Member Info for uncertain

We've been getting RNS's on a one to two week basis over the summer and into the autumn. The wait for the next RNS is the longest we have had to wait since May. I would expect something this week on that basis. Of course if there is no news there is no news. On the other hand perhaps they are keeping us waiting for something really big!

Qui sapientiam vult, patientiam habeat primam.

Great is a geographcial term, not a description of our status in the world, which I will be diminished post Brexit, I fear. Others will have their own beliefs about this to which they are entitled. Of course this is a discussion board about an oil share, not a political discussion board. The only relevance of Brexit to the eventual value of this share is the effects of the exchange rate (currently bouncing back a bit but possibly falling back later). This relationship is inverse (£ up, CASP down)

There are a number of reasons for holding this share and the small number that are likely to be traded in the event of good news from the deeps is just one of them. A second reason is that the existing price more or less completely ignores the value of the deeps which are discounted as if they do not exist. A third reason is that the market has got used to ignoring any speculatively good news from this share because there have been so many false dawns and disappointments in the past. A fourth reason is that international prices on the MJF structure allow not only the investment to fully exploit this field but also the revenue to put serious money into the deeps. A fifth reason is that there is virtually no debt. A sixth reason is that the news coming in from the deep wells has started to improve.

While not believing those who are certain that this will all suddenly come good in the very near future, I think the timescale for a multi bagger return is now short enough to sit still and wait for the good news to arrive. 100% in

I'm with Belles on 20p before xmas. The pattern of RNS's since August is that they are issued at the rate of about one every two weeks. I am taking this as a steady as she goes RNS rather than a groundhog day RNS. There is plenty of information in the RNS on the many different initiatives now in play with a clear indication that quite a few things are getting going in early October. I have no idea which of them will be successful, but I am reasonably confidant that some of them will be and this will lift the share price. I am expecting another steady as she goes RNS in mid October and something fairly positive sometime in November. Meanwhile sceptics continue to depress the share price a little, which provides opportunities for buying.

I am forecasting £1 by xmas 2020.

Because CASP is below the horizon for most investors and not trusted by others who do know about it, the share recovery is likely to be slow as I have suggested before. The news has too be a bit more solid ( or should I say liquid) before substantial moves occur. 13 -14p represents a barrier for CASP without more definite outcomes.

Today will be a good test of how the market responds to news from CASP. This is good news, but it is not long term production yet of course. Many a slip etc. Is the market ready to start pricing in the deeps now? I think we may eventually get up to 13/14p on the back of this but then may meet resistance. Happy to be proved wrong of course.

MJF will be producing much more than 1000 bopd soon, as the MJF infill programme starts, and international prices will be available for most of this. Even ignoring the deeps, I think the market is undervaluing CASP. The lack of trust in CASP is causing this, and I therefore expect the sp to move up slowly during the autumn as production increases actually occur, but even then only probably when they are announced. If the deeps do not produce this year (entirely possible), then perhaps we might get 20p in the new year. If we get a deep to flow for a good period on test then we could get there sooner.

may come first. That should stabilise the price and perhaps give a little lift

In one sense this is is a welcome RNS for its clarity on both MJF strategy and deep well order of business. In another sense it re-iterates much of what we already know. The MJF information is hardly news as most posters here had fully anticipated it. The A8 carbonate interval has also been fully explained in the past with only timing an issue. The A5 sidetrack is also fully known aboout and both of these developments have been expected sometime in the autumn by careful and realistic followers of CASP.

I expect a slight bounce but the traders( as opposed to investors) may still wait until closer to the deep projected results before loading up. An interesting autumn I would say

I think we should have some kind of update by the end of next week. After that, in September, MJF international prices kick in and an infill programme will begin. Alongside that the possibility of a deep flow may come anytime up to December. Speculating about which one, or when, does not help with CASP as they communicate badly and change direction without information, until much later on.

You know how it is, you wait ages for a bus, and then three come along together

I was thinking that we would get news by the end of the month. In the meantime a slow slide on tiny volumes. August is always a bit of a silly season anyway.

Hi Tucson, thanks for your supportive post. I think I will take a short rest from the board anyway (there's not a lot going on after all for the moment) but will be back. I have decided to filter coffeecups and deal with the problem that way

Nasty little innuendo CC. I rest my case. Bye bye for now

I think I'll give this discussion board a rest for a while and join the grown ups over on ADVFN

Hi CC, you have done much better than me on this stock and have held it for much longer. People who have held from early on or bought on the dips have done very well indeed. I do however remember you disagreed with FK at one point, but have come round more to his point of view which is all I was trying to say. I had no intention of annoying you as I don't find that kind of thing helps on boards.

Hi gaspunter, its unlikely to sell out, but the speed of development is largely dependent on cash flow as they are averse to debt other than from oil traders and one major Kazakh shareholder. The big development this year is the MJF licence which allows them to sell most of the oil from the shallow wells at international prices, I think from September onwards. There are a number of deep wells which have run into difficulty in the past, but which may do better soon as Sinopec are involved and the cash flow is there to spend on better tech to solve the problems.

You will also get board members like gritster who have had serial disappointments on this share as the overhyping from the board, particularly Clive has been repeatedly proved to be (very) premature. Gritster has a point, and it will be still between 8p and 10p in three years time if no deep is flowed, as has been the case hitherto.

However there are reasons (outlined above) to believe that it might be this year or next. Flawless Kicks (now only on ADVFN) is a notorious optimist but his position has now been taken over (on some days) by coffeecups. Belles is more of a realist and a bit closer to my opinion.

At the present sp, CASP is valued largely by the MJF field alone, with the deeps completely discounted. This is because they have got the market over-excited more than once in the past and then disapointed it. The market really doesn't like this kind of thing and is allergic to uncertainty, something I have always found puzzling, but nevertheless seems to be the case. For this reason I am attracted to shares like this because the upside is massive and the downside very limited (although speculators will sometime push it downto silly levels - but you just have to wait until there little shorting game plays out)

A share to hold. Up to 3 year time horizon IMO. If you need a return quickly, go somewhere else

Interesting discussion over on ADVFN suggesting the conference call and the Carverspeak it contained were all a smokescreen to deflect our attention from that fact that the MJF licence would only really produce a positive cash flow from September onwards which would then be needed for MJF infill, meaning work on the deeps may be delayed for commercial reasons.

August , September, October, November - doesn't really matter to me - I am a holder not a trader.

The reaction of the market was swift but not severe, mostly over by 8:30, and then fairly flat. I see that as an improvement on previous reactions to bungled PR at CASP. The chancers have left the room. The rest of us should wait for news over the next couple of months IMO