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More buying from directors signalling confidence!

Blocks of 100k shares coming in. Very unusual. Could be management buying more. Unlikely to be a private investor (unless they have very deep pockets!). So maybe and institutional buyer. There were over 1m shares sitting somewhere looking for a home so this goes a long way to soaking up that overhang. Hopefully shares back to 50p level soon!

The £20 per test is about right there I think Nick. If you go back through the Proactive Investor UK site interviews with Budd he mentions this if i remember correctly. Whilst this is great news, and GDR continue to hit milestones across all of their commercial priorities in terms of development (sometimes with delays) i suspect it will take a while for international markets to develop for AIHL and therefore for the share price to reflect this potential. I cant comment on the scale of this market opportunity and so i don't know about your estimate of £18m annual revenues. What i do know is that is the UK market alone is worth between £1.5m and £2.5m in revenue per year and you put that on a conservative 2x sales (given high gross margins on these tests) and throw in DoD sales at 1x revenues then you get to around the current equity value of the company. That means the whole of the HCV and TB opportunity is in for free as well as any other potential new markets and roll out of AIHL in further countries. That's quite a negative statement of the companies potential and so GDR is a buy in my view.

More purchases from the directors and majority owners of GEEC. Very good to see. If I were them I would keep buying

There it is. Right on cue but not a huge amount of stock! Still why would they buy any if they felt the outlook was bad. Intended as a signal to the market but for me should have been a bigger purchase like 500,000 to really have impact.
The pipeline to Kolkata, agreement with GAIL to sell gas into the pipeline and getting drilling again in Raniganj (with or without shale) all necessary developments to get a meaningful re-rate here

A divi seems a way off I think 60p given that they have stated that they plan to spend at least 100s of millions in expanding production. I’d love to receive a divi though just that there is a large gas reserve to monetise as the priority.

No negative surprises in the interims. But have to say that I really don’t like the way these guys report. They are not trying very hard to convince of the potential of the company other than the laughable $4bn discounted value of the company.

They still haven’t secured shale drilling permissions. Essar have theirs though so there is another delay here. They also could be drilling out further wells in the raniganj block so as to feed the pipeline when operational to Kolkata by dec 2020. But no mention of this.

Average production rates of gas data provided also for a very specific and short timeframe. Why? Just leaves questions on underlying longer term production rates.

It trades on a massive discount to peers but while Prashant Modi runs things it will continue to. Very frustrating!!

Totally agree 60p. I don't for a minute think that GEEC would sell, or even get approached given the controlling family interest. Hopefully though they are exploring opportunities for synergies with Essar on exploration and field development. And also agree that the London listing is much more about kudos.

Best of luck with the position. I have been here for a long time and have collected a reasonable sized stake already - which is now underwater with the recent share price plummet. I will be topping up if I get the chance after the results this week, (but the bid offer may have moved nicely up by then if there is some positive 'new' news - -lets hope so).

Once results are out and close period over I would expect management to be buying stock with it trading at these levels. Lets see! If I was a board level director at Essar I would also be having a conversation with GEEC about buying the company. Never going to happen with Modi family majority shareholding but synergies are up for grabs by integrating field development plans and Essar could offer a heafty premium with the shares down here and still make a very significant return. Hopefully more to be revealed on Nov 7th or shortly after.

I'm about to sell some of my holding tomorrow (as am really not interested anymore in GCM) and every time I've sold in the past the shares have rallied strongly literally within days after. So, applying this robust logic holders here will be in for a good rally very soon!

Thanks Ctw. I think you've reminded me 3 times over the last few months on Booth holding and I forget every time! Age.....and the strain showing of owning this share. :)

Odd 16p sell and an odd 28p buy. Watching this daily isn't giving me any joy. I think I need to forget about GDR for a while and return in the new year

Whatever has just happened here its great to see 2 way trade return. now a chance for share price to begin to reflect fundamentals. AIHL in the UK alone, 90,000 test annually at £20 a test is £1.8m and maybe can put this on 2x sales so £3.6m. Then DoD sales, more lumpy so maybe £1m a year and on 1x sales to be conservative. So that gives is £4.6m valuation v market cap of around £7m. Meaning that all of HCV, TB and AIHL in other (non UK) markets is in for around £2.5m. Given the size of those opportunities the market is factoring in a near 0% chance of success in these. But of course there is no guarantee that AIHL in UK setting is commercial as trials still ongoing. However, valuations around single digit £m look to be factoring in very little improvement in forecasts.

I agree Riddler that there appears to have been a large overhang of available stock in the background for some time now and have commented on this in the past. It strikes me as odd though that the notification of new legal ownership of a holding which was not being sold down anyway removes this overhang. The last notification we had from PRU was that they were buying. I don't doubt the change sudden change in stock availability experienced by you yesterday, but I am questioning what is exactly going on here. Market makers have much more information than us so we may still be in the dark on something and that something is clearly positive.

Regarding the situation with background sellers and falling share prices, I can think of one very notable example where the share price fell over 75% without a single share being sold by an institution who wanted to exit. The market makers knew of the intentions of the seller and walked the price down until a level was reached where the deal could execute. Hence no notifications to the market 'cos no thresholds were crossed until the deal was done. So just the existence of a background owner of stock with an intention to sell is enough to move share prices sharply down in illiquid situations. Maybe therefore Booth has decided to hang on to her remaining shares? Who knows. I know I don't know. I may of course be that Pru had decided to sell genedrive since their last purchase in December 2018. The above logic would then apply equally for Pru as it does for Booth. So maybe that is what has happened.

Prudential have not been sellers of this stock so I don’t see that this removes a stock overhang. It is merely a notification that post the demerger of prudential and m&g effective yesterday, the genedrive holding is now owned by m&g. We have no idea what their intentions are although I suspect they plan to continue to hold. I’m surprised at the share price move if it’s on this news only to be honest. If I’ve missed something can someone please explain?

Catherine booth sold around a quarter of her substantial shareholding fairly recently And may be looking to exit further which would keep a lid on the share price. Her selling is the more likely stock overhang to my mind.

60p. Good to have company on this board! Long since given up thinking GEEC was attracting any attention from anywhere.
I wont be dipping back into the market for GEEC stock until after Nov 7th. Would be very happy to see it rise on these results but something tells me it'll be disappointing. Need to see 3 things happen before forecast profits start rising. 1) gas pipeline to Kolkata is completed. 2) GEEC announces agreement to sell gas into GAIl network pipe without too much of a discount to current available price. 3) gas production rates get back on expectations for the field and any concerns around deteriorating flow rates are dispelled, (which to be fair i'm not sure there are - but lets see what they report. Interims showed a fall in production for first time in a long while - pumps blamed but sounds a bit lame). If we get all three in the next year then I think we see 100p per share.

Healthy to maintain a degree of cynicism Nick. GDR for a while has drifted lower on very low volumes. Management recently awarded themselves a block of options and have taken some shares as well recently I think if I remember correctly. However, I'm sure they will want more exposure over time if each market opportunity continues to come in. Personally, i'm a little disappointed that the 3 main executives have not come in for shares with the price down her. They could all easily buy 150k shares each and help soak up whatever stock is available for sale in the background that the market makers know about. But this is only one aspect of the price. Management delivering commercially available and market leading product at good profit margin without further delays will be a strong basis for upward revisions of earnings expectations in the near term due to AIHL and HCV and bring much more significant buying interest. If and when that happens....no more drifting share price. I'm much more in the when it happens camp, but there are plenty who are on the sidelines watching and that includes (as you allude to) industry buyers who could bolt this on with pocket change!

Good to hear Ctw. I admire your confidence....not to say that I'm lacking in confidence that Genedrive team will get the job done on these 4 assays, just that I think there is little wiggle room for more delays in sales ramp. Statement alluded to material ramp in sales in the year to 2022 which is a fair old time away. looking forward to seeing how developments pan out here though, just not sure my short-term tech induced ultra- consumerist need for instant gratification can take it much longer :)

All of the content of the final results well flagged in trading update and subsequent proactive investor interview. Feels like a proper plod but we are getting there. I have few doubts that there will be 4 assays on the market by the end of 2021. Only question market, as I've raised before, is cash. Can DoD and AIHL bring enough cash in to avoid another cash raise in 9 to 12 months. HCV unlikely to contribute meaningfully to cash in that period now which is disappointing. Share price drift though over last year or two has more than priced this in to my mind.

Perfect. Many thanks for highlighting Ctw!

It's been a while since I last checked in here and so, like you ctw, i'm looking forward to the Oct 3rd results (in a way). Had a quick look back at the WHO website to check on status report for progress through the pre-qual process for HCV test. No update since 8th July. I guess if they were struggling already to get the right kind of test cases (low viral load) which Budd spoke about with the trading update then that situation is unlikely to resolve itself quickly. I wonder how many low viral load samples they need to test? Suspect the news on US DoD and Antibiotic induced hearing loss will be positives though in terms of progress when we get the update. Will check back in Oct 3rd!