RE: Thoughts...20 Mar 2023 10:39
Clearly a very unfriendly development for privat e shareholders in geec. I’m personally taking a moment reflect on what’s happening here and what my (very limited) options are.
This was already a very illiquid stock to trade, as highlighted by management, but OTC trading looms and so will be even more liquid.
I think there is a small chance there is a relisting on another exchange. Reason for this is that geec have big investment plans and access to public markets will be an important route to getting finance for their growth.
The delisting here in this instance is not due to company failing! In fact as mentioned in previous posts the company is well positioned in growing gas markets with rising gas prices and demand.
Outlook for company as they deliver on growth plans in the next years should mean that investors can negotiate in OTC markets a higher value than you can get for your shares now.
Worth considering that in time significant dividend could come through for shareholders as free cashflow builds from increasing sales and falling capex. Granted this will be several years away.
Geec may even be bought out in time by Essar or ONGC, which would equate to an industry determined fair market value and result in a potentially good return for investors here. Again though- long term outcome with very little liquidity in the meantime and far from certain that this will happen.
Shareholders will retain the holdings in the company though but will likely see dilution as geec seeks funding for growth. However, again without public market listing they are limited to farm in and debt. Debt alone won’t raise enough and so it’s a farm in or no funding. Remember that the company need $2bn of capex to maximise value of opportunity.
Early conclusion from me is that is a cynical move by management to grab the lions share of remaining shares at ultra knock down prices just ahead of what management can see is a period of significant value creation. For that reason I’m going to hang on with my investment and take my chances in private markets, potential for dividends and take out and a possible relisting in time. I’ve been invested for many years and will now have to stick this out for a good number more years. Believe though that I will get much more back in the long run by holding out rather than selling into this highly distorted market.
Those selling ahead of this rns in size almost certainly knew this was likely coming and so will be bringing to attention of FCA.
Feeling sick though like other investors here and have no remaining respect for management and their greed! Determined to get value from my investment though.