Member Info for uncertain

a relatively small drop in price has brought the buyers back out quite quickly. Still sitting here with my half million shares, waiting patiently.

Dave, it's blatant, not blatent. Can't have your English going back downhill again. SXX have also not been doing so well recently, I notice. I sold mine at 29p and put the money in here. Since others are declaring their hand here, I have half a million, and intend to hold them throughout 2019.

I am glad to see that CC has morphed into FK. Every board needs its optimist, and he is doing a much better job of it than FK did. This share remains underpriced with massive upside potential if things work out. It's a gamble, but quite a good one

....and another flying start today....

or maybe hibernates, a thin dribble of sells escaping his snoring mouth.

Hi pushme. I am no better off than CEY I am afraid. My main investment is in CASP, which recently had a sudden drop in value just as bad as CEY after an adverse RNS. Like CEY I believe it has long term legs, but don't know when it will start running again.I did avoid the big drop in CEY, selling around the 150 mark, but jumped out of the frying pan into the fire. Having been burnt once, I decided to stop in CASP for the medium term.

Nice to see my old diapog idea still knocking around. I used it to get an idea of whether gold was going down or the dollar was going up (or vice versa) as it was sometimes difficult to distinguish the two.

I remain out of CEY (although I sometimes follow the conversation) but I am a bit perplexed that the sp has not responded to the substantial rise in the £pog. It was always my contention that the CEY sp responded to the $pog in the short run and the £pog in the long run, so perhaps that is it - the sp will respond next year. The sentiment is however against the sector as a whole, and trust in CEY management to underpromise and overperform has evaporated, so pehaps that is what is going on.

Whatever the case, CEYseems stuck at the moment, but I have no doubt it will recover over the next year or so. The question is when to get back in?

yesterday afternoon. £30k inside ten minutes. By contrast the sells are generally small and spread out. Small investors are closing their positions but at least one person thinks it's worth building a stake.

By any standards the trading is thin and will remain so until we have substantial news.

When Dave was going through his personality change and appeared not to have a good grasp of the English language, then no-one took him seriously. Now he is saying the same things more cogently, suddenly he has friends.

Dave has no skin in the game and never has had, by his own admission. Keep posting JD, we need a good balance of optimism and realism with a dash of warning pessimism to keep us all going through the winter. We are not far off the shortest day. After xmas, we can all start thinking about the Easter bounce.

Mr C. Don't sit in front of your screen all day. Turn your computer off until March and stop worrying about it.

To be fair, CC did suggest a bottom of about 6p some months ago. There are so many unknowns in this situation that prediction is very difficult. We don't know what the reserves estimate for MJF will look like. We don't know if the deeps will ever flow, or if they do, when that might happen. We don't know if there is an intention to take the compant private when some unknown criterion is met.

The amount of things we don't know represents an advantage to me. The market always undervalues when there is uncertainty. This makes me mildly optimistic. Of course there are some things that we do, more or less, know. Things often slow down in the winter in Kazakhstan. They are proceeding slowly because they are relying on shallows revenue to finance deeps exploration. The conditions are difficult and things will often go wrong, but the get it right (if they do). The market got over excited last spring and probably will be very cautious in 2019, rising on outcomes rather than expectations

Taking all this together, I think we are probably in for a fairly quiet winter and that CASP might be expected to rise slowly on good interim news. My feeling is that with a following wind we could get back to 10p in the late spring, and possibly make 15p next autumn with a flowing deep. Wilder estimates of the share price will have to wait for later years. CC's worst case scenario approach to valuation is quite good under the current circumstances..

The trouble with this train is that there is never any timetable. Its as bad as Northern Rail. I have put my hat on, but I'm not holding onto it yet. The train could leave tomorrow, or it might be 2020. I'm definitely catching this train, but it will leave when it wants to.

Dave, great English, poor analysis. Keep trying but only 1/10 for that one

Selling this afternoon. Looks like not everyone is so convinced!

looking here for a while have been caught out here. It all goes to show that forecasting is a difficult business, particularly when it concerns the future.

I think I still hold by what I said earlier about the likely tentative response of the market until firm news is available, but possibly we will have firm news fairly soon!

so the MMs could push it one way or the other relatively easily if they wanted to. I think they are relatively happy with the recent flurry of activity and understand that not much more can be generated without significant news.

There are a small number of people still giving up the ghost and reducing their position to invest elsewhere but most of that activity is probably over now IMO and people still holding are being patient in the hope of recouping money next year. New purchases will come with the realistic possibility of a rise (small for the reserves estimate and large for the deeps) but this will be more tentative than last spring because of the renewed loss of belief in the company

There's not a lot of point in looking at the moment. As CC says we have to wait for the spring now. The SP is unlikely to move much without some news. There may be some shift before the end of the year if we get a good estimate of shallow reserves, but any major shift will be on hope of success with the deeps. After the disappointments of 2018, we will probably need some actual success, rather than the promise of it to move the SP significantly.

How about a 15p party?

This share is currently extremely boring. This can, however be thought of as a good thing. I was lucky enough to get out of CEY KAZ and SXX before their recent extremely exciting slides in value.

In one way, however, this share is extremely exciting. Everyday you can log on and know that an RNS should be coming. OK it doesn't often arrive, particularly when it should, but there is always that remote possibility. And you also know that when it does it will say something completely unexpected.

This doesn't sound like you Mr C. Do you know something or are you being ironic?

the dollar price of gold was 1210, then fell and has finally returned to 1210 today. Two months ago the pound sterling price of gold was 950 and today it is 914, still substantially down.

Having said that, there does seem to be a bit of a rally today in all currencies. Nevertheless, some of it is a fall in the dollar rather than a rise in the pog. Possibly some of it is a drop in the FTSE and a search for safe havens - a stock market crash is overdue after all.

Every board needs its optimist. No-one can deny FK was that! OK a bit rampy but in a transparent friendly kind of way.

Not much is happening here - trading very thin; RNSs even thinner on the ground. Winter is coming and it will get even quieter. A little positivity is what we need from time to time!

Canada +++ has always been an option that the EU would agree to. I think this puts a safety net under the negotiations, and I now expect the pound to recover, possibly by xmas and definitely by Easter.

For those of you who remember my previous posts, this will mean a fall in the £pog, possibly down to 800 and a consequent drop in the CEY sp. possibly by as much as 30%, since it is a geared play on gold. I therefore re-iterate my concerns about the risks of a good Brexit that I made before going on hoilday. My buy price is therefore reduced to around 70p.

Next year, on the other hand, should be good!