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Well if you're right Somm, $100m is a 3.2p divi! Slightly more than the current value of the share!

https://www.readkong.com/page/kazakhstan-oil-and-gas-tax-guide-2021-ey-2315233

In the above document I think our mineral extraction tax is 5%. Once we reach 10k bopd it rises to 7% and at 20k and then up by 1% for successive increases in output of 20k up until a maximum of 18% but thats at around 400,000 bopd

8k bopd would give us $13m gross revenue per month

I seem to recall that they said they would borrow to build a pipeline. If the deeps are flowing the banks will lend.

Agreed KK, but according my dodgy spreadsheet each horizontal well should generate sufficient extra net revenue every year to fund another deep attempt. Funding the campaign in the deeps has been the problem recently and I think that that has now been resolved, providing 154 and subsequent such wells continue to flow.

And in any case, what's wrong with a few bags?

A success in 153 and a simlar success in a single well on Yelemes would increase output by 60%. There has been much talk about cracking the deeps but it is possible, following 154 that we have cracked the shallows and found the right technique to maximize revenue per day

My dodgy spreadsheet says that we would need 125,000 bopd for that. However £1 is perfectly possible with reasonable success in the deeps. As to what the odds are, I couldn't possibly say!

There seems to be a bit of a sell off going on today. The TA merchants haven't bought Zak Mir's analysis yet!

The UN climate change report out today, together with the run-up to the COP26 conference in Glasgow in the autumn are likely to produce some negative sentiment for oil. We are down through $70 this morning. In the medium term I think oil prices should be up because it will be easier to limit oil output than cut demand.

Ah yes, they intend to pay a dividend. Somewhere between 0.1p and 0.25p in my opinion

Good:
The horizontal shallow well is still flowing at 700 bopd
Well 153 is being converted to a horizontal well and could be producing similar amounts in the autumn
Output is back near 2000 bopd
With equipment purchases the cost of a deep is now reduced to $5m
They seem confident of the Yelemes licence from October
They have paid off their debt from the pandemic period
They are back to 70:30 export/ domestic and are getting $19 for domestic
They have a drilling programme for both shallows and deeps with the former financing the latter

Indifferent:
Boaty's contract is over, although they have covered their costs this year

Bad:
The chemical treatments on the old deep wells have been tried but failed as they were unsuitable at high temperatures
There has been a 10% dilution to make us debt free

Have I missed anything?

Zak Mir thinks that if we hold on to the break through the 2.95 resistance today (half an hour to go) then we should rise towasrds the next resistance line from June (of last year I presume) which was above 4p.

As I think you all know I am not great on this TA stuff, but lots of people are, so if this kind of info is circulating among the TA AIM community we may see a few punters joining our numbers over the next few weeks which is all to the good

It was question 4

Bobsson, I think the reason that the final repayment of the oil traders debt affects the export domestic percentage is because they were repaying this debt with oil, thus increasing the percentage of their output going to the domestic sector. I think they now revert to the old 70:30 split.

The answers to the shareholders questions suggest that the deeps are not currently producing any oil. There seems to be a shortage of questions but helpful answers (mainly in the RNS anyway) with the exception of question 4.

a 1p dividend would cost $22.645 million after the recent dilution. That would be justified if output was just over 4000 bopd and the dividend was 50% of profits on my dodgy spreadsheet.

Badgernator, where is the money coming from? Firstly they are clear of debt so don't have to finance that; secondly they should be making about $1.2m a month as per my calculations yesterday; thirdly they own all their drilling equipment already; fourthly they anticipate further output from MJF workovers with their new rig and from the 153 sidetrack, and the 300 bopd from Yelemes from October, fifthly they are now clearly a going concern and could borrow from the banking sector short term.
Hold on to your hats

Output confirmed near 2000 bopd
return tto 70:30 split implied now that local oil trader have been paid off ( they were being paid in oil)
domestic price now $19, now back to zero debt through a share issue
side track of 153 equivalent to a new horizontal drill with potential for high output and due later this year
new deep cost confirmed as reduced at $5m with possible out[put next year
resumption of 8 is good news
acquisition of workoverdrill bodes well for MJF output for historic MJF wells
new well 802 is going ahead
3AB on hold waiting for partner and updated licence
Sidetrack on A5 planned
research on chemicals for A6 and 801 ongoing
dividends planned

Did i mention that I thought 5p was possible in July? Call that August

Much appreciated

Thanks KK. that would be helpful. Tax can also be variable if per barrel.

Ignore that KK, I was being a bit lazy .I've looked up netbacks on investopedia and it says it should be revenue net of all costs, and also that it is not an internationally accepted accounting term, although commonly used in the oil industry. I am unsure whether it is supposed to be calculated on an annual basis or over a longer period of time.

Either way, it is an average backward looking concept which is likely to prove an underestimate in situations where output has suddenly increased substantially (as is the case with CASP now). Because some of the costs are sunk costs, the cashflow benefit is also likely to be greater than the netback for the current period.

Going forward, the netback should rise with the recently improved bopd per well, as revenues per well improve while drilling costs remain the same. In other words, unsurprisingly, if an oilie suddenly becomes more productive and successful then its netbacks improve. I think we are entering such a phase at CASP which maypartly account for our differing projections