Member Info for uncertain

I am uncertain about
1. When the next RNS is coming and what will be in it
2. Whether we have reached the bottom in our current retrace
3. Even a ballpark figure of how much oil is down there
4. Even less idea about how much of it we can get out
5. The price, if any, that the main holders would accept for a buyout
6. The probability of this being taken private at some point
7. How many days there are before Theresa May resigns

I am off now for an exciting afternoon out in Bradford, during which I will not worry about any of the above. I will rejoin you all for the morning RNS speculation on Friday

OK so let me put it another way - I am only interested in the bang!

if the sp is to rise noticeably. A small slide back is inevitable without it. Elliott waves and other TA analysis are also not too helpful IMO at this juncture. Give us news please Mr Carver, preferably unambiguous news is clear terms

Small correction - I meant recovery rate of 0.1 or 10%, not 0.1% which is of course far smaller!

Ibyb, presumably you want someone to calculate the volume of the oil- bearing rock times the proportion of that which is both oil and itself recoverable then convert that into barrels at 0.16 cu m per barrel, finally multiplying that by the net profit per barrel.

Four comments
1. I have no idea what the recoverable oil proportion of oil bearing rocks is, or ranges between, as I am not a geologist

2. The profit per barrel has atttracted a number of guesses recently, both for in the ground (around $2-5) or out ($10-20). We need a little more certainty about these numbers as well, and having limited knowledge of the industry I can't help here either

3. If there really is 58sq km at an average of 100m intervals (and that is only medium hype on this board at present) then obviously there is 5.8cu km of oil bearing rock down there which is 5.8 billion cu m. or 36.25 billion barrels. Plug in a recovery rate of 0.1% and you get 3.625 billion barrels. Multiply this by your preferred profit per barrel and you get total life time profit. To get a value for the company you would then need to have a timescale for the exploitation of the asset and an expected average oil price over this period and perform a net present value calculation. Simples.

4. Or as CC says there are so many unknowns you shouldn't worry about it at all. The above calculations provide such impossibly large numbers that they are almost certainly wrong, or else we're all billionaires, Rodney

this morning. To be expected.

Tucson, I also fall into the old codger bracket (70 next month). Good to have you and Bottled back on the board. I thought you had abandoned me! Your memory about my KAZ dealings is correct, but I think I also explained how much I had lost on KAZ on the way down before that! I also think that KAZ may still have some good long term prospects, but post Trump I think. Trade wars are bad for metals, other than gold. I'm not currently in KAZ but may get back in if this one comes good.

Good luck everyone for what could be an interesting week.

I switched from H&L because alot of their communications irritated me with their political bias, which I thought was inappropriate. Fine if you're right wing though.

have their own personalities. Many of them are teenagers. Some of them are boring old codgers. Some them are on life support. This one is manic depressive and currently going through one of its manic phases (not entirely without reason).

The rational bit in all this is the MJF structure and the probability of an upcoming licence, which should give us a good profit, but that is more likely to be used to invest in proper exploitation of the deeps rather than a dividend.

The manic depressive bit comes from Dave (you are all dead in the water) to Flawless (RIP) (Next year, Rodney...)

The view I hold is that this share has been massively undervalued because of the market's bias against uncertainty (hence my handle). I tend to invest in shares like this because of the very considerable upside and the relatively low downside (although a little lower than expected of late!). Because of this very uncertainty I have no strong view about the eventual outcome. The oil is still in the ground. The technical problems are yet to be fully solved. It has been known for some time that there is an awful lot of oil down there. We don't know the objectives of the majority holders or their time frames.

Because experience has taught me that I am rubbish at day/short term trading (and also that it is bad for my mental health) I have held these since the last major manic period, which is why I am only just approaching breakeven. I intend to hold them throughout the rest of this year through ups and downs and will review the situation in the summer of 2020. As I think I have said before, I hold about 470,000 shares.

Good luck to those of you tempted to trade. I am sure there is money to be made for those of you who are good at it, but there is also the risk of missing out. The RNS could come any day. It is more likely to be good than bad, but it will come soon. Don't miss out!

Interesting thoughts cc, but it might be X above 13p which doesn't have to equal to Y. For instance X = 13 -(13/y) might work. Like you, I am just thinking out loud there.

The situation is better than the last time A5 marched us up to 24p (I wasn't invested then) but there remains the scepticism among some investors, having been bitten more than once, so they may continue to remain shy.

I am now getting close to breakeven, so feeling rather more cheerful than I was over the winter and early spring. The more people that are convinced to hold the better at this stage. Low trading volumes on the way down left the sp open to manipulation, so hopefully the same is true on the way up!

came at a strange time, well after the RNS and just before tthe weekend, with lots of volatility on Monday as a result as traders tried to make a quick buck. The drift downwards beforehand was partly because, given the disappointments and false dawns in this share, it was difficult to attract new investors.

The situation we have now is that there is new evidence that there may indeed be "something special" in the ground, but we still have to get it out. Whatever happened on Friday afternoon and Monday morning, we are now back with the same old problem of attracting new investors which will happen only with more solid news. In the meantime, shorters may mess around with this share.

Some of you think the shorters are playing with fire, and you may prove to be right. The MJF license will lift the share, but not by very much, because it is really expected. It is solid news from the deeps that will make it really take off. In the meantime the price is likely to fluctuate, although unlikely to revisit 5p IMO.

CC said earlier said don't rush to buy. He may well be right.

have had their fun late Friday and early today. We are now back in more sensible territory for the sp after a long and unreasonable slide and in a position to move up on the news when it comes. The RNS on Thursday was very interesting and obviously had loads of potential but CASP has form on such news, so something a bit more concrete is probably needed to shift the sp up substantially. Up to about 15p might be possible IMO, but proper news may be needed for more.
Of course, I would like to be wrong

LSE are putting the current price instead of the delayed price on the left of each post. Saves me logging on to my broker!

Substantial reduction in the spread since opening is also a good sign

CC Good idea to put the link on the board this morning for new investors attracted by the surge on Friday. But 4:26 a.m.!
Not in the UK or can't sleep?

Come on Degsy, you are Dave aren't you?

Is Degsy a reincarnation of Dave?

on this board. Did you notice CASP take off late on Friday (+75%). Might be worth a look over the weekend and possibly a buy early on Monday. DYOR

gla

is of course almost impossible to forecast. Shareholders who are actively following the news presumably will be unwilling to sell. There may be a few who haven't adjusted their sell price, or who simply haven't checked the price recently so don't know what is going on.

How quickly the news has spread to attract new shareholders is also unfathomable. Nevertheless I have a strong feeling that new interest is going to outstrip those willing to cash in by a good margin. Double figures seems a certainty, but possibly the sp will double on Monday. Any thoughts out there?

I had stepped back to checking this one about once a week at most, but with a strong belief that it would come back up some time this year. A very nice surprise this afternoon on my weekly check, rather sooner than expected, particularly after the recent downdrift. unfortunately not at breakeven yet but with a good chance of it next week.

Hallo Dave! Are you there? Anything to say?