Member Info for TroytoTiber

This share rarely trades and even more rarely in a block of £20k. As it has been virtually impossible to sell anything even at the bid i'm assuming this is actually a buy order as recorded here on LSE. So why are the shares down 2.35%?

Its an obvious point and sure its already been made but progress must be being achieved with the Framework Agreement and Joint Development Agreement with Power China and China Non Ferrous otherwise why appoint the final consultancy power to get this deal over the line. Suspect we get an announcement on formalising the MOU with Chinese between now and year end then we wait for what will hopefully be a well timed submission of the integrated mine development plan to GoB once the new consultants have finished paving the way for approval. But agree that we have many months of uncertainty ahead still

I’m only interested when Renard returns with news from contacts.

I'm confused also. Many companies are largely owned by IIs and this means nothing in terms of 'fireworks'. Further explanation needed please TradingD!

GEEC management might take the company private at these levels. They can fund expansion from free cashflow and debt (assuming that sales gas rises to near production levels - which it should when the pipeline to Kolkata is in place) so there is no need for access to London's capital. Would also remove an administrative burden. And lets face it no-one seems in the least bit interested in the company or the stock over here. Hardly any shares trade as the Modi family own 2/3rds of the issued shares. So it suits the Modi family for the shares to drift downwards so they can buy outstanding shares at a pittance.

Just an idea as this incessant share price slide continues. All will be revealed soon though I suspect. 1) operational issues deteriorating and flow rates worsening faster than expected. 2) Large shareholder trying to sell their holding - Modi family will buy eventually but only at a knock down price 3) Modi family taking the company private and share price being massaged down to facilitate this.

Let's see which one it is!

Woodford managed to walk onto a few banana skins recently and prior to that he/his investment managers was/were up there as the most revered investors in the UK. Not sure I take much comfort from the institutions here building their stakes therefore. These guys can make howlers just as well as us PIs.

Saying that, i'm still reasonably confident that Cap-xx are inching in the right direction so am holding my position for now.

One of the world's largest producers of synthetic disposable gloves with a large polyethylene business as well. Wonder if they need a oxo-biodegrable solution for these products by any chance?

I should add that we also need more visibility on which countries Genedrive has HCV approval for and what the scale of potential sales are in these markets and how these sales will profile through the near to medium term. 12 market approvals to date is good but we originally had 30 targeted by the end of 2019.

I actually think the company is doing the right thing though in not putting sales targets out there for right now on these individual markets as they will almost certainly be missed and that will impact short-term sentiment even more. We just have to hope that we see clear signs that registrations as a whole pick up again for now. WHO pre-qualification will help with this and the noises from Budd on that were positive I thought.

Key 12 months now for those remaining 18 registrations. And then maybe by 2021 they will be able to talk about sales growth projections with more certainty and we can stop worrying about cash!

thanks for sharing ctw. Its an obvious point but its about uncertainty with GDR (as with many AIM companies). They are not currently providing updates which anchor sales and sales growth projections. As they have only cash therefore to keep them in the game, there is an event horizon out there in the not too distant future beyond which they are in trouble. So investors and potential investors need more certainty on that sales growth profile both for scale and timing. I have absolutely no qualms on scale....their 4 target markets are collectively huge and make the current market cap laughable if that were the only consideration. Its the timing that the issue. Updating us with more delays that are beyond the control of the company increases uncertainty. Increasing uncertainty will continue to hold the share price down. I agree that if they can get to a point in the next 12 months where we get a much cleaner line of sight on sales growth profiles for at least 3 of the 4 products then these shares will fly. Thats why we are invested. The opportunity is really very large. DoD sales and antibiotic induced hearing loss are unlikely to deliver cashflow neutrality on their own by end of 2021 though so it is down to HCV markets to open up in 2020 so that revenues can come through on this to start bringing in excess cash at some point in 2021/22. TB then delivers the huge wave of cash on top of that post 2022. But they cant afford more delays. HCV markets must open up in 2020!

Agreed. A good source of info to have. Watching comments from Renard (and Chinese Whispers) more closely now

Before your post gets removed, do you know Renard? I’m coming to the conclusion t hat I am one of the few who doesn’t have a source who knows there is news about to drop! What definition of ‘about to’ are you using?

I honestly don’t think they care about the day to day movements of the share price. Getting the deal done and value created is focus

From March 29th interim statement announcement (just over only 3 months ago).

"Over the coming months, the GCM team is looking forward to progressing negotiations with a large international coal mining company to partner with the Company in mine development, to work with its partners to finalise the submission to the Government, and then consult with the Government to finalise an agreeable proposition which is amenable to all parties. "

They couldn't have put it any clearer than that! I'm pretty comfortable that the 3 months we have waited already fits within the 'over the coming months' bit of that statement. If we're at the end of the year without any update then there may be cause for a grumble about poor communication. They're not going to give us a line by line account of all dialogue as it happens.

Great to hear Uinsionn! Always good to have new perspectives and insights to this discussion board.

agree with all you’ve written there ctw. We will see this volatility until the commercial evidence base grows for in particular hcv. There is a clear market need and we have a solution. The question remains though does anyone want our solution and gdr have to demonstrate this otherwise the shareprice isn’t going anywhere.

For me a bit more explanation is required around the registration delays. Is this WHO related, is it to do with comments made in the final paragraph on hcv testing funding not being available yet? To have moved from 11 countries to only 12 over the last few weeks is a major slowdown and so I think the company are duty bound to give more info on this otherwise the share price gets hammered, as it has done.

Antibiotics induced hearing loss may be the saviour here though as it looks like it might plug and shortfall in cash by 2021 as hcv timings for ramp up slip.

New tech in medical applications is always slow and bumpy so I’m not too concerned here. Just wish company could communicate a bit more clearly!

in any meaningful size. Just going to have to wear what ever is coming down the pipe in terms of news!

Little flurry of orders today!

Agree Riddler that near cash valuation looks too low but think that clearer evidence of move from cash burn to cash generation is needed before those who are watching on the sidelines get involved. When they do though shares wont be at this level.

There seems to be still a large seller somewhere in the background. Its possible to quite easily buy 100,000 shares which for this share would easily have moved the share price up in the past. Not sure what's going on. It could be that a larger shareholder wants out and the market makers are shifting slowly down to find the clearing price. Alternatively there could be negative operational developments at GEEC. We could do with an update! Company usually doesn't now report until November so things could drift a bit further until then. These guys could definitely improve their game regarding marketing and communicating!

so it looks like i can buy 50k shares at 22p. 5k shares being quoted at 21.85p. Even 1k shares to buy being quoted at 21.85p so your 20.5p purchase is already long gone seemingly!

Yep, agree with all of that as well.

Notice also that Genedrive have posted a Lab manager role on the careers section of their website. Probably cant read much into this except that if management weren't confident of the outlook they would not be hiring.