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Tomorrow's Thursday........

One of my favourite plays is Waiting for Godot by Samuel Becket. In the play, Godot never actually turns up, but the actors learn a lot about themselves talking about what would happen if he did. This discussion board sometimes has a resemblance to that play.

Beckett also wrote a play called Endgame, which I think is where we are with CASP this year, and another play called Happy Days (although the content is not particularly happy) which is where we will be in 2021

Gritster, if it gets back to 14p (and I think it will in the second half of the year) it will be worth staying for longer

imac1 assumed 100% international prices in calculations which will never be the case and will be particularly untrue of 2020 with no international licence for the deeps for at least the first half of the year, as well as considerable optimism of all wells planned.
A dividend yield of 20% would be a more realistic guess, rising to 60% in 2021

That's flow tests, not flow teats. Sorry

I argued in a recent post that there are strong reasons for thinking that the SP would rise more slowly in the first part of the year and more strongly in the second half providing the deeps campaign was successful. Basically the argument is that CASP has serious credibility problems with the market because of previous false dawns, and will have to earn back the confidence of the market by a series of successful flows in the deeps followed by flow teats that deliver. It is likely that there will be some setbacks in this process, even with Baker Hughes, and some normal delays such as the chemical tests to get the acid treatment right, which the market will be impatient about.

Nevertheless the market's reaction to the recent news is bonkers. Traders have recognised that this is a volatile share they can make money from, and the actions of traders is swamping the more sensible view of investors. Strong hold.

The market does not have confidence in this share as yet. We need at least 30 days flow on A5 and another deep in play before that changes much. There have been too many false dawns for the market to take this excellent RNS seriously.

Thanks for the useful calculations IMAC. A couple of observations: firstly quite a lot of the oil will be sold at domestic rather than international prices this year - more in the case of the deeps than the shallows until an internatinoal licence is granted for the deeps; secondly the industry average PE ratio is unlikely to apply to CASP, although working out the correct PE ratio is a bit of a puzzle. On the one hand, while poor confidence in the company persists, a substantially lower PE ratio would be expected. On the other hand once (and if) confidence in the company is restored, a higher than average PE ratio could be anticipated because of the very clear potential for growth as thenumber of wells in both deeps and shallows continue to rise.
The implication for the share price of these comments is a slow rise in the SP as the news comes in over the first half of the year, but possibly a more substantial rise in the second half of the year if your predictions come to pass (my guess is that the shortfall on revenue due to selling at domestic prices would be more than offset by the potential for growth that the market would see under these circumstances)
Of course you have to be right about your predictions. I would be more certain about the 16 MJF wells than the 4deeps, although both are perfectly possible

it's already in single digits and the week has barely started.

Oil is up again this morning and likely to rise further in the immediate short term (and longer in the probable outcome of reduced oil output from the Middle East in the event of a military conflict)

In the past, oil price variations don't seem to have had a very strong correlation with CASP SP, probably because of the considerable uncertainty in the market about how much recoverable oil there is. If there is good news about the deeps over the next month then we may be entering a period where the oil price is more significant, which may add to the boost from the news itself and aid a breakout from the current trading range

And of the three, I think confirmation of flow test is the most important

As I remember, we have been here before and blockages of various kinds have prevented further progress, so we can't know that the deeps have been cracked just yet, but the signs are good - worth hanging in there for IMO. The previous false dawns may have persuaded people to sell a little earleir this time, or erhaps it's just been recognised as a good trading share.

A good decision for a trader perhaps but a bad decision for an investor. My view would be that they could expect another good rise today, but I will be proved right or wrong on this very shortly. The small percentage of shares in play means this share can swing quite a lot in both directions, but it has tended to go over 13p in previous spikes on good news like this.

I am holding, but that is what I do all the time.

Wow, someone this morning thought 11p was a good price to offload £33k worth of CASP. Not good timing in my opinion, but great for those of you with a bit of spare cash to get on board.

Some people have suggested that the current delay may be a combination of cash flow issues and getting BH on site to do everything they need to do at one time. If that is the case an RNS on further development of the MJF structure may be the best news we can hope for at the moment as it will unlock the investment in the deeps. Information, having improved for a while, is now poor again and this leads to speculative moves against the share as a few people decide they don't want to stay the distance and that share has returned to it previous levels of frustration. It doesn't seem to take many sells for the MMs to move the price quite a distance.

This is disappointing, but I personally think that it is a matter of delay rather than failure (although that is not the same as saying there will be no individual failures on some of the deep wells). Wouldn't want to be out of this over the winter.

Hi MO, I am also an optimist, just not necessarily about much happening before Xmas! I wouldn't want to be out of this over the winter.

I read this RNS as a slight delay on the MJF structure and no news worth reporting on the deep wells. The market will continue to price this on the MJF structure alone until something fairly substantial comes up on the deep wells. We could do with considerably more explanation of why progress is so much slower than expected on the deeps, but on the positive side there is nothing here to suggest major foul ups or wells being abandoned.

I am now forecasting 10p by xmas!

I'm still backing your "20p by Xmas" prediction Belles, but I am also in agreement with Divermike that what is needed is patience, as anyone who has been in this share for a while must appreciate.

Brexit is much better at plumbing the depths than CASP

When I started this converesation off this morning all I really meant to say was that we would probably get an RNS soon. I believe Thursday is their favourite day.