Member Info for uncertain

Good to see the drop in the sp has pulled in some buyers.
The shares in issue haven't gone up so there must be some delay on the share loan swap.
I am bringing out a book about how to lose money on CASP. I suspect there will be no takers.

There are two dates I would consider for a breakeven. January, when I think the next RNS will come and April when the following RNS will come. When breakeven does occur I will be looking to stay in for the profit which I think will come.

DaisyDo, I'm going to make a prediction that there will be no RNS on the 16th, so at least one of us will be right.

You were talking about 16th December weren't you?
2021 that is.

The very different demographics in South Africa make it difficult to forecast what will happen in the UK and other western countries (age profile, vaccination rates, HIV infections). A cautious approach seems wise until we know more, but we should know by the end of the month. Meanwhile Brent is a bit stuck until the consequences for economic activity in 2022 become clearer. It does seem to be offering Boris a useful diversion in his hour of need. Maybe too late for North Shropshire though.

I wouldn't want to be oout of this over the winter.
There is one trade now but we have possibly broken the record for the ratio of posts to trades

$76 and rising. Is the Omicron dip over?

I think this discussion underlines the ambiguity of the meaning of breakeven. In relation to CCs post $30-35 was what they needed to stay in business in the dark days of the pandemic (they were paying the oil traders in oil not cash at that point) and in relation to KKs post $55 is what they need to start financing the deeps program and therefore would need to debt/ equity finance below that price.

These are exactly the kind of rare bits of information that I use to calibrate my spreadsheet and why I conclude that we need $65 plus for a dividend (or boaty/3AB sale)

Yes, but what did they mean by breakeven in those circumstances. As I recall they cut back all investment activities to zero and paid themselves in shares. Any workovers that might have been needed simply didn't occur. Given time the 1200 bopd would have deteriorated. My recollection is that it was $35 anyway.

$45 -$55 gives you a good workover programme and expansion of the shallows program at current output and export percentage. $55-$65 gives you money to spare for the deeps. Above that and you get a dividend as well. Or so my world famous spreadsheet says.

Did you mean $30 rather than £30 Coffee? Breakeven can be short term as well as long term. No doubt we could survive for a while on $30 or at least $35 but for any investment to take place we need to be above $45 and for even a modest divi(say 0.1p) at today's output we would need $60

I agree thatthe CASP sp is not particularly affected by Brent, but CASP itself is affected in its cashflow and capacity for investment on the many fronts that it currently operating on. Good to see Brent back towards $72 this morning although some indication the Saudis are responding to US pressure to turn on the taps. The resurgence may be partly due to scientific evidence suggesting omicron may not be quite as bad as the doom mongers first suggested.

Brent briefly tested $66 this afternoon but now headed back towards $70. We need a week or two to properly assess the impact of omicron in the west before deciding on which direction Brent should move next.

Fidelio - so much unfounded optimism!
Gritster - so much unwarranted despair!
My predictions:
There will be an RNS next week which will contain some good news and some bad news!
10p by Christmas

I have a feeling that after the weekend to reflect, the oil markets may conclude that perhaps they have been a bit hasty about omicron, and Brent may stabilise or bounce up a little.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59442141
Here's the anti-panic view

Sorry meant 153. I keep forgetting 154 was drilled horizontally before 153!

My highly sophisticated spreadsheet (limited only by the lack of data offered us by CASP) says that if 154 flows at 600 and yelemes comes back on stream, then CASP is today priced as if the price of Brent were only $57. If in addition the Boaty contract goes ahead at $20m p.a. then CASP is currently priced as if Brent were back at $35

The current panic represents a buying opportunity as a number of other posters have suggested. Consistent undervaluation has been compounded by a covid panic.

We are now waiting for a different kind of news. The omicron covid variant has a large number of mutations but there is a lack of good data on its severity and infectiousness particularly in well vaccinated populations. It is a variant of concern, meaning we have to be careful and investigate it properly before judging the right response to its appearance.

Meanwhile the financial markets including commodities have done what they do best which is to panic. I think we will get the RNS from CASP before we get a proper appraisal about the impact that omicron is likely to have on the world economy. CC is right - we will have to wait until the spring!

We are down by the same percentage as Shell today, but less tha BP, and all of them are down by less than Brent. Are shareholders more optimistic than commodities traders?

They haven't even done the proper analysis of this new variant yet. All they know is that the spike is different and it may spread faster, but they don't know whether the vaccinated are are more likely to get it. Seems like a bit of a panic to me.

Well I'm not so sure about that Gritster

Yelemes output at 300 bopd would get us over $50m revenue p.a. as KK says, but even that small announcement brings with it greater potential because of the scope for horizontal drilling. If you're a broken record KK then I am an echo. All of us who have done the research can see this is undervalued and is just waiting on news before it goes BOOM!!

Patience.