Member Info for uncertain

My dodgy spreadsheet suggests we should be at around 5p based solely on current production and oil prices. With the Yelemes licence and both 153 and 154 in production that should bring us up to 2500 bopd and a valuation around 9p. Any successes beyond that will take us into double figures.

Come on market, keep up!

Brent is rising towards $80 this afternoon. 4p is a stupidly low sp with the current output and oil price, let alone the potential for major increases in output in the very near future. Traders will be traders but I see no reason not to be a holder at present.

A little Kazakh history while we're waiting for news
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-58487544

Brent going through $77 and taking a look at $78 may have helped.

https://ihsmarkit.com/products/oil-gas-drilling-rigs-offshore-day-rates.html

May not exactly match Boaty's spec but here are some charter day rates

Awax, they use the term dividends because we are now a profitable company as the interims indicated - even when Brent was $50 - $60 and output was just over 1200 bopd in H1
We are now experiencing Brent above $70 and domestic prices at $20. With 153 and 154 pumping 600 bopd and Yelemes back on stream we could hit 2500 early next year . My dodgy spreadsheet suggests we could reach0.6p - 0.7p EPS for a full year on these figures.
Dividends could come very easily, even for the profits earned in 2021. I would guess at between 0.1p and 0.2p per share without denting investment as outlined in today's RNS.

8 million shares from the rigseller will be sold into any strength resulting from this RNS, moderating its rise. 400k have been sold already this morning although of course we don't know who sold them. About twice as many have been bought

Given the uplift in both the oil price and output in H2 it would not be unreasonable to expect a profit of $10m or more for the full year. Domestic is now at $20. Mind you my dodgy spreadsheet suggests they must have cut costs substantially in H1 to get to a profit of $3.4m. i wonder how the payment of the board in shares was treated in the accounts?

Current developments
153 has been "redrilled" to 2200 metres out of a planned 2400 metres
3AB is awaiting a license before progressing with the partial farm out
Negotiations for a new Boaty contract are at an advanced stage
The intention to declare a dividend is confirmed
Yelemes expected to resume production before the end of the year
Drilling on A8 has reached 4840 metres out of a planned 5300
Horizontal drilling is planned for 146 and 141 once 153 is complete
A new sidetrack is planned for A5 in October
New chemical treatment planned for A6
Work on new deep weell 802 planned to start by the year end to a depth of 5300 metres at a cost of $5m (casing already acquired)

Intermediate highlights
Profit before tax $3.4m
Output 1124 bopd
Export percentage 66%
Current output 1689 bopd
Horizontal well maintaining 600 bopd

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Prices for natural gas, coal and uranium have shot up over the summer to multi-year highs. Oil is not a direct substitute in energy generation in most places but I think this surge is likely to bleed across to the oil price over the autumn. $80- $90?

We may be going on the KWVR

The safety clutch on the ratchet is working well today. I am off tomorrow for a week in the sunny Yorkshire Dales. Hopefully we shall be above 4p by the time I get back, RNSs willing.

i.e. a lack of sensitivity analysis under different assumptions in the paper. They picked there assumptions and went where it took them

Hi Mike, thanks for the read. Rather tentative stuff with lots of hidden assumptions about the future, but does suggest that electric are ahead of hydrogen at the moment. These facts have a habit of changing quite suddenly or not progressing as expected, so we are still at the experimental, lets try everything and see what works stage.

Thanks for your interesting comments cc.

One lot of relatives are out for the afternoon and the next lot don't come until tomorrow so I needed something to read!

Electricity storage has long been the problem and no doubt we will continue to make progress, but hydrogen stores the power of electricty, being made by electricity but delivering its stored power by combustion. The real issue is capacity. renewables have made massive inroads into the electricity capacity, but the needed capacity is going to have to trable to replace petrol, diesel and domestic gas over the next couple of decades.

Higher building standards and the retrofitting of old houses and flats with better insulation and draught proofing, particularly in the private rented sector, remains the most cost effective quick win, but unfortunately our present government messed up its programme to do this spectacularly.

And of course in the very long term we may have fusion. In the medium term we need to use a wide range of developing technologies, but I don't think blue hydrogen should be one of them. As we wean ourselves off gas and petrol our electicity generating capacity will need to be expanded several times so there will be lots of gaps to plug. Hydrogen is likely to be used initially in gas pipe networks on the coast within easy reach of offshore wind.

Oil may have a long term future in making plastics but only if biological recycling technologies develop further.

I think we should be putting more resources into wavepower and geothermal at present

Hi Mike, yes I am aware of all the environmental and humanitarian downsides of electric cars. They are an intermediate solution to the problem of global warming, although battery technology may have further to go and may become more acceptable long term. Recent fast charging battery developments for instance are an example of limiting battery size which brings some benefits, but more is needed. Hydrogen technology and carbon capture are not quite there in my opinion and the whole blue hydrogen issue is questionable. I think we will probably need both in the medium term. Carbon offsets were a good way of raising awareness and may have marginal effects on carbon sequestration, but are largely fraudulent IMO and not particularly helpful at this stage of the climate crisis.

Thanks for the ITM suggestion. I am interested in investing in alternative power companies in the medium tern, but would like a little more progress with CASP before shifting in that direction.

The tax breaks are there as recompense for not building houses. Think of it as a carbon offset for holding CASP shares.
My idea on that was to use the profits from CASP to buy an electric car and install solar power on the roof, but it hasn't quite worked out like that yet!

https://www.woods4sale.co.uk/information-pages.htm

Info for you cc. In particular look at the taxation page