Member Info for uncertain

Hi MO I also made a mistake earlier by assuming it was in £ not $ and therefore making a completely wrong calculation. It's a little odd to make the target in $ when the share is quoted in £

fortnight if you include the Annual Report. Whichever way you look at it, we are averaging an RNS every 2 to 3 days. You can't fault them for thier enthusiasm. Can they keep this pace up?

Since there are 1824m shares in existence, then an increase in capitalisation of £500m means they get £3m every time the sp goes up by 27.4p. Each time that happens, based on my current shareholding, I get £128,838. I think I am happy with the balance of rewards there.

Bye Tucson, I think you will have made a good profit here. I expect to see you back here later on. Keep an eye on it!

are mainly here for the fundamentals. The recent rise has attracted in traders who are looking for quick profits and who study TA and charts rather than balance sheets and geological results. The presence of such short term and fairly ignorant holders means that we will get counter intuitive responses to RNS's such as this one, because the STHs know Jack sh*t

The response of LTH to the RNS on this board and over on ADVFN is very positive because they know what they are talking about.

My usual reaction to a britishbullsh*t recommendation is to do the opposite. I will take this particular piece of advice as an indication that a very large treeshake is due. I will in fact hold long, but if i were a daytrader I might sell some!

Tucson, it was definitely Bottled who told you about CASP as he told me too. I may possibly have told you about CEY as I was in there between 2013 and 2018 and also posting on KAZ. CEY is not a particularly good bet at the moment of course, although if it falls much further it may become tempting.

Tell us the story of how you chose your name

CC I think you meant concert party not convert party. The convert party could be used to describe the free floaters who have been converted into true CASP believers

I own 0.152% of the free float. Anybody else?

Also not selling. I may have to take a tiny top slice to pay for a nice holiday, but certainly not yet.

Probably the sp is coming down simply because a good run of buys was followed by a long run of sells. Old fashioned supply and demand. Probably some of the sells came from daytraders who had bought early in the day and wanted to take a quick profit.

is without an RNS!

Is that the 1 mile low club? Nice rise into the close

Also, this being AIM, there is more scope for irrational exuberance

Hi Tucson, I also have relatively little experience in oil, but from what I have learnt over the last year, I think there will be a series of announcements over the summer. The big news may well come late summer / early autumn as you suggest, but I think a move above 17p may well come before then. On the KAZ front, I agree that it is largely tied to the price of copper, but I am less optimistic than you about the recovery in the price of copper. No doubt that will come but perhaps not this year. LME copper stock figures have been rising again recently, and as you may remember I use that as a strong indicator of likely price movements (inversely). The trade war does not of course help. Trump needs more progress there to energise his base and attract floating voters late next year

When I give advice it is based on what I am thinking and doing. No real difference when it comes down to it, but thanks for the information about what you are thinking and doing if that's how you prefer to put it.

My experience on other boards is that if we all do that, then pooled knowledge and thinking is of benefit to everyone. Apart from Dave of course. As you say we are all in waiting mode at present, so posting is as much about mutual support, and encouragement of new entrants to the share as anything else. Plus passing the time. If it is all based on facts, it isn't ramping!

Thanks for the advice cc. I fully agree at present. I am just thinking ahead to CASP in the 50-100p range and what I would do then. Some diversification I think at that level, but for now I am ignoring the conventional wisdom that you should have a range of shares to reduce risk.

I do often take a portfolio approach, but it is a portfolio of uncertainty as opposed to a portfolio of risk. Because of my fundamentals approach I do have a backlog of shares I have knowledge of. I have a buy price of 65p for CEY, and if it were not for the potential here, I would have been back in GFRD, LAM, and KAZ by now. I do however like to scan for new potential shares that I can buy, hold and wait for until they come good.

I agree that TA, which I do not fully trust, will probably result in an AIM frenzy at some point here, and then I might be tempted to trade.

who have an estimate of how high this could go without further news? I always invest on fundamentals myself, plus searching for the uncertainty premium as I think I have explained before.

We are moving out of deep uncertainty into relative uncertainty just now, so TA becomes more relevant in these circumstances. I have always been too lazy to invest the time into understanding TA. Dealing with uncertainty takes all my concentration!

I am only asking out of curiosity. I have absolutely no intention of selling at these ridiculously low prices. We are also not yet down to the level of uncertainty which attracts the institutional investors and until we get there, more uncertainty premium is still available to us.

I am 100% in here - no other share holdings whatsoever. I am however beginning to research my next uncertainty project for when I feel the uncertainty premium is low enough here to diversify. I am currently looking at BCN, Any thoughts?

Gaspunter, I checked CC's post distribution over the last month and found no posts of the kind you describe. Is your name really Dave??

to today's news is interesting. My view earlier in the spring was that we would have to wait until later in the summer before hard news would result in a major rerate of this share. By hard news I mean oil coming out of the ground and under flow test. We still have to wait until later in the summer before such news is possible.

The news that is coming in now is very interesting, and for another share might lead to a major rerate, but CASP has got form on false dawns so there will be many people waiting for much longer before taking the plunge again.

Another grand day in prospect for CASP. Quite a few grand I'm hoping. The information in the second RNS may take the market a little while to digest, but the intial uptick is welcome. The prospect of a series of RNSs showing progressive improvements and discoveries means that whatever happens to the sp today is merel a foretaste of what is to come. Also we need to remember that the oil is still in the ground.