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Great post Technick! Couldn't agree more

Only one shareholder (other the than Modi family) with a holding large enough to be selling in this quantity and that is M&G. Maybe forced seller but i think they have been properly played by Modi family here. Modi's know that there is no buyer for such a large block of stock so let shares drift down to mid single digits when they step in an buy the lot. They are probably the only buyer around of that size and so i wouldnt be surprised to see an RNS for their increased % holding and M&G's RNS for their decreased % holding. Pure speculation on my part though. Great to get this weight of selling out the way.

Just sharing an interesting article on risks around novel vaccine technology. Rushing through safety trials on a completely novel approach sits uneasily for most people. The article highlights the political imperative versus safety trade off that we are seeing here. Politics probably wins out so i'm not trying to suggest that vaccines are not going to be a feature of the landscape in 2021 but reading this only serves to highlight the lunacy of lowering safety requirements on a technology that hijacks the infrastructure of the human immune response. This is just one source of vaccine tech solution of course so just sharing for interest rather than linking to any bull or bear case for testing stocks.
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/everything-you-dont-want-know-about-covid-vaccines-because-you-cant-be-bullish-anymore

Agreed, welcome back Ctw! its been a while. Assumed you had taken your millions off the table at £3 earlier this year. (maybe you did and are back in after this share price slump?)

market maker willing to take over 100,000 shares at 8p so a reasonable buyer in the background which is good. Not sure there are many willing to sell at the price though. I'm definitely not!

Lots of comment around covid stocks terminal outlook on here since Pfizer's announcement so lets just clarify some things as we stand. First up, i own GDR, have done for years and dont consider myself a 'ramper'. Bit of confirmatory bias creeps in every now and again...as it does with all of us.

Second, if you're reading this and new to investing or dont know much about genedrive then DONT BUY THIS STOCK. Scraps of private investor money flowing in isnt going to make any difference to the share price anyway.

Third, the current market cap leaves very little in for Covid related sales or any other sales. Some comments on here that GDR might get some sales away though so lets build on that assumption. Assume 5m tests sold and that company makes £3 in net cash per test sold - thats £15m cash in the bank. There is also another £8m or so cash raised earlier this year. Thats £23m in total. Add in the £9m of market cap that GDR traded on before the Covid broke out. Thats £32 market cap. Ie not much different to where they are now. There are a whole host of reasons why GDR are better placed now across their core business than they were back in Feb - AiHL and HCV WHO approval to name the 2 significant ones

Fourth, If we have learned one thing from this crisis it is (and this is a desperately sad fact) that most governments havent got a clue how to execute quickly on a mass nationwide healthcare response. There is no hope in hell that they will suddenly have worked out how to deliver a vast global vaccination programme in the next few months. Just look at the mess they've made on pretty much everything covid to date.

Fifth, i'm like most on here that we would all welcome a fast track back to a world where covid was not an issue anymore. I welcome the prospect of vaccines and better therapeutics and testing to deliver some kind of normality. But vaccines and vaccine approvals is now pretty much a totally separate issue to GDR's share price. Its priced in and more. Other factors may sink GDR from here but it wont be more vaccine news. But im not ramping so i repeat - DONT BUY THIS STOCK if you dont know what your buying into.

Understand the frustration from many here. remember though that the company are inviting questions for their presentation session next week. I've submitted some around demonstrating pathways to commercialisation in concrete tangible terms and encourage investors to do the same. They have to answer these questions and so we all need to be asking them.
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/

agreed Hasiba. Although it only takes 1 seller looking to offload a few 10s of thousands and the share price collapses. Buyers can afford to hold off for now and let sellers implode the share price. Not sure though what is going on with the 50% bid/offer spread. market makers seem to be killing off any chance of anyone wanting to place a trade.

Time for management to step in and buy a lot of stock here to send a clear signal of confidence in the outlook!

This was a tough half with severe lockdown restrictions curtailing business activity and demand. Company still managed to generate positive cashflow and keep shrinking net debt position. In reality there will most likely be no widely available vaccine in India through 2021 so things will continue to be tough but if they are still generating cash as it looks they will be then i'm happy.

Company allude to 'market reports' of GAIL pipleline to Kolkata being operational in Feb 2021. If accurate then this is really great news. Huge market there and GEEC can look forward to selling everything it produces soon

Investors generally seem to have swung into recovery mode and looking for value in equity markets. This is a deep value opportunity. Unfortunately too illiquid for many institutional investors.

Nothing about shale gas permissions or timetable for test wells and nothing about a timeframe for main market listing in London, both of which would be good to hear about. All in though this is a good update. Looking forward to 2021!

Just listened to the presentation from David Wilson - Commercial Director at Avacta. He stated several times that every test would be needed in the UK and that 5m tests a day would be expected to return the UK back to some kind of normal and normal economic activity. 'Market can accommodate multiple and all test manufacturers' and 'everything that is produced will be sold and quickly'. He was also at pains to say that UK government now see home grown diagnostic companies as strategic national assets not just for this pandemic but also for the next one and that support to build this capability in the UK is a priority and will continue after Covid 19 crisis subsides.

Bound to talk his own company up and its prospects so pinch of salt required but highly supportive comments for GDR. PCR important but wont be able to do it alone and POC needed to facilitate the rapid and huge scale-up in testing volumes needed. If you think the GDR technology is no good then GDR will obviously struggle not just with Covid but also across other markets. If you think the technology is good then this is a strategic national asset selling for £60m. (can someone explain to me though how lateral flow technology links to GDR POC if at all?)

Several have stated already on this board and i fully agree that the bigger strategic picture is about partnerships, leading technology and scale. The pieces take a little time to get in place but we are nearly there now. The world has changed and diagnostics have the floor. Diagnostics is an industry that has represented only around 0.6% of European total healthcare expenditure. All governments have realised that effective and rapidly responsive healthcare of the future will need this figure to be much much higher. Dump GDR because of some short-term share price volatility and lack of a weekly RNS if you want but i think that would be a mistake. Just my view. DYOR as always (and maybe listen to this presentation on playback)

Looks like a few buyers nibbling again. not surprised at near £10m mkt cap. If we can keep the seller away for a while this might drift up nearer to £20 valuation. Hopefully the interim results will throw a bit of light on current trading and underlying profit in the new covid environment, pipeline to Kolkata issues, shale permits, and main london listing plans. Patience needed, but looks like a very good time to get in for the patient investor

That's Carlsberg i think!
If it was Carling it would be more like:
Investor 1 "That strategic tie-up with BC was good, I bet David Budd drinks Carling Black Label"
Investor 2: "Nah, he hasnt got any sales"

Think this analysis is spot on PP. You've extracted the key clauses there. GHIF have a statement of investment principles - setting out the principles by which they will make investment decisions. They have to stick to these as a matter professional code of conduct. They are signaling, as you say, that GDR is no longer the small cash-strapped company that they seek to support and so have to manage this holding in GDR down - as per their investment principles - as GDR becomes more established. The conversion of the loan to equity a few weeks ago now gives them the chance to do this and demonstrate that they are doing this, but allows also for a gradual approach and gives them the exposure to equity upside as newsflow comes in.

The only slight downside is that as GDR further demonstrates progress and strong cashflow GHIF will keep selling - and we have another 11%+ of the issued shares to go, but with positive news there should be plenty of buyers!

Does seem to be a lot. quick sense check - Times reported that daily cost of lockdown in the UK is £2.4bn. So every 42 days costs £100bn. Maybe assume 90 days to ease lockdown restriction which would be close to £200bn, which might make the moonshot plan seem reasonable if it was effective and even possible to test efficiently and accurately on that scale. But this above is based on the cost of the first lockdown. a second lockdown would most likely plunge the economy into a depression and so the extended nature of the downturn after a 2nd lockdown would be huge. Maybe £100bn to get us through the winter is a reasonable price to pay. Key though is could the plan work.

Its a big if, but if the UK did go down this route it surely would be almost unbelievable that GDR would not be involved to some degree if the validation process with BC is signed off. Highly accurate, saliva sample and automated lab processing. Too many ifs right now for me to get excited though. Something to keep half an eye on possibly.

Good luck Ritchie and let us know if/when you get in. I suspect there is no rush but we could see i little rise on anticipation when GEEC start drilling through shale. The main london listing could also bring a few more investors in as the shares are ISA allowed with all brokers then.

I dont think its right to say 'Its Beckman or bust'. at the very least the £8m fund raise ensured that GDR have enough cash to get through 2021 without any covid revenues. By early 2022 DoD, AIHL and HCV revenues will be picking up and operating cashflow will increasingly be able to fund investment and growth. TB test will become available in 2022 as well providing a further boost. So i really dont think that this company is bust if there are no covid revenues.

Will the share price fall back in the short-term if there are no covid revenues, almost certainly.

I'm definitely feeling the shared frustration of this board of the time its taken so far to commercialise the covid tests. Whilst the cytiva and beckman partnerships are strong paper there is still obviously much to prove. These last few weeks have seen many new tests being developed and approved around the world so its doubly frustrating, but the recent Abbott EUA news is a blow. Abbott have huge influence and sway and being able to provide so many tests a week by October massively squeezes the market opportunity for GDR. As a long term holder of GDR i still really like the company and the prospects but i do increasingly feel that GDR, despite the great work they have done on covid test development to date, have missed the boat. doesnt worry me though that much as im prepared to wait for another couple of years. If covid is to yield any cashflow for GDR they really need to get their lab and POC tests commercial very very soon! IMO. :¦

which is why a Litigation Funding Agreement with a large U.S. litigation finance specialist would put this option for Tesla out of play. Wrong to say there is a risk of bleeding cap-xx dry if Cap-xx choose this option and it completely changes the dynamics of the process. Nanoco have chosen this route with Samsung and the patent infringement case looks even stronger for Cap-xx v Tesla so i suspect a litigation funding agreement could be put in place quite easily.

Thanks Grim and yes, still here and still hopeful....optimistic even!

Tesla will be a difficult case to bring and i dont see them rolling over easily. If i were AK and the Cap-xx board i'd go for a Litigation Funding Agreement with a very large U.S. litigation finance specialist with extensive experience in financing technology-based IP patent litigation matters. If they can signal that they have the funding and expertise to take Tesla on and that they have the existing patent infringement decision at their backs also then Tesla back down more quickly in my view. I'd be happy to pay away some of the settlement monies in return for making this kind of statement of intent and greater certainty of success as well as earlier out of court settlement.

Sadiq it very much depends on your level of conviction, risk tolerance and investment time horizon to my mind. Behavioural finance plays a big part in most investors decision making and loss aversion is a key behaviour to watch out for. No-one likes to lock in a loss and so can become irrational in their assessment that things will get better and the investment will move into profit in due course. One way to help overcome this is to re-appraise all your investments every week and assume you are starting with a blank piece of paper. If you can get into the mindset of "I dont hold Genedrive, would i buy it now" you will get a good sense of what you should do.

While doing that it is also important to try and get a good handle on what the current share price is discounting in terms of sales, profits and cashflow. I look at several possible scenarios in terms of sales across the different diagnostic target markets and the timing of those sales. Then i try different multiples on the sales to get a range of possible valuations to see where in that range Genedrive currently is. This helps me to assess what chances of success the market is currently giving Genedrive. If you conclude the chances of success discounted by the market are currently low then that helps to underpin the share price and indicate a reasonable risk/reward. Ultimately though no-one can tell you what to do i would just recommend removing emotion as far as possible , run the scenarios as above and then ask yourself if you had no holding would you buy it now.