Member Info for uncertain

on tiny volumes. Most people have not responded to the latest RNS with any thing other than "steady as she goes". I doubt that any regular posters here expected dramatic news in March. There may be something mildly more interesting next month, but the summer will be the time for take off IMO, provided things go moderately well

on this board has shot up over the last week. Alongside this, the politeness and mutual respect has also increased. While this is no guarantee that CASP will also shoot up, it does make following the share a more pleasant experience. Peace seems to have even broken out between CC and FK!

The only expertise that I can offer is in economics (retired lecturer) but that mainly consists of talking about uncertainty at the present. If Brexit continues to be a car crash, a falling pound makes any foreign share more valuable of course. The oil market itself seems to be recovering after a poor final quarter to last year. This stuff is fairly general and I am sure most of you know it anyway.

My main point is to thank those of you who have been spending time researching the situation with CASP. Long may it continue

Agreed Belles, late summer / early autumn for a big uplift, but there is plenty of possible interim news before then which might take us out of the doldrums

here, because the price is drifting down on tiny volumes, possibly managed down by MMs. The question is not what the price is today, but what the next few RNSs will bring. If 2019 turns out to be like 2018, then we may stay here or even drop.

Sentiment is not with this share because of the vast over-ramp by the BOD and others and the significant diasappointment last year. The potential upside does however remain large and patience is the key. I intend to wait out the summer and autumn and not worry too much about SP movements

Even as we speak, Santa is preparing for a special overnight journey from Kazakhstan to London, bringing a bright shiny RNS to drop down the AIM chimney. Unfortunately one of his reindeer is lame and he may be held up for a few days,and also one of his sleigh runners has gone out of alignment and needs rebalancing,plus the sleigh runway is currently blocked by a small but obstinate piece of metal, but HE IS COMING

because they underpromised and overperformed. Since selling my shares over a year ago, I have kept an eye on the BB with the idea of possible reinvestment. Unfortunately the management's record on forecasting output has declined recently, and I no longer have trust in them.

The rate of return on the share price still looks quite good, but a loss of trust, together with some uncertainty about the gold price in the air as well, will tend to keep a lid on the SP. The SP has simply responded to the drop in profits with a little bit extra for normal overshoot and perhaps a decline in trust.It sould now drift down in the absence of good news. GLALTH

to be the main cause of the current share price drop, although I see there is much discussion of it below. The percentage drop in share price is not too disimilar to the drop in profitability, particularly when taken after the profit share with the Egyptian government, because of the increase in their share from July 2018..

A rising pound and a falling POG aren't helping. Nevertheless I think there may be an overshoot as often happens with bad news. People are suggesting buying in the 80s. With a good Brexit outcome (I know it looks unlikely now) the upper 60s to 70s might be a better guess. This is where I put my re-entry price the last time I posted here and I'm sticking too it (although I missed some great trading opportunities over the last few months)

GLALTH

Still no guarantee of anything happening though! No rush, take it easy CASP, and when it happens make sure it's BIG

Agreed, Quaytec, its the deeps that will make the difference. International prices would be nice but I think might only lift us to the 8-11p range

Roll on March - or more probably April.

Hi Dave, just checked your posting history. In the last 30 days you have only posted about CASP, and yet you claim to have no shares and to be very pessimistic about the prospects for the company.

This is very bizarre behaviour. Do you own shares in other companies? Are you sure you have no CASP shares? Are you hoping to buy CASP shares, but at a lower price?

I am sure my fellow posters on this board would be fascinated by your answers to these questions.

a quiet month for CASPers. I will look in from time to time, but I am not really expecting anything before March at the earliest. The share price will probably move around a bit on very low volumes, but that is of very little consequence for holders

Dave only talks one orchid. Over on ADVFN FK "has 40p pencilled in for August". He talks the other orchid. The thing about orchids is that they have to be balanced out.

Yes, I looked them up. Put tax evasion into the search engine and you may have your memory jogged

Now where have I heard that name before? I am sure they are famous for something.....

So Bakhyt didn't back it!

I found investing in KAZ minerals equally frustrating and managed to both lose and gain a fair amount of money on it over the last 5 years or so (not currently invested). Kazakhstan is hardly a modern western state and "interesting" things happen there. This does not mean that they are not sometimes extremely successful from time to time.

KAZ dropped below 100 before bouncing back over 1000 ( it is currently about half way). CASP is definitely at the bottom end of its likely range IMO and as I have often said here the upside possibilities far outweigh the downside. .

seems to have persuaded a couple of very modest sells, and encouraged slightly less buying, but this trading really is very thin and is hardly a basis for price movement at all. As suggested below, perhaps an attempt by MMs to drum up business.

Patience is the key here, and apparently most shareholders have got this message

suggests that new buyers are wary of CASP after the (non) events of last year, but that on the other hand long term holders consider this is a very bad time to sell.

Nothing much will happen here until there is more news.

FK has reinflated on the other side (ADVFN)

Dave, how do you work out the value of a share? One approach is based on the expected flow of profits over a reasonable period into the future. The potential income from the shallows could put a floor price on CASP, and past suggestions on this board from this source have put this in the 6p to 8p range, where we are at the moment.

Of course this money is being spent on trying to crack the deeps because that is where the real money is. Since the deeps have not yet reliably flowed, the value of CASP must be based on the probability of the deeps being cracked. Unfortunately nobody knows what this probability is, and given recent failures, the market is currently placing a value of somewhere between zero and 1p on this probability materialising.

The sp of CASP is prone to fluctuate quite a bit because trading is usually very thin. It could drop below 6p again, but 2p seems a little fanciful. My view is that downside here remains low but the upside is very good.

It is very good of you Dave, spending your time warning us all here of the dangers while not being invested here yourself. However, please use facts rather than simple scaremongering as it does become very tedious

Que sera, sera. Its good to speculate about when the RNS will be, as it maintains morale, but if there isn't one come Monday, I shall be undisturbed. On the other hand, you can have too much mañana, so I am setting the end of March as my alarm clock. After that I shall start to get impatient.