Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
No problem Bismarck. I dont think the research has much bearing on the current share price move as Arden Partners for example have had a similarly high share price target for the last few years. For me there has clearly been a lot of shares changing hands recently and i think that's relieved the selling pressure that has been hanging over this stock for quite a while. No significant ownership RNS's though so i am confused as to what has actually happened. Agree with you that in the absence of a significant buyer - if another large shareholder shows themselves as a seller, then the shares will likely fall quite a bit. I dont see that happening right now as the significant value offered at this stock price should continue to attract buyers and not sellers - and as said above the very large sellers are already out (i suspect). There cant be many if any long-term institutional or private investors with 1m or more shares still. Please share an updated table of largest shareholders though if you have it.
For those interested, research focusing on mostly the potential short to longer term valuation for GEEC is available at https://www.spangel.co.uk/research/#/portal/sp-angel . Usual caveats apply as SP Angel act as corporate broker to the company.
Actually the share price bottomed out at less than 10p in Feb 2021 - but i think the point still stands.
Thanks Hasiba! Happy to share my thoughts. In truth though the share price peaked in April 2010 at over 500p a share and recently bottomed out at just over 10p a share in April /May 2021 (i hope they have bottomed at least). That means i've been wrong on this for 11 years :) . Hopefully the patience and research is about to pay off. Lets see. there's a lot for this company to do still to crystalise the potential intrinsic value.
Great you took the plunge though at what could be an incredible entry price!
Its possible i guess. Essar Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Limited operate the neighbouring concession so must be significant synergies in bringing the two together. GEEC would be pocket change at this level for Essar O&G. However, GEEC majority owned by the Modi fmily with near 70% ownership and i think they are in for the long haul and have indicated that they think the resource is worth over $1bn NPV. The current share price - even after todays move - is a very shy of what i think the Modi family would accept.
Think you're right Hasiba. Just a lifting of the persistent stock overhang or something else? A lot of shares have changed hands over the last few weeks and now the market looks to be pretty tight (at least for now). I'm hopeful the long awaited re-rate is now happening and will stick.
Anyone who's been following the stock for a while got a view on the recent unusual activity in trades? I've followed this company for many years and the last few days have been very unusual for a stock that often goes weeks without a single trade - and when large volumes has come through the share price tends to move quite easily. We're now seeing large volumes on a daily basis by this stock's standards and a pretty stable share price. Interested to hear thoughts on what has suddenly changed (if anything).
Cash positive during a year of pandemic in India with net debt down is a really strong under-pinning for GEEC share price in my view. Key is access to the huge gas market of West Bengal and Kolkata and nice to see that we have a date for completion of this pipeline to these key markets. The Aug 2022 completion date given is another slip in timeline from the Dec 2021 guidance provided before and so can be seen as disappointing - but Covid19 is at least partly responsible. How soon before the share price begins to factor in this opportunity. GEEC is priced for almost certain failure so i would expect to see a significant re-rate as we head through the remainder of 2021 and first calendar half of 2022. Covid 19 sadly hasnt finished with India yet but GEEC has shown that it can continue to meet financial obligations, generate cash and reduce debt even with such a dreadful back drop.
There's no need for that kind of comment, especially if you don't have the mental acuity to spell ******ed correctly!
Nice reward today for long suffering GDR investors. Looking forward to more like this in the coming days
You are correct....liquidity is a huge issue here. definitely not a trading stock. I believe that part of the reason for the significant discount is the lack of free float and very low traded volumes. However, for patient investors this represents an opportunity. Having been building a large position in GEEC over the last few years I'm always delighted to see new investors here. Few guarantees with an Indian-based small cap but if the stars align then the upside is huge - several hundred million market cap not several million as is now
Fingers crossed Hasiba. We should get a results announcement in July with more details on a number of fronts. Shale test drilling commencing, new customers from national pipeline link at Durgapur, london listing as well as update on pipeline progress to huge Kolkata market.
I also really want to know who bought M&G's stake in the company. IR wont respond to me and there has been no RNS.
someone has recently bought over 17m shares but there has been no rns to notify on subsequent % holding in GEEC.
same coalfield i meant to say not coal seam.
https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/pipeline-commissioning-helps-essar-deliver-coal-gas-to-fertiliser-plant/80741651
Essar operate in the Raniganj coal bed as neighbours to GEEC., both extracting methane from the same coal seam. Essar are communicating well about how the new GAIL owned pipeline is transforming the market in terms of demand for gas in the region and this is kickstarting plans to expand production. GEEC also have gas production, they now have a rapidly scaling local market and a route to that market so why are the company not communicating in the same way as Essar on this? Time for management to step up their game and secure an offtake agreement with GAIL, fully open the taps and get drilling more wells. This surely is bread and butter to a gas exploration company so it is very frustrating that management arent saying more about what they are paid to do as part of their standard every day job!
M&G Investment Management now finally out having sold all their shares now. This has been weighing on the share price for a long time and such an enormous overhang of stock has suppressed the shares down to extremely low levels. I expect a significant re-rate here now to maybe 30p to 40p range. Interested to know who the buyer is as well. Could well be the Modi family but hope that we have a new institutional owner here. Next few months are set to be full of news with the new pipeline to Kolkata operational at Durgapur and due to be operational to Kolkata within a year from now as well as possible main market listing. Looking good!
Foundation stone laid at Haldia for commencement of the final leg of the pipeline from Durgapur through Kolkata and to the coast. Also Dhobi - Durgapur stretch of pipeline completed. This should open up new demand for gas in the immediate region, which will benefit GEEC. Essar operate the neighbouring CBM field in Raniganj (Durgapur) to GEEC. They had this to say:
"Essar had last year reached a peak production capacity of 438 million cubic meters per year in the Raniganj asset and will ramp up production now that the pipeline has been commissioned and expand its customer base from current industries in the nearby areas to far and beyond districts in the eastern region.
It plans to start the balance drilling and associated development task of around 250 additional wells as part of an expansion plan to achieve the sales volume of 1 billion cubic metres.
India is one of leading gas consuming nations in the world and Shri Modi’s vision of having a one nation- one gas grid is an important step in making India a gas-based economy.
The government is therefore focussing on creating a robust gas-pipeline infrastructure network.
The Dobhi-Durgapur stretch of the Urja Ganga pipeline project will directly benefit not only West Bengal but also 10 districts of Bihar and Jharkhand. It will also provide gas as feedstock to fertiliser plants, CNG to vehicles and piped gas to the homes of the region. Next to be completed in this stretch is the Durgapur-Haldia stretch of Jagdishpur-Hadlia and Bokaro-Dhamra pipeline."
thoughts on working capital to finance this? GDR have a million beads in stock some or all of which have now headed off for a BC lab(s) somewhere in the US. With at least £500k per month cash burn to keep the lights on at GDR they dont have enough cash to build any more inventory of beads (at roughly £3 per bead). They therefore cant scale volumes of beads quickly without more cash. Options are:
1) Beckman or Cytiva are financing the growth in supply of beads. This would be wrapped up in existing NDAs
2) GDR have secured a working capital finance provider (loan) - not unreasonable if they have a large guaranteed order backing the loan.
3) Another equity raise. Suspect unlikely as DB has stated that numbers of beads scale pretty quickly so sounds as if he already has a plan in place. However always a risk, so next few days or weeks this is a possibility - even if a small one.
Any other options?
It's possible Sterling are accumulating but only a £47m fund value by the looks of it so if they are buying more they aren't going to be a big buyer. A disclosable holding would be about 6.5% of their portfolio which is possible but hoping for a IIs with deeper pockets and someone has been buying a lot of shares!
Interesting comments here from the Chairman of GAIL (delivering the gas pipeline infrastructure for GEEC to sell into). Indicating that 2021 is the year for commissioning for most of the Jagdishpur to Haldia pipeline.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvy_6E2YisY
Manoj Jain also made comments recently (in other footage) on growth in gas volumes and impact on GAIL financials. He is bullish on rising volumes through the pipeline network and speaks of the large fertiliser plants coming on stream in 2021 and 2022 taking gas from the Jagdishpur to Haldia pipeline. Also highlights Kolkata city gas growth as a medium term significant driver.
No idea why GEEC arent communicating more on this as 2021 and 2022 will be transformation years for GEEC in terms of sales volumes and resumption of well development (CBM and shale).
Not under any illusions as to how long it will take to get vaccination extensively rolled out in India but the process is now under way so we can maybe also now look to 2022 full year results being somewhere near normal. Taking 2020 full year results as normal then GEEC is currently trading on 0.5x revenues, 1x operating profit and 2x net income for 2022. 2022 forecast revenues are actually currently higher at £26m so shares on less than 0.5x 1 year forward revenues. Factor in sales into the new gas pipeline to Kolkata and there is significant upside here. Company claiming that this pipeline will be operational by end of Feb 2021 and then we will see a gradual post covid vaccination return to normal over the course of 2021 and into 2022. Key short-term consideration is net debt and liabilities payable within 1 year. £43m net debt and £10m of debt repayable needs some managing but if refinancing can be arranged at similar rates to existing debt then suspect that this removes the last real hurdle to a very significant re-rate. Critical few weeks of newsflow ahead on this and the pipeline. Also look out for Main market listing and shale gas exploration commencing both of which could give another kicker to the share price.