Member Info for TroytoTiber

You are correct....liquidity is a huge issue here. definitely not a trading stock. I believe that part of the reason for the significant discount is the lack of free float and very low traded volumes. However, for patient investors this represents an opportunity. Having been building a large position in GEEC over the last few years I'm always delighted to see new investors here. Few guarantees with an Indian-based small cap but if the stars align then the upside is huge - several hundred million market cap not several million as is now

Fingers crossed Hasiba. We should get a results announcement in July with more details on a number of fronts. Shale test drilling commencing, new customers from national pipeline link at Durgapur, london listing as well as update on pipeline progress to huge Kolkata market.

I also really want to know who bought M&G's stake in the company. IR wont respond to me and there has been no RNS.

someone has recently bought over 17m shares but there has been no rns to notify on subsequent % holding in GEEC.

same coalfield i meant to say not coal seam.

https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/pipeline-commissioning-helps-essar-deliver-coal-gas-to-fertiliser-plant/80741651

Essar operate in the Raniganj coal bed as neighbours to GEEC., both extracting methane from the same coal seam. Essar are communicating well about how the new GAIL owned pipeline is transforming the market in terms of demand for gas in the region and this is kickstarting plans to expand production. GEEC also have gas production, they now have a rapidly scaling local market and a route to that market so why are the company not communicating in the same way as Essar on this? Time for management to step up their game and secure an offtake agreement with GAIL, fully open the taps and get drilling more wells. This surely is bread and butter to a gas exploration company so it is very frustrating that management arent saying more about what they are paid to do as part of their standard every day job!

M&G Investment Management now finally out having sold all their shares now. This has been weighing on the share price for a long time and such an enormous overhang of stock has suppressed the shares down to extremely low levels. I expect a significant re-rate here now to maybe 30p to 40p range. Interested to know who the buyer is as well. Could well be the Modi family but hope that we have a new institutional owner here. Next few months are set to be full of news with the new pipeline to Kolkata operational at Durgapur and due to be operational to Kolkata within a year from now as well as possible main market listing. Looking good!

Foundation stone laid at Haldia for commencement of the final leg of the pipeline from Durgapur through Kolkata and to the coast. Also Dhobi - Durgapur stretch of pipeline completed. This should open up new demand for gas in the immediate region, which will benefit GEEC. Essar operate the neighbouring CBM field in Raniganj (Durgapur) to GEEC. They had this to say:

"Essar had last year reached a peak production capacity of 438 million cubic meters per year in the Raniganj asset and will ramp up production now that the pipeline has been commissioned and expand its customer base from current industries in the nearby areas to far and beyond districts in the eastern region.

It plans to start the balance drilling and associated development task of around 250 additional wells as part of an expansion plan to achieve the sales volume of 1 billion cubic metres.

India is one of leading gas consuming nations in the world and Shri Modi’s vision of having a one nation- one gas grid is an important step in making India a gas-based economy.

The government is therefore focussing on creating a robust gas-pipeline infrastructure network.

The Dobhi-Durgapur stretch of the Urja Ganga pipeline project will directly benefit not only West Bengal but also 10 districts of Bihar and Jharkhand. It will also provide gas as feedstock to fertiliser plants, CNG to vehicles and piped gas to the homes of the region. Next to be completed in this stretch is the Durgapur-Haldia stretch of Jagdishpur-Hadlia and Bokaro-Dhamra pipeline."

thoughts on working capital to finance this? GDR have a million beads in stock some or all of which have now headed off for a BC lab(s) somewhere in the US. With at least £500k per month cash burn to keep the lights on at GDR they dont have enough cash to build any more inventory of beads (at roughly £3 per bead). They therefore cant scale volumes of beads quickly without more cash. Options are:
1) Beckman or Cytiva are financing the growth in supply of beads. This would be wrapped up in existing NDAs
2) GDR have secured a working capital finance provider (loan) - not unreasonable if they have a large guaranteed order backing the loan.
3) Another equity raise. Suspect unlikely as DB has stated that numbers of beads scale pretty quickly so sounds as if he already has a plan in place. However always a risk, so next few days or weeks this is a possibility - even if a small one.

Any other options?

It's possible Sterling are accumulating but only a £47m fund value by the looks of it so if they are buying more they aren't going to be a big buyer. A disclosable holding would be about 6.5% of their portfolio which is possible but hoping for a IIs with deeper pockets and someone has been buying a lot of shares!

Interesting comments here from the Chairman of GAIL (delivering the gas pipeline infrastructure for GEEC to sell into). Indicating that 2021 is the year for commissioning for most of the Jagdishpur to Haldia pipeline.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvy_6E2YisY

Manoj Jain also made comments recently (in other footage) on growth in gas volumes and impact on GAIL financials. He is bullish on rising volumes through the pipeline network and speaks of the large fertiliser plants coming on stream in 2021 and 2022 taking gas from the Jagdishpur to Haldia pipeline. Also highlights Kolkata city gas growth as a medium term significant driver.

No idea why GEEC arent communicating more on this as 2021 and 2022 will be transformation years for GEEC in terms of sales volumes and resumption of well development (CBM and shale).

Not under any illusions as to how long it will take to get vaccination extensively rolled out in India but the process is now under way so we can maybe also now look to 2022 full year results being somewhere near normal. Taking 2020 full year results as normal then GEEC is currently trading on 0.5x revenues, 1x operating profit and 2x net income for 2022. 2022 forecast revenues are actually currently higher at £26m so shares on less than 0.5x 1 year forward revenues. Factor in sales into the new gas pipeline to Kolkata and there is significant upside here. Company claiming that this pipeline will be operational by end of Feb 2021 and then we will see a gradual post covid vaccination return to normal over the course of 2021 and into 2022. Key short-term consideration is net debt and liabilities payable within 1 year. £43m net debt and £10m of debt repayable needs some managing but if refinancing can be arranged at similar rates to existing debt then suspect that this removes the last real hurdle to a very significant re-rate. Critical few weeks of newsflow ahead on this and the pipeline. Also look out for Main market listing and shale gas exploration commencing both of which could give another kicker to the share price.

Since July 22nd 2016 - this date being 4 months after DB took over as CEO of Genedrive the shares price has fallen 50%. Back then TB, HCV and DoD were all heralded as the break through for this company. nearly 5 years later and none of these have delivered any material commercial revenue yet. AIHL has newly arrived and is also on the brink of sales - but will come too late to prevent a dilutive share issue, which will have to happen if no covid sales appear very soon. We've even had a global pandemic (in case anyone was unaware) and a 'gold standard' test and still no sales. I've invested in here for many years with varying size of investment and my current holding is still just about in profit. Its a disappointing whimper of an ending for me but its time for me to move on! Good luck to those that remain.

I hope DB is focused on Covid as there isnt enough cash coming in from anywhere else if not and he has spent a chunk of what remains on stock piling materials for beads.
DB showed AIHL in the recent presentation as ramping sales in the 6 - 12 month timeframe so all in line in the announcement......frustrating though as vaccine data review proves it can be done on a much quicker basis when there is a will tpo do it

yep. exactly. 1 share for every ten. Exciting times for Deepverge. Think you might do quite well with your holding DavieG9

@DavieG9. you are now the proud owner of Deepverge shares (the entity name for combo of Modern Water and integumen). As acceptances of the merger are above 90% there will be a compulsory conversion of your modern water shares into deepverge shares which i think should all wash through by Dec 2nd. Market makers still obviously taking orders here on MDW but the huge spread reflects their unwillingness to do much business here now. Focus on deepverge price now.

Many thanks kd82!

Agreed. can anyone clarify on this? Is this part of the final data evaluation DB mentioned in the recent investor call that would allow GDR and BC to start selling Sars Cov 2 test in the US without FDA EUA?

Have tried to get responses from IR at GEEC with very mixed success over the last few years. Recently sent email to ask for more information on the statement from the company about 'market reports' of GAIL pipeline to Kolkata going live in Feb got no reply. Would appreciate if any others on this board are able to get any response from IR on this issue.....or have any views on this. Thanks

"in the very very near future"

I heard him say a few more weeks to collect data and then assess where they are with FDA EUA. Implication is if FDA still taking time then they will press ahead without EUA. Few weeks away either way.

Sounds like AIHL will be a rapidly scaling market in the US over the next few months as well