Member Info for uncertain

I downsized from a third of an acre (with a small bit of woodland at the end) 10 years ago and now have a small manageable urban back garden. Things you need as you get older: easy access to shops, doctors, hospitals, restaurants, cinemas, theatres, bus stops, railway stations and countryside.

carbon offset?

Basically what has happened this afternoon is that the MMs have activated the safety over-ride cliutch on the ratchet ready for it to morph into a spinning top and lurch off in an unexpected direction next week.

I swapped teaching/ management for renovating a wreck of a house and getting involved with local authority partnership boards. Slowing down a bit now!

How can it be "unknown" whether a transaction involving a million shares is a sale or a purchase?

After 10 years of it I have concluded there is no such thing as retirement KK. You will just be pursuing a different set of activities.

Very likely I am as old as you. Have you been to Dundee where they have statues of the characters?

Given the upward trend in CASP, the rig sellers may be selling some for reasons of liquidity and holding some to make a profit.

KK are you trying to have your pie and eat it? I will be braver and say the price is going to go higher although maybe with some clutch release safety mechanism on the ratchet.

We're 7th on the share risers list this morning, although that's a bit misleading as it's based on the closing price of 3.24p. For some reason they used a single sale price late in the day which was below the closing spread. Strange!

There are some traders who watch the risers looking for a quick buck. Being in the top ten twice this week can do us no harm although may increase volatility.

Meanwhile, back in the real world, Brent is over $72 this morning

SteveinUSA's source (WSJ& Barron) is saying 27.6p at todays exchange rate. My dodgy spreadsheet says we need to be over 8k bopd for that. I wonder what timeframe they're thinking about?

While we have been excited by CASP climbing to 10th position on the risers board for no apparent reason, Brent has quietly sailed through the $70 mark, briefly touching $71 before settling back a little.

And yet in other ways this share behaves more like a spinning top, suddenly lurching off in unexpected directions

https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

You have to squeeze the inflation out KK to understand the trends, particularly in the 80s and 90s. The link graphs WTI adjusted for US inflation. You'll see that the period from the mid 70s to the mid 80s is not too disimilar from the period from the mid noughties to the mid teenies this century. The graph illustrates the long cycle in oil, the question being are we poised for another upswing (possibly the last one)?

Brent seems to have a very slack ratchet

Well as I said in my post, "more like a ratchet" i.e. not actually a ratchet but having some of the characteristics of a ratchet!

It's good to know the MMs have a clutch safety over-ride.

I think of it more like a ratchet Gritster. I don't think we will drop back all the way to 2.5 and if we flow another horizontal well I think we will go back over 3.5, probably over 4p. Perhaps then we will drop back again for a while, but then the Yelemes export licence will push us towards 5p.
The market doesn't trust CASP again yet. It needs news to move and slides back without it. We should however be getting some more news soon!

Brent is over $67 today, not by much mind, but I think $65 probably was the bottom and we can expect some recovery now.

I also have no idea why people would consider selling just now, but they obviously do. Perhaps day traders, or people who follow the mysterious TA religion, or the rump of the P&D merchants. For people looking at fundamentals, selling makes no sense, certainly not for the rest of this year.

Any increase in the value of CASP in the near future is likely to be based on the shallows. A return to the 8-10p range is entirely plausible based simply on success in the horizontal drilling approach, although probabbly not until next year.

Thanks KK and cc for your digging on the rigs. It looks as though we are still following a "deeps on the cheap" strategy in the near future.

That link won't work. This should be better

https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm

Hi KK, agreed on the likely rise in Brent up until the end of the year. OPEC seem to agree with you

file:///C:/Users/Paul/AppData/Local/Temp/OPEC_MOMR_August_2021.pdf

In the appendix they forecast 5.95% rise in demand compared with 1.21% increase in supply yoy (that's year on year Rhertig) for 2021 and respectively 3.28% and 3.07% for 2022. While the biggest differential is in the first half of the year, they still have demand growing faster than supply yoy in 2021 Q4 by 1.82%.

Of course we have all learned to expect the unexpected rercently, and a virulent new strain would upset the applecart, but as things stand Brent should rise from its current level

Most comentators are blaming the spread of the delta strain for the markdown on oil. We tend not to think about that in the UK because the delta strain is what we have got. Vaccination seems to be effective against delta according to the latest evidence, but then again not all countries are well vaccinated and in particular poor countries are not.

The oil majors seem to have been marked down more than CASP (makes a change) even though we have just had a 1% dilution and are expecting 9% more shortly. This suggests a little returning optimism for CASP in the market