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D9Ber1, check out posts from Ctw2014 and Technick for good summary and info on GDR across all their product development work

link here to the Guardian article yesterday which highlights some of the players who have/are developed or developing tests kits. Biomerica, Chembio Diagnostics, Mologic are named in the article but clearly there are others. Article also highlights that Singapore companies have developed tests also.

“Some are developed now. We are looking at the ones in Singapore,” Birx said on Monday at a White House press briefing. “We are very quality-oriented. We don’t want false positives.” UK government also emphasised this point so it might be fair to infer that speed, accuracy and low cost combination for testing kits has not been resolved yet. Interesting though that the article states Mologic tests would sell for £1 in the UK and less than $1 in developing countries.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/covid-19-self-test-could-allow-return-to-work-says-public-health-england

UK government saying that would rather have no tests than bad tests that give inaccurate assessments of infection. Are sitting on a lot of potential test kits but are evaluating for accuracy. Once they have found robust test and can source at scale then one of the priorities is to answer critical question of asymptomatic cases. People who never knew they had the virus and so this could be a huge part of the population, maybe even the majority of the population eventually. * weeks is a long time to wait and will be important to monitor what the results are for other tests and their accuracy in the meantime. But its clear that many, many millions of further tests will be needed and the really accurate ones will obviously grab the lions share especially if they can be transported and stored easily. Be good if GDR could accelerate further the production of these. But I don't have any concerns around time taken for approval of test. Govt's are desperate and are running these approval processes on all options now.

Still here Ctw and good to see that you are too and reaping the benefits of your patience on GDR.

Many thanks technick for these excellent insights. Your technical knowledge ways exceeds mine so I don't think I can add anything on the NCYT v GDR debate. What I am thinking is that we are a couple of years away from a world where herd immunity has been achieved globally either through infection and recovery and/or vaccination. Given that, healthcare systems will be stockpiling SARs COV 2 tests if possible and definitely securing access to rapid manufacturing of tests due to the fact that within this period of time to global herd immunity outbreaks of Cov19 are going to popping up everywhere sporadically. The world cant stay in lockdown for ever. If GDRs tests can be stockpiled and they produce the only stockpilable test (with a POC option in the future) then this is a obviously a very exciting development most importantly in terms of saved lives as well as returns to shareholders. However I defer to the expertise of those with the technical knowledge to compare the pros and cons of the tests and solutions that are available and being developed by many organisations around the world.

The FCA has recommended that UK listed companies, due to announce results in the next 2 weeks, postpone the announcement of preliminary results for at least 2 weeks. The recommendation has been made because of the level of uncertainty in economic activity and the need for businesses to be better able to assess impacts on their businesses before reporting. Suspect therefore that if SYM was thinking of issuing a prelim statement in the next few days they probably wont now for another few weeks. Also think this is a good thing. Would much rather have an update that can point to tangible evidence of an improved outlook based on sales, enquiries and further trial and test results.

https://www.fca.org.uk/news/statements/fca-requests-delay-forthcoming-announcement-preliminary-financial-accounts

Should also point out that the same JP Morgan research indicates economic rebound in Q3 and Q4 resulting in -1.5% for US economic growth for the full year.

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-jpmorgan-usa-idUSU5N281010

These economics forecasts are usually wrong though. We really have no idea how this is all going to unfold. Clearly financial markets are still signalling for central banks and governments globally to do more, which I believe they will. Like many companies Cap-xx will be hit by the slowdown and will benefit from any rebound. Key is having enough cash to ride the downturn out. For holders like me who are looking at their holding now reduced to option value, that is the choice now. Cap-xx doesn't have a lot of cash and is not EBTDA positive so 1) Leave remaining investment in as an option play on short duration economic slowdown and Q3/4 economic rebound or 2) decline to pay for this option by locking in a huge loss and selling out on view of extended recession/depression. Everyone will have different opinions and views so take them all onboard, consider and place your bet. Good luck to all

£18m market cap. Roughly half forecast sales for 2021 and just over 1x forecast operating profit for 2021 and less than 1x 2021 EBITDA. Gas evacuation on go slow and will rise when agreement in place to supply GAIL pipeline to Kolkata, which has more or less been built and is nearing commissioning. Shale exploration kicker to significantly increase gas volumes in the medium term. India on track to meet Paris Climate Agreement based NDC with 15% gas in national energy mix by 2030.

Strategic asset, climate aligned, profitable, cash generative and extremely low valuation. Market pricing in a lot of grim news here. Looks like a good risk reward maybe.

Looks like Capital Group are out. Expect that Kalsi has bought these shares through his investment firm which will now own just shy of 90% of the issued share capital. Barely worth retaining the London listing. Shares are hugely good value at this level. However, will be seriously illiquid so could rapidly appreciate in price on small vols but also be virtually impossible to sell without being taken down a long way. 35p for Capital's exit is an incredibly bad exit price for Capital. This would have been negotiated for some time I expect so with the overhang now gone its a good opportunity to get involved.

A bit more light on the discussions around shale exploration and the barriers to moving this forward.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/private-firms-keen-on-shale-gas-exploration-demand-concessions/articleshow/74183509.cms

I'm with Ctw here on this as well. would much prefer M&G to Spreadex. I don't think I've seen significant ownership like this from a spread betting company before. Its a bit odd to my mind. Also suspect will be perceived as fast money and therefore our overhang in effect persists unfortunately.

That's a bit more like it in terms of directors buying but still not quite signalling high conviction.

I don't recall when the major institutional shareholders bought their shares but suspect that at 15p to 20p take over offer (were it to materialise) would leave them substantially under water still. They'd be unlikely to accept this unless they believed that the company was permanently hobbled and this price therefore represented good value.

I'd also be substantially under water at that price so if it does come (and I doubt it will) I hope it is firmly rejected!

they did so that serves as a good reminder they dont have all that much visibility themselves. Just think it important though to show confidence in longer-term outlook unless they believe there is more bad news on the way.

Last few trades here showing as sells are all buys as I bought a few more below 8p just now. Not that it really matters!

The board have got to step into this market and signal confidence with some decent sized buying. If we don't get that RNS in the next few days I'll be disappointed (again!)

agreed. suspect there probably is. It is still possible though to sell small amounts.....I got a quote for 15,000 shares for example. I also got a quote to buy 150,000 shares just inside the offer so there is definitely stock around. ( I don't have enough funds to test whether i could have got a quote for a larger buy order!)

Its probably fair to say that this years results aren't going to look pretty despite management stating that H2 could see DoD or India HCV getting things back on track. Great if that happens but there is no way that anyone can get an insight on these and track record suggests things move slower than expected not quicker. The India approval though i think is meaningful albeit in the context of 2020/21 financial results.

Strategically it is important to note that nothing has changed. 4 assays on the market by 2022 and sales beginning to ramp meaningfully in that year. I suspect there is just about enough cash to last now as long as there is no more slippage in expectations through financial year 2020/21. Important to also remember that NHS expect to role out AIHL assay throughout all trusts within a year post completion of successful trials. This could bring between £3m and £4m of annual revenue. If trials finish on time all or nearly all of this revenue could fall in the financial year to June 2021. But again assumes no delays of any kind.

What i find really disappointing about this is that we have highly effective drug treatment available for HCV at low cost. We now also have the device and test with very high accuracy around specificity on virus type (this is an issue particularly in sub-Saharan Africa with numerous different strains of HCV) and yet no money to ease and prevent the human suffering caused by this disease. All western governments have significant international development and aid budgets and there are foundations like the Gates foundation with huge funding available for these types of programmes. The solution is right here, highly effective and available now at low cost but apparently there is no urgency to address one of WHOs top targeted global diseases. I guess we just have to hope that with WHO pre-qual we final get the signal to open the funding taps for HCV and things then move fast after that.

Definite near term caution expressed by management. They have always been on the cautious side though. On the upside approval for HCV test in India is a positive and being a better funded market for HCV testing could make up some of the short fall in revenues over the next 12 to 24 months. The share price would not be down here where it is if some concerns around timing of ramp up in sales were not being priced in already. Key though is cash burn. This will slow as AIHL revenues begin to come in aided by some India HCV revenues. DoD remains the unpredictable wildcard which may also deliver something shorter term. The potential of this business though will not be recognised until predictable revenue streams are being generated and we have proof of market as much as we have proof of product. A shame. The wait goes on.

Early announcement of the results this year (4th Feb) with no trading update. Probably doesn't indicate anything other than there is so little to report on that they have been able to get the statement together much quicker than last year.

I notice from the WHO website also that there has been no progress of the lab testing stage for HCV low virus load as of Dec 10th. I'm hoping though that this is what GDR will be announcing on Feb 4th, that we have WHO pre-qual all done and dusted.

The gas pipeline that will connect Durgapur to Kolkata should, given recent updates, be more or less at Durgapur by now. Significant development as every extra few kilometres now brings in new potential gas customers. On the flip side, shale gas volumes are still some wway away as GEEC are on go slow re permissions given pricing uncertainty. Not sure what these are exactly, but hope for news in Q1 2020. Could be a big year for this stock especially given the current valuation.

Well highlighted GW. That's the key point for me.....will CPX hang on to the customers and at the same price point as Murata. If they can largely do that then fantastic that company starts to make cash, but lots of risks ahead. As a long-term holder, I'm not entirely bowled over right now which is a shame as this has clearly been one of the key strategic opportunities that the company have indicated they have been working on over the last year.