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are listed as sales, yet the sp has risen. This suggests to me that the MMs have an order, but they are having to raise the price in order to fill it, and that they are short of shares in their back pockets.

Any other interpretations?

but the actual prices being paid/received do seem to be slightly on the up, despite the quoted range not moving yet.

82p Fidelio? That's a very precise number. Do you have a rationale?

Yes CC, quite strange sp behaviour. Shares usually overact to adverse news and then bounce back, the time taken and the change in value being roughly proportional to the digestability of the news. This is all the more true on AIM.

Likewise a strong case can be made for CASP having quite a firm floor value because of the MJF structure, but this does not prevent other shares from overshooting downwards in response to bad news (CEY and KAZ are two recent examples)

I am usually resistant to conspiracy theories, as I think they often repesent lazy thinking, but finding a good alternative explanation for recent CASP sp movements is not easy at the moment. No doubt MMs can influence price on AIM, particularly at these low volumes, but if this is the case ( and I want to make it clear that I am making no such allegation), the next question would be why are they doing what they appear to be doing.

Answers on a postcard....

A nice tight trading range developing today, although as usual based on very low volumes, which I thinking suggests we are bottoming out on the reaction to the RNS.

Selling seems unwise at present as there could be a little bounce later. I am in any case waiting for one of the three outcomes FD suggested may occur this year before even considering such a move.

with the RNS while suffering from jetlag after returning from a holiday in California. My impression is that this RNS is a very typical CASP story. Does that mean we should all sell and move on as some are suggesting here?

I don't think so. Firstly only fools would have believed that Clive knew that the deeps would flow this summer, or that FK was not ramping. Oil is a very uncertain business, and these wells are proving particularly difficult. Anyone buying and holding over the summer must have known that this was the case.

Has the situation changed? Once again, I don't think so. CASP wants these wells to flow. The shallows continue to provide revenue to try and make them flow. Access to finance not covered by shallows revenue continues to be offered, although this may possibly end up with some dilution. Clive's bullshit needs to be continually ignored. This share remains a good punt, with relatively little downside and possibly a very good upside. When or indeed whether this upside will materialise continue to be unanswerable questions.

If you were holding this share for the right reasons before, it continues to have a possible large upside, but requires patience. Having bought relatively recently, I may have more patience than LTHs.

Ignore the bullshit
Have patience
Don't be too greedy
GLA

Hi posidude. Nearly all goldies are substantially down. The price of gold has been falling and there is negative sentiment in the market. There may be some POG related stuff as well, but I sold up here a while ago and am not up to date. Looking with interest at the current fall for a possible re-entry price though.

POG has guaranteed the IRC bank loan and is a major shareholder in IRC

Hi shareminator, I agree that Trump's policy will probably end badly, but also with Rebess that this could be some way down the line. I agree that tariffs and rate rises are pushing the $ up at present. A more protectionist world may be the consequence of all this, and I agree this tends not to have good effects, but it may happen anyway.

I was a bit unsure about the bit where you talked about whether the company sold its gold in $ and the effect on the company's valuation. Probably just me, but I couldn't quite follow that.

It really doesn't matter which currency the gold is sold in. Putting my point more straightforwardly, I was saying that if the £ appreciates against the dollar, then any dollar denominated CEY profits would be worth less in terms of pounds, and therefore, from a fundmentals point of view the sp should come down. A short cut to going through everything in terms of dollars and translating them back to pounds, is to say there is likely to be a link between the £pog and the CEY sp which is also quoted in £. Hence I often say it is the £pog which we should be looking at.

The falling commodity prices at present are a mixed picture. Partly they are falling because of uncertainty about trade and trade wars. Partly they are falling in $ terms simply to balance out the rise in the value of the $ against other major currencies

OK, thanks for the history lesson. All helpful in improving the picture of CASP in my head.

Hi Shakhtar, I have had this discussion with people a few times over the years that I have held CEY (from 2013 to spring 2018). The company's operating currency is the dollar, as you say, with some costs (although not many) denominated in Egyptian pounds. The points you make about changes in the exchange rates of the Egyptian pound and the Egyptian inflation rate are of course correct, since this is the producing country, and that will have an effect on about (from memory) 10% of the cost base. Changes in these figures will have a small effect on profitability, and it is true that I have not allowed for this, partly because I am a bit lazy and haven't unearthed the data (I don't really think it would have a significant effect if I did.

My argument about the pound and the dollar stands however, as I think I have persuaded fellow board members in the past. Neither currency is the currency of the producing country. Proftability expressed in one currency can be directly converted to profitability in the other currency by using the exchange rate.

Of course some of the revenues (gold) and cost (oil) are denominated in dollars traditionally. The actual price of these commodities are determined by worldwide supply and demand, plus expectations about the future (and also the shennanigans Tibbs often talks about). If the dollar rises against other currencies, the price of them in dollars comes down, as has happened in gold, copper and oil recently.

You are right to say that the market (lazily in my view) responds to changes in the dollar price of gold without thinking if it is the dollar rising or the commodity falling. I agree that happens in the short run and said so. I think this gets corrected by the market in the medium run.

As for the reliance on TA, this is one of my main arguments against it. Analysis done in the dollar pog will give different results from analysis done in the £pog or the EUpog. The analysis of the $pog at present will in my view be saying more about the movement of the dollar than the movement about gold. Mixed signals.

Your arithmetical example about the effect on the CEY sp is one that I would agree with (the result that is), but like you I agree that that wouldn't happen straight away. I am arguing from fundamentals and my argument about the fundamentals are largely correct I believe. Sometimes with arguments about fundamentals, the market takes a little time to come round to what the fundamentals because they get snared up with all that TA stuff

Can we make a distinction between the current, often revolving debt to oil traders and a major shareholder, and the debt that will be needed if we get the deeps flowing, or if exploitation of the MJF structure expands significantly.

I am not too worried about the low level working capital debt which is what I think we have at present. The development debt mentioned by cc would only come in if we have significant successes, and I also don't worry too much about that either, since CASP are being prudent in delaying this expenditure until we have good news, but like cc, I agree that this second category of debt would be better external

and find a discussion about CASP on this board this morning! Welcome to the club of people who got the RNS date wrong Gritster. I joined some time ago.

I am not an oil expert so the technical stuff about flow rates and pressure and comparison with other fields' histories in the area is really interesting for me. In the future, when it may be more relevant, I may be able to make some contribution on exchange rates and economic forecasts which is more my kind of thing, but for the present, I am listening and learning

This topic may not seem like a very probable outcome, but negotiations often look unpromising until the eleventh hour. Let us suppose that the outcome of Brexit is judged successful in the markets, maybe some time in November. What would the effect on the £ be? Let us suppose it goes up 10% which would move us back up to $1.43, a rate we managed not so long ago.

What would that mean for the £pog? Well this evening it is £917.50/oz so provided the $pog remains the same, it would fall to £825.75/oz. Since CEY is priced in £, it is the £pog that matters for the sp. This is a price that last obtained in February 2016, before the referendum. At the same time the CEY sp was about the 80 mark, having just risen from the 60s in the previous month.

That price was in the context of a rising £pog, without profit share, and without the current production worries. It is this kind of thinking which is stopping me from buying just at the minute. It is my observation CEY follows the $pog in the short run, but the £pog in the medium term. A successful Brexit could see CEY back in the 60s in 2019 following this kind of logic.

Thought it was about time I backed up my negativity with a bit of analysis. Don't worry about it too much, the chances of a no deal still look fairly good!

Sorry earthling, all my fault as I started the thread. I won't do it again, but can't undo it now its started!

Hi Sotolo, I think the answer to that one is that we can't know at present, so it depends on your attitude to risk. I said I would take another look at 90p, but for me its still got some downside potential.

I am having similar discussions with people over on KAZ who can't believe it will fall any further. The market often over corrects, particularly with shares with uncertain outcomes. Copper is also down like gold, and neither Egypt nor Kazakhstan are reliable countries

Hi earthling, sorry if I sounded patronising - not intended. We are all grown ups on here and make our own decisions. As I have said beforer, I often get it wrong. Just putting in my two pennyworth like everyone else here. Good luck

If more people are selling than buying, then the price will go down, whatever the fundamentals. That's how the market works. We have started the day with another drop after the falls last week. That should tell you that people are nervous about buying this share at present.

Traders are nervous because they don't want to wait for a return, and this could carry on down for a while yet.Some long term holders, which I have been in the past, will wait until the drop is over, because we have more patience and also have looked into the past history of this share in more detail and are fully aware of the volatility it can exhibit.

Its still a good buy long term, earthling, but I am with redden on this one

I did get out at about 930, but this, I admit was pure good luck, as I switched the funds into CASP which I believed was about to lift off (it hasn't). Likewise I was very lucky to sell my CEY shares and my SXX shares, for the same reason.

I am not always as lucky as this, and certainly don't have a crystal ball. I base my idea that KAZ will fall further on past experience with the share, and, with other shares, on the way the market strongly dislikes uncertainty (hence my board name). The statementsyou read on this board that copper is about to rise because of the growth of electric cars is a bit previous in my opinion, although I am sure it will come.

I was surprised that KAZ rose so fast to the £10k mark, and sold early then had to buy back in again. I get things wrong quite often. You are right to be suspicious of derampers, but I am not one of them, just someone who posts his views, hoping they will be as useful to others as the information I get in turn from some other posters. In that way we can all gain.

Getting in at current prices is something I would not criticise at all, as there is no known method of calling the bottom correctly, and buying at these prices will turn a profit over a period of months if not years. I am just expressing my view that we could have a little way to fall yet.

When I buy, i will let you know. Good luck

Hi, ifonly. Kaz has a bit of history of wild swings, falling below 100 not so long ago, then rising to over 1000 recently before dropping to its current levels. The fall in the price of copper is one of the main reasons for the current drop, but the announcement of the purchase of a major concession in a remote and inhospitable part of Russia has also been influential.

People like me, who have burned by other major drops in this share in the past (but also profited from its recent rise) are being cautious about when to get back in as we know from previous experience that when it drops it can drop a long way. i am waiting for 400 before having another look, as I have posted on here recently. However it is never easy to call the bottom and buying in now will almost certainly net you a profit eventually if you are patient.

Good luck

Good effort to get the discussion back to CASP, fk, but the truth is that we just don't know and will have to wait and find out. In the mean time, we will fill the board with random discussions.

For what is worth, I think CC is right about Spain, but wrong about Poland. But then I expect you are just about to leave Poland and move to your property in Spain at this time of year?