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I try to make sure i share what i find in terms of research so that all those reading on the chatboard at least get information and hopefully some valuable opinions rather than ramping. Couple of articles worth a read here from the last few days that throw a bit of light on the remaining challenges of finishing off the natural gas pipeline to Kolkata.

https://www.telegraphindia.com/my-kolkata/news/cng-project-faces-stiff-resistance-in-bengal-mayor-vows-completion-in-18-months/cid/1839741

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kolkata/cng-pipe-laying-hits-land-hurdle/articleshow/87787621.cms

this likely explains the massive discount to fair value of the share price currently. Market currently taking a very distrusting view on when or even if this issue gets resolved. For me, the government of India and state government are too invested in this to have it delayed much longer and a resolution will be found (hopefully) soon.

Not a lot of new information as suspected but what is encouraging is that nothing seems to have deteriorated further in terms of financial performance since the beginning of the pandemic impacted the business.
Wasnt expecting a bounce in the share price but it is welcome. As per previous post, i think the valuation is extremely undemanding at the moment as we come through the Pandemic and with a near term outlook of potential transformational growth.
SP Angel have re-iterated their previous strong buy on the stock https://www.spangel.co.uk/research/#/portal/sp-angel
Onwards and upwards!

GEEC made pre-pandemic FY EBITDA of c£17m (2020) and now stands on a market capitalisation of £23m. That's 1.35x EBITDA on a normalised basis. Would argue that expectations are currently very low on that valuation.

Dont think we will get much new information tomorrow in the results but looks like market makers are setting the share price back now anyway. The RNS will have been logged already and so this is probably confirmation of nothing new in the results.

Key as always:
1. News on completion of gas pipeline to Kolkata and timing of this
2. Update on off-take agreement with GAIL
3. Final approvals granted for shale gas drilling to commence and results of first test wells

Once connected by operational pipeline to large market demand and shale test-hole results back then taps will be turned full on with existing 147 wells and drilling on remaining 153 wells will commence. We'll get a rapid re-rate will happen as this becomes more obvious to the market. each results update now has the potential to spark that. sadly though i dont think this one tomorrow will be re-rate starting.

little over 2 weeks away!

"We are at an important point in the growth of our core business as a result of the opportunities offered by the GAIL pipeline that will allow us to expand our customer base and sales volumes and take advantage of our significant proven but as yet uncommitted gas reserves. On completion, the GAIL pipeline will allow us to pursue further material organic growth into the large and untapped industrial market of Kolkata and into the wider State of West Bengal and we look forward to reporting on our new gas marketing initiatives as they unfold. We also look forward to progressing our Shale exploration and appraisal project that represents another excellent organic growth opportunity for Great Eastern once all approvals are in place.



"With the steps being taken by the government to accelerate the growth of the Indian economy, demand for hydrocarbons in India will continue to grow, as is evident from rising LNG imports and where development of indigenous gas reserves like those held by Great Eastern can make a meaningful contribution. Given climate change concerns and the need to control emissions, Great Eastern is encouraged that its business focus on gas, increasingly seen as an energy transition fuel, can assist in the global trend towards low carbon/carbon neutral energy supplies."

Since the last announcement on 7 November 2019, the Company had obtained the environment clearance for starting its Shale exploration program and continues to be in the process of obtaining the balance of final approvals expected later this year. The Company is engaging with various vendors for commencing the Shale program. Subject to the results obtained and analysed from the core wells, the Company intends to drill an optimum number of pilot production wells.



· GAIL (India) Limited partially commissioned the "Jagdishpur - Haldia & Bokaro - Dhamra pipeline" on February 6, 2021. Further work on laying the pipeline section to Kolkata is underway and it is expected to be completed by August 2022 as per the media reports. This will provide the Company with the opportunity to expand its customer base and sales significantly by accessing the huge market of Kolkata and also to the wider State of West Bengal. The transportation tariff of this pipeline has been fixed at INR 71.08/mmbtu ($0.94/mmbtu) including 12% for Goods and Services Tax.

maybe there are a few concerns around with GEEC at the moment that might relate to the upcoming interim results to be announced around mid november or maybe relate to CoP26 and new climate commitments from India. For me concerns around either the results in November or CoP are not valid reasons for the share price fall over the last few weeks. Much more likely that someone has wanted to trade out of a position which made some strong gains to 40+p. Frustrating though.

Seller(s) back. Odd sequence of trades though. 90 minutes, 8 sales and 15% off the share price. Why do that? Maybe someone knows something that has recently changed in terms of outlook and that is either not easy to know or inside information. Seems odd though that a bunch off sellers just turn up on no news and dump 15% off the share price. There is then a small buy order that goes through for near the ask.

Think its just sellers out of the way (for now) and a buyer or two active. Nice to see a 121k share purchase from Fri 6th that popped up at the end of today. Spread was 30 - 32 at the time of the trade and price paid was 35p so maybe there is an ongoing buyer that is being quite aggressive to get stock.

Enjoying the ride upwards though. long may it continue! In the context of the latest IPCC report out today GEEC should do well. India is on track to make its contribution to a 2 degree celsius or less world by 2050 with share of energy sector for gas rising to 15% from 6% now. Ideally India would be more aggressive and align with Paris target of 1.5 degree celsius - gas and GEEC both have a role to play in that target if India were to make it.
* Proven and derisked significant reserves
* Increasing infrastructure connections to huge market demand
* Decent balance sheet and cash generative
* Significant discounted shares to intrinsic value
* Paris Agreement aligned
* Stars are aligned too

Thanks Hasiba. I guess that broadly matches to the 65% ownership of the Modi family. Either way, there are not many shares kicking around (which can be a problem as it puts off institutional investors). Can take my shares out of the free float for now as well.

Thanks for this Bismarck. It's difficult to get up to date info. By my reckoning, the Modi family own 65% of the stock (see last director dealings RNS from Nov 2020 for this figure). Some months ago there was also a very large number of shares traded which corresponded with the M&G holding. So i think they are out already but there has been no RNS to confirm this which is why im a bit confused. Maybe there is a loophole that means they do not have to disclose. According to 'Marketscreener' that leaves Aegon and Silvercrest with 0.5% and 0.41% respectively. Given the large amount of stock traded recently i wouldnt be surpirsed if one or both of these are out now as well. This would mean no long standing large shareholder left to sell. All conjecture as we dont have the information. Someone has obviously bought all these shares as well and there have been no director shareholding RNSs since Nov 2020 so it cant be them. Whoever it is could clearly sell their holding short term after a decent rise - which would spoil the fun a bit

No problem Bismarck. I dont think the research has much bearing on the current share price move as Arden Partners for example have had a similarly high share price target for the last few years. For me there has clearly been a lot of shares changing hands recently and i think that's relieved the selling pressure that has been hanging over this stock for quite a while. No significant ownership RNS's though so i am confused as to what has actually happened. Agree with you that in the absence of a significant buyer - if another large shareholder shows themselves as a seller, then the shares will likely fall quite a bit. I dont see that happening right now as the significant value offered at this stock price should continue to attract buyers and not sellers - and as said above the very large sellers are already out (i suspect). There cant be many if any long-term institutional or private investors with 1m or more shares still. Please share an updated table of largest shareholders though if you have it.

For those interested, research focusing on mostly the potential short to longer term valuation for GEEC is available at https://www.spangel.co.uk/research/#/portal/sp-angel . Usual caveats apply as SP Angel act as corporate broker to the company.

Actually the share price bottomed out at less than 10p in Feb 2021 - but i think the point still stands.

Thanks Hasiba! Happy to share my thoughts. In truth though the share price peaked in April 2010 at over 500p a share and recently bottomed out at just over 10p a share in April /May 2021 (i hope they have bottomed at least). That means i've been wrong on this for 11 years :) . Hopefully the patience and research is about to pay off. Lets see. there's a lot for this company to do still to crystalise the potential intrinsic value.
Great you took the plunge though at what could be an incredible entry price!

Its possible i guess. Essar Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Limited operate the neighbouring concession so must be significant synergies in bringing the two together. GEEC would be pocket change at this level for Essar O&G. However, GEEC majority owned by the Modi fmily with near 70% ownership and i think they are in for the long haul and have indicated that they think the resource is worth over $1bn NPV. The current share price - even after todays move - is a very shy of what i think the Modi family would accept.

Think you're right Hasiba. Just a lifting of the persistent stock overhang or something else? A lot of shares have changed hands over the last few weeks and now the market looks to be pretty tight (at least for now). I'm hopeful the long awaited re-rate is now happening and will stick.

Anyone who's been following the stock for a while got a view on the recent unusual activity in trades? I've followed this company for many years and the last few days have been very unusual for a stock that often goes weeks without a single trade - and when large volumes has come through the share price tends to move quite easily. We're now seeing large volumes on a daily basis by this stock's standards and a pretty stable share price. Interested to hear thoughts on what has suddenly changed (if anything).

Cash positive during a year of pandemic in India with net debt down is a really strong under-pinning for GEEC share price in my view. Key is access to the huge gas market of West Bengal and Kolkata and nice to see that we have a date for completion of this pipeline to these key markets. The Aug 2022 completion date given is another slip in timeline from the Dec 2021 guidance provided before and so can be seen as disappointing - but Covid19 is at least partly responsible. How soon before the share price begins to factor in this opportunity. GEEC is priced for almost certain failure so i would expect to see a significant re-rate as we head through the remainder of 2021 and first calendar half of 2022. Covid 19 sadly hasnt finished with India yet but GEEC has shown that it can continue to meet financial obligations, generate cash and reduce debt even with such a dreadful back drop.

There's no need for that kind of comment, especially if you don't have the mental acuity to spell ******ed correctly!

Nice reward today for long suffering GDR investors. Looking forward to more like this in the coming days