Member Info for uncertain

Well Mr Cautious, if you don't expect much you won't be disappointed. I think CC should publicly withdraw his joke about your first name being Over, and apologise! I also didn't expect much, although the leaked non RNS did make me briefly optimistic. The next two or three months may bring us something good, or as Belles said earlier, maybe 2020 or 21 are the years for CASP

No doubt CASP will take a tumble in the morning as the chancers run out of the door (some were no doubt taking an early profit late this afternoon). Some good bargains for the patient to be had I think.

I think they probably had to take it down once they realised their mistake or had it pointed out to them under RNS rules. No doubt it will pop up later today after an RNS with the xx filled in.

No Belles, that was a joke. I agree we may have to wait until 2020, but any deep flowing will put a rocket under the sp, so holding is my strategy for now.

Well there was a slight increase in production! And at least there wasn't any bad news. Perhaps they were badgered into issuing an RNS by all the comments on this board. No doubt some chancers that got in here recently on the hope of a significant announcement will offload today and tomorrow.

I wonder what the BOD want to talk about?

Good idea Jacksdad, or a good joke anyway. Wednesday will bring what Wednesday will bring. We should be used to news that isn't news by now in this share, and good news that turns bad. Patience is the key here - September is when I shall be thinking about where we'vereally got to and Wednesday in my opinion will be a little staging post on the way with, in all probability, relatively little significance. I would be delighted to be proved wrong.

Before this mornings RNS, we had no idea what news was coming or when it might arrive. The position after the RNS is precisely the same except that we now know that CASP wants to improve its relationship with analysts and maybe even investors. Given the limited success of previous efforts in this direction, the sp is unlikely to rise much, but a further fall may have been averted

It will be August at the end of next week. I have been waiting for August (thought the surge earlier in the year might have been a bit premature anyway). Also, September and October could be good. If we're not getting anywhere by November you could sell up for the winter, but I don't think I would do that.

The point is that it is not groundhog day
1. We havethe MJF licence whih unlocks funding for the deeps
2. We are paying for proper drilling companies to increase our chances in the deeps
3. We have more evidence than before about the extent of the field
4. There may now be options at the Devonian levels

There is of course one way in which it is a bit groundhoggish, and that is the return to CASP RNS incompetence, but otherwise...

Belles, I think you are writing CASP off for the year a little early there. There could be news from one of the deeps in the autumn, or perhaps more than one. The cash flow from the MJF licence will partly be used for equipment for development of the shallw wells, and this may divert money from the deeps, unles of course money is drawn down from available existing credit. I am guessing 20p plus by November.

MJF to steady the share price and give it a little boost, followed by a normal CASP RNS, which looks quite good to those of us who have been following it closely, but will seem like more prevarification and delay to the new buyers we need to boost the sp.
Looks like October could be a good month. I think it may remain relatively steady with small increases from minor news over the rest of the summer. Autumn is when it may happen but if not then, we know what happens in the winter, and we may have to wait until spring. Divis a long way off as they are choosing to invest in their own equipment to develop MJF at the same time as developing the deeps.

a waiting game, and many of you have waited much longer than me, but there is now a reasonable chance that significant results will happen this year. While we wait, without a deep well flowing, the sp may continue to drift down. Patience is the key.

Earlier in the spring a few posters suggested that August would be a good month for CASP. If there is no RNS before the AGM I will be very relaxed about it. There are plenty of opportunities for good news over the summer and into the autumn. If the sp falls, so what? Its done that before as we all know. One more dip before it skyrockets will just give more opporitunity for you punters out there with spare cash to top up one last time.

thanks for the clarification CC. So if the oil represents say 40% of the volume of 5.7 cu km and recoverability is 25%, then my figure of 10% of the volume would work for an estimate of recoverable oil.

All dependent on Gaffney Cline's estimates of course. Once again my geological ignorance is the problem here. I have no idea whether that 40% figure is at all likely.

Crusty, 19.6 x 20.9 is about 410 sq. km. It may be about 20 km on a side, but there are about 400 squares of 1km by 1 km in it. This makes Tengiz between 7 to 8 times bigger in area than Airshagyl which is only 57sq km and Tengiz also has an oil column which may be about 10 times deeper (depending on |Devonian discoveries at Airshagyl)

CC, is that 25-30% of the oil itself, or 25-30% of the volume in which the oil is found?

All the calculations below are based on the idea that the oil field stays at the same area all the way down. My understanding of Tengiz is that it widens considerable deeper down. I don't think we have any information on that in relation to Airshagyl as yet.

My calculation based on no widening as it deepens gives 5.7 cu km as per captainando which is equivalent to 5.7 billion cu metres which in turn gives us at 6.29 barrels to the cu m. gives us just over 33 billion barrels.

But of course this is not a vast lake of oil; it is porous rock with oil in it. The total amount of recoverable oil will depend on two things:the proportion of the find which actual oil as opposed to rock and the proportion of that oil which can be actually recovered.

Supposing just 10% of this volume is recoverable oil, then we would have about 3.31 billion barrels, which then needs multiplying by the net profit per barrel i.e. the price oil less extraction costs less licence and royalty payments less other taxes. If we use a conservative figure of $10 fo this we get $33 b Of course this value accrues over a period of many years and so will need to be discounted back to the present. Without doing any such calculation, I would hazard a guess that this might bring the valuation down to $18b which would come out as $10 a share or about £8 at todays exchange rate. Of course this value would not come straight away, as confidence needs to grow in the share; and by the time confidence has grown some of the oil will have been extracted so the value will be less which leads me to a valuation of £5 per share in 5 years time

I am not a geologist so this calculation is probably full of holes. Please shoot it down in flames so I can see the error of my ways.

situation in Kazakhstan? The current election to replace the longstanding president Nursultan seems to be only superficially democratic and there are quite a few demonstrations and arrests going on. Could it have any knock on effects on CASP? I am thinking mainly about delay to the licence rather than anything more dramatic

The share price has risen rapidly from under 5p. Some people will take profits. Traders come on board and offload when they think they have made enough, or when their astrological charts tell them to. It is difficult to know when people will choose to take their profits.

The price also may not reflect true value if the sp is being manipulated by persons unknown (allegedly).

openBlue, I have to ask you, are you relatively new to shareholding as well as to CASP. You seem perplexed by this turn of events (rather than outraged which is the oldtimers usual response). manipulation of share prices is not exactly unknown, although it is unwise to suggest openly who might be doing it.

The first RNS said the board were incentivised to increase the share price, but that is quite normal and what were they doing before anyway?. The second RNS may already have been discounted to some extent as the drill was going well and the extra size of the interval was expected. If you read some of the more outlandish comments on here, the RNS was a bit of a disappointment.

If you are relatively new to this share you may be unaware that we have been here before and it has all fizzled out. There are strong reasons for believing this time is different, but the market appears to want oil above ground before it takes CASP seriously this time.

1. The oil is still in the ground
2. CASP has absolutely terrible form on overpromising and under-delivering
3. This is AIM; the sp may be pushed around by persons unstated for reasons unknown (allegedly)
4. British Bullsh*te said is was a good bet so it was bouond to go down
5. A load of traders came on board took their profits and left
6. Some ignoramus shorters are under the impression that this share is still fair game.
7. They may still be right in the very short run

BUT this is an opportunity not a threat.

The market cap targets are in dollars not pounds. I made the same mistake yesterday

Sounds like your having a bad time fizzy.I was a little low when this dropped below 5p and I am still a little undewater by a small amount (although briefly saw profit this week).

Investing / gambling - they are not so different. There are many things over which we have no control, particularly the future. While the oil is still in the ground, this is a gamble. But it is a very good gamble.

AIM is a little bit like the wild west, but it can overshoot as much as it undershoots. A lot of patience is needed with this share. I think 2019 is going to be better than 2018, but may be we will have to wait until 2020. Most people owning this share know a lot more about patience than I do having been in for many more years.

Sleep well