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Agree with you Bismarck. I guess that’s what makes a market so good opportunity for buyers. Company needs to just make a bit more progress on commercialising the resource and the shares should begin to move meaningfully upwards.

Think SP Angel will revise their price target upwards soon as well. Broker advise is usually total rubbish so maybe can’t base too much on this but the delta of the price target move will be the interesting element. Ie if 25% up or down then irrespective of the actual price target that should equate to a similar move in the underlying share price. Probably too simplistic to look at it that way though. Whatever, still feel that the shares are very significantly underpriced.

https://*********************/companies/uk/oil-gas-e-ps/great-eastern-energy-corporation-limited-sponsored-gdr-regs/research/sp-angel/sp-angel-energy-fy22-results-upgraded-shale-potential-geec-ln-/7_2022070802102293211/ba5000f2-45bb-43df-ab8f-046a687d6f90

Happy weekending!

Agreed! Looks like sales only to 4 countries so far in rivulis global coverage and management stating expectations of further orders this year. Great to see sym delivering on what they have been indicating recently. More evidence that this is an inflection point for company sales and profits

Someone wants to get out of their investment here!

Suspect that there’s no meaningful change in financials with the results on Friday. Sales, profits and cash will probably show a modest uplift at best.

Hopefully and more meaningfully the company might give us some good detail on the drilling plan, discussions with GAIL for an off take arrangement for the gas, and an update on the pipeline construction from Durgupur.

Many thanks Hounddog and Shatter. To clarify the sales forecast I took was from market screener and was for full year 2023. From memory the 2022 full year revenue forecast is for around £11.5m (worth double checking that).

I agree on the profits based multiple as high margin high growth ( if we get the high growth now) will command a punchy multiple on days with strong sentiment.

Dividend is an interesting idea! Agree no signifoxant capex requirements so payout could be quite high and with good near term growth. Would be a confident signal from management.

£14m is the revenue forecast for the year to end Dec 2023. This is before the grupo bimbo news yesterday. I have no idea how to estimate what the annual sales from the new GB contract could be worth but £5m feels like a reasonably conservative estimate. Given the increased confidence around further sales forecast uplifts related to d2w and d2p outlined in the agm statement today revenue for 2023 could easily be £20m or even as high as £25m.

What that means for company valuation is again an estimation. I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch to assume 3x sales for a low capex and low operating cost business model. That would give a £75m valuation target for the equity over the course of the next few months as investors get more visibility on the 2023 sales forecast. Granted there are A couple of ifs in there but if sales start getting booked for d2w in Latin America as well as traction with the Indorama jv then share price doubles from here on confirmation of those in my opinion. Just an opinion though and would be interested to read what others think on sales for 2023 and valuation. Thanks. Troy

Very significant update and a massive validation for d2p. No details on commercial terms but I think safe to assume that this will make a large difference to sales and profits over the next years. Global sales should follow shortly. Sym true to their guidance that 2022 will see step shift in sales revenue.

Bring on the shale gas discoveries Bismarck!
Good time to buy as seems there is a persistent seller in the background providing liquidity and holding the price down.

Agreed Agricore that todays news is an under-appreciated positive. If they prove up 6.6trn cubic feet of gas in the shale then it won’t be under appreciated for long. It’s an ‘if’ for now so we’ll have to wait until we get the exploratory drill hole results.

Just the update investors wanted to see. There are no guarantees obviously but proving up of the estimated gas in the shale at raniganj would propel the share much higher.

Also good to get an small update on the gas pipeline, albeit just that it is progressing.

Pieces falling into place here. Proof of Commercial shale gas volumes and completion of the pipeline news should arrive in the next few months. Would also expect an off take agreement to be put in place with GAIL when shale gas volumes confirmed.

Notice that the old story of geec looking to invest $2bn in shale gas over the coming years has surfaced again in the press and on the company website - dated June 5th.

The interim results from the company mentioned expectation of final approvals to be received for shale gas drilling later in 2021. We didn’t get these approvals in 2021 but I’m wondering if the rerun of the story now indicated that the company have reason to believe the approvals are imminent?

Looking at stars, had a smile and an element of discomfort reading your post as I’m forced to confront the fact that I first invested in SYM around 15 years ago. I’ve added over this time and like you have ended up with a large holding and a sense of bewilderment at how I’ve gotten into this situation. I agree Laurier needs a rocket up his backside from investors but I also agree with ctw. The updates of late to seem to have a higher degree of conviction in a significant uplift in near term sales than the usual optimism that’s been rolled out over the last years. So I think we can do both, signal to the board investor unhappiness as well as remain optimistic for the rest of 2022.
I think a little more patience here will be rewarded!

D2p news on the horizon would be my guess - North America sales update and/or update on sales traction in other countries.

I think we're on the same page here Agricore. My point on the debt is in line with yours in that the balance sheet is in good order so rising interest rates is not a problem a the moment. They will though have to pay higher interest on debt that matures and is refinanced so merely highlighting that any existing or new investor should inform themselves of what this will mean for the company

regarding the 20 to 30 transition im in total agreement with you, again, my point being that geec is a structural growth play which reduces the importance of cyclical changes in demand and economic activity. The shift from coal to gas & renewables over the coming decades will provide stronger year over year growth than might be seen across a slowing economy for example.

23p is a great price to buy more shares at so congratulations on that purchase

Interesting day for geec share price. There’s a persistent seller around, selling blocks of 5000 or multiples of 5000 for a few months now. But combined with a surprise interest rate hike by the Indian central bank and geec has taken a hit.

Worth remembering that interest rate rises have been flagged in India for a while (like with much of the world) - no surprise that they are coming it’s just the timing that has spooked investors.

Also worth noting that 10 year govt bond yields in india are back to levels last even in 2019. Geec traded at 50p or so then with arguably a more stretched balance sheet then. I don’t think a few interest rate rises will stretch geek’s ability to pay interest on their debt immediately but interest cover is worth checking out and being sure on as the company have some debt refinancing to go through in the next year or two and they may have to lock in a higher rate.

Final point - geec is a structural play on the transition away from coal use to gas and renewables in india. This will play out over the next 20 to 30 years. Interest rate cycles will come and go during this time. Management just have to keep a relatively conservative balance sheet and these cycles won’t matter too much to the patient investor.

Own research vital as always but possibly some good days to come for patient investors with a longer time horizon to pick up good amount of shares.

https://m.timesofindia.com/city/kolkata/city-pockets-may-get-piped-cooking-gas-by-may-end/amp_articleshow/90990195.cms

This is the most positive update I’ve seen yet on the market access prospects for the huge Kolkata market to open up for GEEC. Really shouldn’t be underestimated how important this article is.

GAIL pessimistic scenario reported as September 2023 for pipeline completion. With that geec will crank up gas output from their raniganj field and begin to drill more wells. We should also see them then proceed with shale gas test wells, which if they come in positive should see a very large re-rate for geec stock.

Domestic energy security never more important than now and with gas the people of Kolkata will get significantly better air quality in the city, saving lives and improving health outcomes.

The company will update in July and again in November this year. We should get some positive messages from them in both.

Always a danger with sym that Laurier talks up opportunities only for nothing to come through in sales uplift. However, this time it does feel different. Deals ‘closing’ now in North America and India if I remember comments from the recent interview correctly. Maybe not going to be initially huge but guidance for revenues many multiples of current level. Question for me is what multiple of revenues should the company be valued on as the sales ramp up? Could easily support 2 to 3 times one year forward estimated sales. I’m likely getting carried away but £30m sales for the year to 2024 is very possible so maybe £100m valuation or somewhere near 60p in a years time. I’ll enjoy the dream for a little longer and then get back to reality.

Good luck with it agricore. Nice to hear from another investor in geec. I’ll post anything I find of interest but could be quite quiet until the company update in July and then again in November.

Not sure i understand why investors would sell GEEC at this point. Sadly, geopolitical tensions will be heightened for years to come leading to volatile energy and agriculture prices. Countries are already signalling moves to protect domestic production on both fronts. Global gas markets are tight as a drum as a result, which should encourage India's drive to develop domestic gas supplies more aggressively. But with Russia blocking exports of fertiliser to global markets and India being an important fertiliser producer, the outlook for increased demand for Indian production is strong. Fertiliser plants use gas as the primary feedstock and so with increased demand coming down the track then there will be increased demand for gas also. GEEC happens to be located close to several fertliser production plants in India. While the increased demand for gas may not feed through to GEEC directly, it certainly doesnt worsen the backdrop of market conditions for the company. I appreciate that commentators will state that investors are 'risk-off' at the moment but that doesnt stack up as a medium-term investment proposition. Now is the time to buy GEEC more than at any point in the last few years. Just my view of course. Do your own research (not that anyone is reading this).

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kolkata/land-acquisition-roadblock-hits-cng-roll-out-in-state/articleshow/88820631.cms

The saga seems to rumble on. Talk of re-routing the pipeline in and around Kolkata is at least something but clearly a reasonable amount of work still to do to get the land access permissions fully in place for the pipeline. Travesty really given the human health impact of polluted air in the city and the ability of CNG for the transport system as well as cleaner household cooking gas to significantly clean up air quality. No investment should be based on hope but hoping that common sense prevails here and remaining permissions come in quickly through 2022. Share price should do very well if we get that news!