Member Info for wasarunner

Bwana normally I'd agree but as I see it:
- majors will happily rely on the Vale study probably as a backdrop to doing their own DFS (there is plenty of data which could be disclosed during a DD process) and
- as pickedpeck says we are not in a normal market coming up far from it. The majors know this and I tend to agree a major will want to build a bigger mine (particularly at Vermelho) so to some extent a detailed FS which pitches a Horizonte sized mine seems a bit of a waste of time. If Horizonte were to develop a DFS to the Vale numbers preparing it for sale then I get that.

I think the three things heavily weighing against us staying independent long:
1. The proximity to the commodity cycle. Majors will want these mines producing much quicker than Horizonte can develop them to the scale (as pickedpeck pointed out in his post)
2. The size of the assets. We were always realistically a target on that basis and probably the reason some people bought in here for an inevitable T/O but in this case the size really means we are globally significant so can not be under anybody's radar.
3. The scramble for assets and perhaps this is the key point. I just don't think majors can wait around 2 years to make their offer, not unless they are happy for someone else to make the first offer and jump in at that point. We should see M&A ramping up next year I think.

Of my three big holdings I think Horizonte is by far the most obvious T/O target. What's ironic is that I diversified mainly to see gains sooner on other stocks yet if it does go down the T/O route it will probably be the first to go and go big. However, you can't rely on that 100% as we've seen even from DFS -> finance complete can take 3 years so still the right strategy was to diversify.

I guess the question then becomes minimum price. I can live with 25p (in next 6 months) but I would think we can get an awful lot more. And if we get to production more again. GLA

Increasingly tend to agree witb pickedpeck on this one. I think it is too obvious that nickel will be a premium commodity in the coming cycle so majors can't just assume they can buy producing mines ahead of other majors. Either way it should work well for us I anticipate a bidding war whether in next 6 months or in 2 years at production. Of course we will get a different price but the advantage of getting it today is you can still invest it back into the commodity cycle.

It is inevitable imo the only uncertainty is timing, and price.

Craig - for the record - I believe you! Come on guys anybody invested here whatever their position will do well with it. And soon(ish) I think.

dj, I think pickedpeck is selling and Craig is buying his shares. Am I right? No idea, I can't see their accounts.

On the other hand, I've told you what I'm doing (on all boards) but I think you are calling me a liar so at the risk of the O/T and the general disdain of the board here I feel I do have to explain myself. I tihnk you are adding up my holdings and going 'how does he get to that number'. Here are a few pointers:

- I believe inflation is here, it's rife, and my money is safer in the stockmarket than outside it, especially when I don't own property. So I continue to add. How much? I would have to check my records but at least £400k this year.
- How did I do that? I'm sure nobody here cares, but I sold a house, part sold a business, and continue to run the business I part sold which makes good money. I continue to invest every penny of it. Occasionally I take out loans as further leverage when shareprices drop to stupid low levels, like Horizonte at 5.9p.
- Finally, and this is perhaps the key point. I'm patient. I wait for months years. Then when I see GRL drop to 9p and people capitulating (you I believe) I go, I'll have myself some of that. I didn't capitulate during Covid on Horizonte. I didn't capitulate on Goldstone or Armadale, I continued to add. I am HZM, ACP, GRL, 20m, 9m, 3m. That's it. A bit of rounding but thereabouts.

I think 'buy low sell high' everyone understands right? I think it's the 'patience' bit people don't get. If you'd held your original invetsment in Horizonte, or not sold Goldstone at 9p maybe you'd have more I don't no but I really have no beef with you. You sound like you have plenty - rental properties et al, I don't currently own a property. But it will come. Patience. GLA

I seem to have called one thing broadly right so far - the SP ahead of financing. My feeling was 8-9p range based on nothing much other than the historical pricing and the fact that that range would allow an up to 10-20% discount and still arrive at a reasonable issue price for the remaining equity. That's what the market expects, personally, I expect equity to be done above current level.

It is strange though because we are getting the financing announcement in stages - first the debt (better than expected) then this latest RNS pointing to an issue on TSX. I understand why the market is reluctant to mark the shares higher whilst there is uncertainty over the final pieces but I do think the market got it wrong.

Whatever, we do seem to be firmly anchored in the 8-9p range now and I suspect this close to the announcement this is where we stay until the next RNS, if we were going to move much we would have done already. But it doesn't matter, the market will have to digest the details of the deal and re-rate us once it has been announced. I firmly expect to be double digits by end of year. GLA

Thanks pp. The difference I guess between a financier vs a major is they probably dont want to run the mine. Therefore if there is an eventual offer they won't part with their shares cheap. Whereas say Teck may offer a lower amount for a remaining 70%.

Shouldn't be long till we find out who it is in any case.

the_watcher yes very exciting. Must confess earlier this year I dismissed Teck and thought Glencore mainly because Teck don't have nickel interest presently. Then when they were linked with the other brazilian mine t/o I thought that was a very significant development. I think the last rns here just about spells it out but lets see. I have been wrong before. As you say all top players and between them 'not short of a bob or two'. I think Orion for instance do $500-750m funding so $100m is like quite small beer for them.

Surprised sp isn't higher (doesn't bother me overly but market is missing a trick imo).

Hi Freo my expectation is the mine is ramping up at the start of 2024 so 2024 will see some production but not a whole year at full gas. I have 24-27 months for the mine build I've seen both figures and I hope the engineering work this year will have optimised the build so it can be brought in at the lower figure. I hope we are building early in the new year. No doubt company will enlighten us re: the schedule once funding is secured.

salmonn indeed just fun - but my guesses are my guesses and I stand by them! All contra-guesses valid however...
I'm just hoping we find out next week! Been a long wait and all that....

VV - I doubt it, to workaround that could they not just announce at 2.30pm or whenever TSX opens? The last RNS was first announced late on TSX.

30th September RNS: "Credit approval from the full syndicate is the catalyst for finalising the other components of the overall financing requirement for Araguaia. As previously announced, the process with the offtake partner and strategic investor is well advanced, and we look forward to updating the market on its conclusion, alongside financial close of the Senior Debt Facility in the coming months."

It is November. I would argue November is 'in the coming months'. Who will be surprised if we get an RNS this week or next? I won't be. There will be no surprise that the deal that has taken 3 years since Endevour were appointed is announced, and is a good one. Whether or not it was suggested on twitter!

I'll go first:
"the offtake partner" = Glen
and
"strategic investor" = Teck

GLA

I can live with 5-7% per day. Better than bank interest :)

On that basis I'm a bit surprised the sp hasn't risen more - of course I've seen this before with companies where there have been a few false dawns, punters don't quite believe it till they see it type thing. I'm around 90% confident we will hit this milestone this time but I'm fully positioned won't be adding. 13p is still cheap for what this will be producing though, easy double here once production is established properly. GLA

Helpme1 more or less November. As the October loan repayment has been rescheduled for end of November along with the November payment, we assume Goldstone are going to to try to make both payments from first production.

The shareprice shrugs its shoulders at the idea that Horizonte has acquired the ability to raise $100m USD worth of equity via a variety of possible mechanisms on TSX. Nothing to see here, apparently. No indication at all that the final piece(s) of the jigsaw are imminent, and nothing to indicate who the 'strategic investor' who may prefer their $100m USD of shares to be quoted in CAD 'thank you very much'. Christ on a bike how many clues does the market need :) One day people will wake up and go 'how did I miss that it was so obvious'. All IMHO! Personally I'm revising (upwards) my post finance estimates on the sp on todays news. GLA

Lawrence - for V figures do you use Vale's study for the 46kt? I think Horizonte's PFS is 25kt/yr (it isn't broken down by stage of development but I assume they would build in 2 stages) - but of course - fairly moot because the JV partner will want bigger goddamit just because they can (and it will make them more money). Either which way 29kt A1+A2 + 25kt V (Horizonte sized) is still >50kt/annum and >$1bn turnover on nickel >$20k/t.

Elution facilities are like buses. You wait ages for one then......
(sorry Tuesday joke). GLA

Thanks jd that's what I'm reading on twitter too. Optionality around 2 elution facilities remains a possibility to ramp up production (twice the facility twice the gold lets hope). Exciting times.

I think it's risky strategy for Teck to have to make an offer which gets rejected I can't see that as part of the gameplan. That is then public information and other majors will jump on it (and start bidding possibly). I think if they make an offer they want a T/O, simple. If they don't want a T/O they will want to avoid having to make an offer. All IMHO.

TDT perhaps it can but it is probably precarious for the company if someone has >30% control it is probably very close to the T/O scenario.

The $100m cornerstone (if we assume 100% equity) and the relatively low remaining capex (assume $150m) really helps us here. By my calcs under no scenario can equity to the cornerstone be done at less than 8p, and probably closer to 9p if I ignore options. So already, by any calculation I can do which preserves 30%, equity will be done at higher price than todays price. Assumptions above.

I don't understand why people would rule out a higher price. Immediately on finance at 50% NPV the buyer is seeing their investment value at ~20p (my other calc below) why they hell wouldn't they pay 11p for that? They certainly can't buy 500m-700m shares on the open market - if they did not only do they go over the 30% threshold but they push the SP up north of 20p anyway.

I'll stop speculating because we don't know, but watch this space in the coming weeks. The deal will be a good one - I know it.

Rover - I got a similar number the reason mine rounds to 14p is I included outstanding options for the other 100-150m shares. Probably not technically correct of course my calc because Teck have to stay under currently issued capital 30% and not the enlarged capital which may become effective when options are exercised.

Speaking of options hopefully a bunch have lapsed in the years of covid delay....