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Think that is right Scart. If GDR was currently in a bid situation with a prospective buyer looking to acquire a controlling stake in GDR then I think significant shareholders have to notify through every 1% threshold, but otherwise its 3% threshold on the way down as the last notifiable level as you say.
Spot on Trek. I'd be happy to see GDR raise some cash and remove any lingering doubts around having enough of a window to bring AIHL, HCV and TB fully to market. More cash opens to the way to a >£100m market cap. The 4 product areas that have been the longer term focus for the company are really sound, just need time. Only way company does not raise extra cash now is if they are so confident of getting C19 tests to market with partners prepared to fund this. Its one of those two outcomes and both look good to me.
Whilst the prize is undoubtedly huge, it is still worth tempering expectations for any company responding to this emergency. Just looking at FIND information on the number of organisations responding to the call for molecular diagnostics. 244 developed or in development and possibly still counting. Genedrive is in a strong position for a variety of reasons highlighted regularly on this board but worth keeping in mind the industry response and what that might mean for volumes and pricing outlook regarding GDR Sars Cov 2 tests
https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/
You are right of course Technick. my comment was a casual and slightly flippant response to an earlier post that stated the shares are currently trading near an all time high. Just to confirm, either as Epistem or Genedrive this is not the case.
We have indeed been invested here a long time. Only seems like yesterday that Epistem was going to rid the world of the scourge of undiagnosed TB and the last minute snatching of defeat from the jaws of victory when a deal with Becton Dickinson fell through because management hadn't realised that US power voltage and hertz of their electricity mains is different to the UK and therefore the machines didn't work properly when demo'ed to the BD team. Those were the days. I was happy to invest then so the prospects now are really exciting.
is nowhere near all time highs. When the company was known as Epistem and run by the highly optimistic and overconfident Matthew Walls the share price even started with a 6 handle and i'm not talking pence!
https://www.televisory.com/blogs/-/blogs/malaysian-rubber-glove-industry-impact-of-covid-19
Hopefully Indorama will be supplying so that Lohia family benefit not just through Indorama but through Vincel holding in SYM.
Came across this summary of diagnostics, treatments and vaccines. Not sure how thorough it is though (didn't see NCYT there fir example- did I miss it?) but gives some idea of how well placed GDR are when they get their product to market.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/heres-every-vaccine-and-treatment-development-covid-19-so-far
Punchy comments from UK health minster just now. Commitment to build a significant diagnostics capability in the UK. Large pharma without diagnostic capability to start developing it. Very significant support for UK based small diagnostics companies. Genedrive will not remain independent at this market cap. AstraZeneca for example will be evaluating cost to build versus cost to buy proven capability in Genedrive (and others). Of course flip side is that there will be many new entrants into this market as a result of C19.
Have a look at Genedrive also Sharehuzzarski if you are assessing providers of SARS Cov 2 test kits. A bit behind the competition timeline wise with a test kit 7 weeks away from market but a very strong heritage with point of care device already developed giving much greater options to apply to clinical care settings. Also, the business case is based on bio defence, TB, HCV and AIHL. SARS Cov 2 a very new string to the bow.
I still like SYM for longer term d2p and d2w applications, especially if anti viral properties for d2p are established. additives for materials used for high touch point items in healthcare premises, workplaces and in the home etc globally could amount to a very decent business unit not to mention the opportunities around FDA approval in anti-bacteria and anti-fungal packaging.
The size of GDR as a portfolio holding increased considerably relative to other holdings on March 25th so suspect it is just portfolio management, reducing the weight of GDR in portfolio(s) to better manage risk.
D9Ber1, check out posts from Ctw2014 and Technick for good summary and info on GDR across all their product development work
link here to the Guardian article yesterday which highlights some of the players who have/are developed or developing tests kits. Biomerica, Chembio Diagnostics, Mologic are named in the article but clearly there are others. Article also highlights that Singapore companies have developed tests also.
“Some are developed now. We are looking at the ones in Singapore,” Birx said on Monday at a White House press briefing. “We are very quality-oriented. We don’t want false positives.” UK government also emphasised this point so it might be fair to infer that speed, accuracy and low cost combination for testing kits has not been resolved yet. Interesting though that the article states Mologic tests would sell for £1 in the UK and less than $1 in developing countries.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/covid-19-self-test-could-allow-return-to-work-says-public-health-england
UK government saying that would rather have no tests than bad tests that give inaccurate assessments of infection. Are sitting on a lot of potential test kits but are evaluating for accuracy. Once they have found robust test and can source at scale then one of the priorities is to answer critical question of asymptomatic cases. People who never knew they had the virus and so this could be a huge part of the population, maybe even the majority of the population eventually. * weeks is a long time to wait and will be important to monitor what the results are for other tests and their accuracy in the meantime. But its clear that many, many millions of further tests will be needed and the really accurate ones will obviously grab the lions share especially if they can be transported and stored easily. Be good if GDR could accelerate further the production of these. But I don't have any concerns around time taken for approval of test. Govt's are desperate and are running these approval processes on all options now.
Still here Ctw and good to see that you are too and reaping the benefits of your patience on GDR.
Many thanks technick for these excellent insights. Your technical knowledge ways exceeds mine so I don't think I can add anything on the NCYT v GDR debate. What I am thinking is that we are a couple of years away from a world where herd immunity has been achieved globally either through infection and recovery and/or vaccination. Given that, healthcare systems will be stockpiling SARs COV 2 tests if possible and definitely securing access to rapid manufacturing of tests due to the fact that within this period of time to global herd immunity outbreaks of Cov19 are going to popping up everywhere sporadically. The world cant stay in lockdown for ever. If GDRs tests can be stockpiled and they produce the only stockpilable test (with a POC option in the future) then this is a obviously a very exciting development most importantly in terms of saved lives as well as returns to shareholders. However I defer to the expertise of those with the technical knowledge to compare the pros and cons of the tests and solutions that are available and being developed by many organisations around the world.
The FCA has recommended that UK listed companies, due to announce results in the next 2 weeks, postpone the announcement of preliminary results for at least 2 weeks. The recommendation has been made because of the level of uncertainty in economic activity and the need for businesses to be better able to assess impacts on their businesses before reporting. Suspect therefore that if SYM was thinking of issuing a prelim statement in the next few days they probably wont now for another few weeks. Also think this is a good thing. Would much rather have an update that can point to tangible evidence of an improved outlook based on sales, enquiries and further trial and test results.
https://www.fca.org.uk/news/statements/fca-requests-delay-forthcoming-announcement-preliminary-financial-accounts
Should also point out that the same JP Morgan research indicates economic rebound in Q3 and Q4 resulting in -1.5% for US economic growth for the full year.
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-jpmorgan-usa-idUSU5N281010
These economics forecasts are usually wrong though. We really have no idea how this is all going to unfold. Clearly financial markets are still signalling for central banks and governments globally to do more, which I believe they will. Like many companies Cap-xx will be hit by the slowdown and will benefit from any rebound. Key is having enough cash to ride the downturn out. For holders like me who are looking at their holding now reduced to option value, that is the choice now. Cap-xx doesn't have a lot of cash and is not EBTDA positive so 1) Leave remaining investment in as an option play on short duration economic slowdown and Q3/4 economic rebound or 2) decline to pay for this option by locking in a huge loss and selling out on view of extended recession/depression. Everyone will have different opinions and views so take them all onboard, consider and place your bet. Good luck to all
£18m market cap. Roughly half forecast sales for 2021 and just over 1x forecast operating profit for 2021 and less than 1x 2021 EBITDA. Gas evacuation on go slow and will rise when agreement in place to supply GAIL pipeline to Kolkata, which has more or less been built and is nearing commissioning. Shale exploration kicker to significantly increase gas volumes in the medium term. India on track to meet Paris Climate Agreement based NDC with 15% gas in national energy mix by 2030.
Strategic asset, climate aligned, profitable, cash generative and extremely low valuation. Market pricing in a lot of grim news here. Looks like a good risk reward maybe.
Looks like Capital Group are out. Expect that Kalsi has bought these shares through his investment firm which will now own just shy of 90% of the issued share capital. Barely worth retaining the London listing. Shares are hugely good value at this level. However, will be seriously illiquid so could rapidly appreciate in price on small vols but also be virtually impossible to sell without being taken down a long way. 35p for Capital's exit is an incredibly bad exit price for Capital. This would have been negotiated for some time I expect so with the overhang now gone its a good opportunity to get involved.
A bit more light on the discussions around shale exploration and the barriers to moving this forward.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/private-firms-keen-on-shale-gas-exploration-demand-concessions/articleshow/74183509.cms