Member Info for uncertain

But my predictions are excellent!

I just have a little problem with timing, that's all.

Come rampers one
Come rampers all
The bull flag is flying
So answer it's call

Welcome all newbies
Ask all that you need
for CASP is the stock
that will sate your greed

This is a mystery, Gritster, but nevertheless true. Perhaps someone is trying to keep the sp down? Perhaps it is Artificial Stupidity? Obviously you don't get long runs of sales like this without the price being affected and it seems fairly solid at the moment.

I remember you saying that Tucson and thinking you would probably change your mind when it came to it. At that time we didn't have all the positives lining up in the way that they are now. FOMO! Gets to us all

Brent did actually get over $86 early this morning. All the ducks are lining up.

I see that in retrospect CC. Also in retrospect I see that the real problems came from a lack of reliable information from CASP.
The whole market knows about that now, which is why the sp is moving so slowly in response to what would be, in any other share, very good news.

How many good RNSs will we need to move us up to a level which corresponds to the position on the ground (or should I say under the ground)? I think 600 bopd from 153 should move us to 6p. I think further successes in horizontal drilling in MJF should move us to 10p. Likewise at Yelemes with the licence maybe 12-14p.

These are still very conservative figures with current price of oil, but the market still doesn't trust CASP. However I think the deeps, which will put a rocket under it, will need a good long flow test before the true value of the share is realised. A8 flowing may put us up to 17-20p, but a 90 day flow test will put the whole field into the valuation.

I'm much more cautious rocketeer, I'm only aiming for 1000% at present.
Just for balance CC, you really used to annoy me in the days when you blew hot and cold about CASP.
Nowadays you blow warm or boiling hot and I can cope with that much better.

Hi DM, I have watched the shares that CC has mentioned on this board and he certainly has a very good record of selecting winners.
I made a decision a little while ago to put all my eggs in this basket. Prior to that I had what I called a portfolio of uncertainty, selecting sharres that were suddenly performing badly but which had enormous potential. I mitigated my risk by doing a lot of background research into both the company and the market.

This is of course contrary to all advice and conventional wisdom, but then I have generally done well by going against the prevailing view. Previously I was in CEY, POG KAZ and ARM. I tend to concentrate on primary production because it is easier to simulate. I cut my investment down to this one share because I was spending too much time on my poprtfolio and had other much more important things to get on with in my life.

I have stopped trading for two reasons. Firstly I found I wasn't very good at it, and secondly I found that it didn't make me happy. I buy and hold and then judge the best exit. Sometimes that means that i have to take large short term losses but it works for me.

My exit point for CASP is probably 2023, but I may sell a few meanwhile to finance travel or projeccts on the house. I will let you know what I intend to invest in next when that time comes, but it will probably be in renewables.

I shall probably ask CC for his advice at that point because of his knowledge in that sector, and his track record of picking winners. Of course i will then do my own in depth research.

Only slippery when it comes to word play CC, which I was sure you would understand.

Like DM I have no agenda other than to put forward my honest beliefs and analysis of what is going on with CASP and to benefit from the same from others on this board. After a long period of being unsure, I even trust you now CC!

A misunderstanding DM, the suspicions I had were with the accuracy of the LSE reporting of trades, not with you! Unlike CC I didn't think you were a cunning linguist.

I share your view that CASP is on the up, but we don't exactly when, but probably before Xmas IMO

You can't believe anything you read these days!

I did notice your earlier post saying you had bought today but could only find one purchase of 123 shares, so I did have my suspicions!

Strange market today. Virtually all sales (unless one of you knows different) but the price is now going back up. Next week should be very interesting. 6p by the end of the week? Is that rampy enough or am I being overcautious again?

Agreed CC, the strategy is to use the shallows as a cash cow so we can invest properly in the deeps.

The old wisdom on this board was that MJF was worth somewhere between 6p and 10p on its own. I'm not so sure about this any more. I understand the whole business of valuing an oil company based on an estimate volume of oil in a field times its recoverability.

The much higher productivity of the horizontal drilling being adopted now (assuming it is successful in most wells) will increase profitability to such a degree that valuing CASP based on a combination EPS and a reasonable P/E ratio (say 10) will arrive at a much higher value.

Which will the market choose? I think that is a matter of optimism vs pessimism. The latter has prevailed during the pandemic but i think sentiment may be shifting. Any progress on A8 and it will not just shift, it will flip.

taking a pop at $85 this morning

Fully agree with your figures below KK. What people don't realise is that while on the one hand revenues can stack up very quickly as output ramps up and Brent hits new highs, on the other hand costs are much more fixed and don't rise in line.

With merely encouraging news the rig seller will hold the sp back. With actual news i.e. 153 5 day flow test or in the case of A8, just the announcement that there will be a flow test, then the rig seller will not be able to hold this back.

It remains understandably under-priced because of earlier disappointments but I don't think will continue for much longer with a few more good RNSs in the run up to Xmas.

May I just re-iterate: 10p by Xmas

But there's a world shortage of tanker drivers!

No news on Yelemes or boaty, but 144 and 146 beinglined up for horizontal drilling next as planned. Should be worth edging over 4p IMO

An encouraging work in progress with 1800bopd sustained, 153 being tested, A8 at 5048m with 4 oil bearing intervals but continuing towards 5300 as planned. 154 at 600bopd

8p is for boaty, 14p for A8 and 4p is for 153/Yelemes