Member Info for TroytoTiber

Stew, Is that view an exasperated response to the drifting share price or some other information that you have seen?

Suspect it’s just that gdr board, brokers and advisors didn’t want the insolvency issue affecting the fund raise earlier this year. Would have been beginning to gauge interest from institutions and any other options soon after Cytox insolvency decision so decided to delay it to avoid any further undermining of confidence. Can’t see why it would have anything to do with a bid for GDR.

New news that customer contract expires in a few days?

Also mention of company seeking external and/or shareholder funding if needed to help meet cash requirements. I guess we’re being warmed up in event things don’t work out with customer contract renewal and new customers are sought. There is a substantial customer receivable on the balance sheet though that will give a bit of a cushion

What I’m not sure on is how imported LNG volumes and pricing fluctuations affect the centralised ‘notified’ price referenced in the article posted by xkat.

with landed LNG prices for west coast of India still above the notified price by some margin, there should no direct affect on the price that focus oil can secure from GAIL on take or pay under current contractual arrangements. But there must be some impact of LNG volumes at least in the medium term on that notified rate. The article posted is from March this year and so notified prices that had risen into March may have come down. Other factors such as exchange rates with US $ will have an influence as well.

I find the pricing mechanisms opaque and difficult to understand but maybe the more important factor is the relative pricing of gas per unit of energy to other more traditional forms of energy such as coal and fuel oil. Even that too has to be set against the longer term driver of Indian energy policy moving towards cleaner energy like renewables and gas as a transition fossil fuel.

Complex picture but one that Indus is relatively insulated from due to exclusive supply agreement and neither Indus gas field nor customer being connected to the national gas grid.

So I think this really just comes down to licence renewal, improvement in customer operational performance and conclusions of strategic review to enhance shareholder value in the short term and then gas grid connectivity and field production expansion in the medium to long term.

There is no pipeline currently connecting Indus’s production to the national gas grid in India. It’s been under consideration for quite a while but no decision yet made I believe.

The gas supply agreement for the power station is also with GAIL and is take or pay. So I’m assuming that GAIL still need to pay for a minimum volume regardless of whether the turbines are operating. If correct then this should help maintain a minimum level of revenue in the event of a prolonged outage.

It has also been the case in other areas that natural gas producers have trucked gas production to nearby urban centres of demand in absence of grid connected pipeline. Indus’s operations might be too remote for this though making the option uneconomic.

Understood (and agree) Ctw. Appreciate the feedback.

Ok. Thanks for the response

Would be grateful for thoughts and reflections from those that attended the investor meet session with SYM today.

Will listen to the recording when available but interested in what folk here thought of any update on the outlook.

Many thanks.

Slowly moving in the right direction. As always it’s about what’s in store in the future although the improvements in margins is welcome. Company could well be trading at break even or net profit for Q3. Hopefully some clarity on that in the investor

Call later.

Maybe the next update is the one that reports a step shift in sales growth?

I contacted FTSE to find out what their position is on AIM listed company requirements to report and update on financially material issues. Have message back to say that enquiry has been escalated to AIM regulation dept. If others here want answers then will help to contact FTSE as well and add weight to the request for info.

Hopefully results in pressure on company to update.

Would need to check through the details of accounts but I think interest has been capitalised for several years while development of wells has progressed and production increased. But what the P&L treatment of this is I’m not sure. The cashflow impact is obviously zero where all interest is capitalised.

I suspect that the assets that have been developed wouldn’t be dismantled as the new PSC would require assets to be sold to another operator if Indus did not get the 10 year renewal. How a value for the sale would be determined is anyone’s guess. But I really don’t know as have never seen it happen before so just a guess.

Note 16 in the report and accounts for 2023 shows Gynia Holdings as the lender of $634m with interest rate of 6.5% and no stated maturity. Given that Gynia also own >80% of the equity of Indus it’s reasonable to assume that they will be a forgiving lender. Ultimately debt will need to be paid down but assume that will be done so in way that is best for Indus and its dominant shareholder.

Good to have a date for interim results announcement and presentation. Sales and profit to end June should show some growth as this was indicated as expected in last update. More interested in post balance sheet date developments and immediate outlook to year end though. I’m optimistic that we’re almost at an inflection point for sales growth so this could be an interesting investor Q and A.

Good call. Looks like rns tomorrow (or maybe later today)

8.30pm in India now. Relevant government department office likely closed. Indus must know what outcome is. 1) still under review 2) extension granted or 3) extension not granted.

Probably 1 and we’ll find out tomorrow.

I think all potential outcomes for the decision are financially material for investors to be updated on and so the minimum expectation would be for an rns of what the situation is regarding the licence extension tomorrow morning.

Additional information on any relevant implications of any decision would be nice but I doubt we get anything given recent track record in shareholder communications from the board.

will have to be an rns later today or tomorrow morning. either it will say that licence extension has been awarded, or that more time has been granted to make the decision to extend or that licence has not been extended. given that the implications are obviously potentially financially material to the company then under aim rules indus are required to update and set out any financial implications for shareholders.

agree this is a ****show. with one very large dominant shareholder the board clearly have a total disregard for the minority shareholders. gynia will be in full knowledge of the situation here no doubt.

management not for purpose. the general back drop for natural gas suppliers in india is pretty good right now. indus have been operational for many years with a proven gas field resource. management seem to be trying to steal defeat from the jaws of victory! was once over £10 per share, incredible really.

Reminder also that Laurier put £100k of own money into SYM recently with last placing. He’s a big shareholder in the company with over 10% holding now (I think). Very aligned interests to PIs. Last placing also at a premium to current share price indicates Somerston and Vincel happy to build shareholdings at what still considered by them to be significantly undervalued share price.

They might all be wrong of course but reckon they have much better visibility on prospects than me. Happy to follow their lead.

Agreed. Aug 1st last year for trading update and Sept 29th for interims. I fear that will be more of the same at these updates this time with some initial sales traction becoming evident right at the end of the calendar year. That’s my prediction at least and would be delighted to be proved wrong ( with a more positive update earlier)!

Did anyone receive a response from the company to questions on clarifying the situation with licence renewal? I didn’t get any answers. Series questions over management capability, integrity and governance. Incredible really that they forgot to apply for a business critical licence extension in good time. And then they don’t even have the decency to reply to legitimate questions from concerned shareholders.

Hoping for a positive update obviously and I think most agree that share price should rise significantly if/when it lands. But to be running it to within a week of expiry is just plain negligent in my view.