can be accelerated anyway. My 15p/25p+ estimate at production/a2 excludes vermelho. So all to olay for. It is going to be a journey. Good luk to all who remain (or are just joining).

Incidentally quite a good time to buy right now. If Orion and La Mancha see multiples from 7p pi should take their cue and take the 6.75p on offer. If I wasnt fully committed I would be adding at this level. Gla

My view on Vermelho is they were 99% focussed on getting Araguaia financing over the line but used the opportunity to raise for DFS (and hence had to announce that part of the funding now). Now that finance is in they will flesh out plans on what the DFS will look like and will update the market. The situation is more complicated with Vermelho than Araguaia so I would wager we may see a bigger study, perhaps with optionality of route (matte/ferro/hpal) as the nickel market dynamics have been shifting of late. So I agree with pickedp in principle but a bigger study could take longer - also if they want to make it 'shovel ready' for a major to pick up it has to dot the i's and cross the t's it can't be a 75% done job. My best guess is it will be aligned to complete with Araguaia build which would be around 2 years. Obviously less time is better.

If Teck wanted to sell surely they would approach one of the big boys to see if they would take the stake - Orion/La Mancha? I can't see them selling 200m shares open market, just don't see it. Alternatively if Orion see multiples upside from 7p by subscribing at that level Teck if they hold must be happy that their stake will be worth more in future, even diluted.

Slurms if we consider the CLN equity, I make it circa 54% debt, but if we consider initially debt then higher of course. I am using $346m debt and $633m total funding must confess haven't been through the latest RNS' in painstaking detail. It's a lot of equity much more than I was expecting. I hope on my other investment where mine finance is needed it can be funded with a much bigger ratio of debt, that's the advantage of a higher IRR I think and shorter mine build, lenders see their money back quicker and with more certainty.

Just for a final time, I think Horizonte remains an excellent investment but I have pared back the multiples expectations and extended the timeframes. I will be seeking assurance from the mgt team that Araguaia 2 can be funded from FCF and with any overspill of cash from Stage 1 + debt. This is really important to me. Another path is it can be funded through part sale of Vermelho. It is important to me now they don't issue any more shares for Araguaia to get us to 29kt/yr. At 29kt/yr I still expect ~£500m GBP gross turnover which will more than justify the kind of mcap I need for this to be a really good investment. And if we get T/O sooner that's fine if it is at a premium to the stage of development at the time. I'll probably try and go a bit quieter on this board now (probably to many relief!) but I hold, I hold long, I believe in the company and if I learn anything from mgt I can share I will share it. I see less upside, but more certainty, after the funding announcement. My hope is very much the amounts raised are generous and can be used to accelerate A2 in due course. Or that, at production, Horizonte are in a much stronger position to raise finance for A2 in any case being a producer, than they were this time round. GLA

Smoggy because they need it as contingency I expect. It is still a complex engineering project. Then when it is left over they can act surprised and give us the good news in 2 years time that A2 can be fastracked. That's my hope anyway. As I said, what I hope doesn't happen, is shares for Orion and La Mancha to fund A2. No more dilution for Araguaia now is what we need this has to be project funding to get 2 lines up and running (in due course) barring a T/O.

It doesnt matter what we post. If people want to sell they will sell. This is exactly the worst time to sell. If I was ****ed off which Im not I still wouldnt sell today. Clearly this is going to go higher than the placing price and clearly mms will drop it at open. If you sell you got mugged (so dont). Then the sp will rise. I need to think about the offer and how to fund it if participate. I make it around 1:20 anyone think the same? £70k or so for me to raise

Including options. 50% of stage 1 npv is around 10p at that level. Will we get more not sure. I think we need to move off Aim personally so we can be valued on future earnings. Aim doesnt price that correctly.

I am intrigued that people like dj who dumped most of his holding after paltry $25m raised at 7.5p and didnt have a positive word to say think this is great deal to do $200m at 7p. Elapsed time seems to blu t the memory. I am cautiously optimistic about the deal mainly because nickel will be q lot higher in the timeframe I care about. Yes its hard to raise multiples of your mcap just wish they had been honest about the total requirement (equity and $). Gla

SJ no worries mate we all call it how we see it. Craig called it good spot on with price and overall equity(ish). I thought it pessimistic.

The flipside is as others have pointed out, without a rise in price we are in serious sitting duck land. $600m is funded so doesn't have to be found. So somebody offering $600m usd for the lot gets that on the balance sheet (less the debt of course which will need to be repaid albeit buttons i interest). So Orion and La Mancha won't accept their money back they are here for 4x or 5x or whatever. So we will see a bigger number that just became certain. Wjll we get an offer? Now there are at lest two, or three or four if you count Teck and Glencore to haggle with to part with control.

One thing for sure there will be almighty volume in coming days. I don't intend to part with shares because I think there is going to be PI mugging going on by more sophisticated investors.

Moral of the story? Be wary when a company has to raise multiples of mcap. Yes they did it, yes its an achievement but from a stronger starting position they could have got better price. But with $20-30m in the bank how to raise $600m? That's the conundrum. It isn't going t be me and you funding it at those numbers....

SJ I think for the patient and on the horizons one should invest in a company like Horizonte it will come good, it will return multiples, no worries there. My 30p target remains intact albeit it may need a2 for the reckoning.

The bits where I think some creative licence were used:
- cornerstone investor $100m usd which one. Glencore? Orion? La Mancha? Because betwren them its more but none are in for $100m and
- I challenge anyone to come up with $600m+ figure? I expected $500m but thats a whole extra $100m. Sure a company developing 2 mines may need that but if so, say it, that way existing investors can understand the likely price dynamics.
I think it will do well, I think the mgt have done a job getting a big deal over the line - lesson learnt £100m mcap company raisong $500m usd carries risk, right now I am pleased I am 30% other stocks because this will takr a while to come good.

That said I do expect insto buying so now is not the time to bail! Dont give them shares o the cheap. The new shares are the new shares but it is inevitable this will move up people should not sell at 7.5p or whatever they drop it to. All imho

Vaux - broker had 34p unrisked. I hope they right you wrong. Imo they should now build a2 out of fcf that way we will see my long term goals (but it will happen later than I hoped). Do not dilute for a2. I have no idea what the sp will do, $600m+ on the b/s is a big lump. I would be happy if we ca hold 10p+ that will be going on $600m usd mcap abd around 50% of a1 npv. Happy to be pleasantly surprised.

I make it closer to 3.7bn shares including options fully diluted. I'm disappointed, expected better terms. It lowers the overall upside and Vermelho wasn't ringfenced - Orion and La Mancha are getting a steal on Vermelho. My 50p estimate became 30p, 30p became 20p, £1 became 60p and so forth.... and we almost certainly will go to the placing price in the short term I expect? Always seems to play that way.

We were patient in the 3s and 4s. We didn't panic in the 1s and 2s. Can't speak for others but I'm getting bored of the 7s and 8s. Onwards and upwards (here's hoping in 2021!) I really thought double digits by end of year, lets see, trading days ticking off now... I know they're busy because I can't get a call with my contact! GLA