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I am thoroughly ashamed of myself for being so cautious. I defer to the ramptastic Somm

KK
With all that going on my spreadsheet gives CASP a carefully considered 31.65p

Mind you currently without any of that happening it suggests 5.4p rather than Mr Market's 3.85p

So lets call it a round 25p

has just popped over $84 again. Coal prices are also on the rise again although gas seems to have stabilised for the moment

Oil taking a little look at $84 this morning

Are Richyptamworth and Richyp123 the same person? In which case they should surely be higher up the rankings. maybe I'm only No.6?

How much ramping do the rest of us have to do to get FK out of the top ten?

I agree that the ramper list is laughable but also fun, Divermike. Nevertheless it is an example of AS, which itself was intended to be a fun description of the world we live in.

The reason for the rather silly ramper list is AS - artificial stupidity. When you watch something on Netflix their algorithm stuffs your suggestion list with almost identical shows when what you really want is variety. When you book a holiday, Gormless Mr Google immediately floods your browser with adverts for similar holidays which you don't need for another year, if at all.

Artificial Stupidity is the bane of our age from Farcebook to Twatter

back over $83 this morning and gas moving north again after a retrace yesterday.

Putin is cashing in by increasing the supply of gas to Western Europe which has pushed the price down a little. I assume the drop in oil today is related.

You are too kind cc.
Looking at what has been happening to both gas and coal in the last week, I think $90 for Brent is entirely possible for the end of the month. As the prices of coal and gas continue to get totally out of control, rising proportionately by simlar percentages to oil when OPEC got going in the mid 70s, oil may start to become a viable substitute for other fuels in the energy sector again

Brennt just nudged over $83

Reaching my shoelaces is getting harder

I want you to notice that I can also do self restraint, cc

Brent firmly through $80. Time for CASP to do the same with 4p

Glad at least one person got my comma joke

Comergen!

Don't worry about crude KK. It's just the safety clutch on the ratchet mechanism, just like CASP. The best graph to look at for Brent is the One Year graph where the trend still looks strong. Have you seen what gas is doing this week? Sure to bleed across IMO

Looks like the rigseller is back this morning and the sp is having a little retrace. This seems to be the new normal for CASP a surge followed by a small retreat and then another surge ( sometimes news related) taking us higher than the previous one, like the tide movingslowly but relentlessly up the beach.

Not long until the next news and hopefully a very large surge.
10p by Christmas? Or is that too BS for you KK?

I was expecting the 2020 accounts to be more illuminating but sadly disappointed. Maybe better next year!

KK substitute "leads to " for "=" in your "formula" and it will lead to a fine upward spiral, the beginnings of which we have been experiencing this week.

I will also have to adjust my formula as investment expenditure ramps up and fixed costs rise. It works well for current capacity and technology, giving an estimate of current profit, but will over-estimate if the scale increases massively, and underestimate if the flow rate per well increases massively. Both these things seem likely so I will have to carry on tinkering with it.

Hi KK, the formulas are not the dodgy bit. I have been unable to get a clear picture on their fixed and marginal costs because of the relative opacity of their accounts and the rather strange accounting traditions of the oil industry. I adjust my estimates of these each time we get more information. I currently work on the assumption of either $21 a barrel and $9.65m fixed costs, or $26 a barrel and £7.3m fixed costs. I use these two estimates to get a range.

I inferred these numbers from their last statement of a Brent breakeven price, but there is a trade-off between fixed and variable costs based on this figure. I used a reasonable range for marginal cost and fixed cost based on pre vious information.

i was pleasantly surprised by thei H1 profits as I had it lower than that, so I may possibly be underestimating the position. Undoubtedly they will be spending a lot of money on new drilling investment and the annual depreciation associated with these expenditures is a bit of a guess anyway.