Member Info for TroytoTiber

The fact that a seller of size appeared at the year end balance sheet date and is clearly still there in the background raises the possibility that they are aware of some disappointing news and want out.

Not put off by my big miss on predictions for sales gas with the interims, I'm going to stick my neck out again. Finals brought forward to may 14th. That's very early so there must be an important message. It's either really not so good or actually really very good. I'm going for the latter. Sign off with GAIL and good commercial test results for shale drill.

Small trades still able to drag the price down. We've only got 20 odd more p until zero!

The price is down 5% after steep recent falls. If there was a seller I should be able to buy in size but I can't. Can't buy or sell any stock without going to negotiated trade. Companies contact email address is crocked as well. Next results are due in July so it's a bit of a wait to find out how the shale test drill holes went and if there is any update on GAIL off take agreement. Maybe we get a trading update b4 then but probably not. 9trn cubic feet of gas in place going for £60m of equity and £60m odd of debt with c10p of cash eps and growing. Unless something operationally has gone badly wrong the shares surely can not remain at these levels for long.

Either gcm were caught napping on getting a mining partner (which I doubt) or it was proving very hard to get a conversation going. I suspect that for many mining companies dropping a shovel into a greenfield development in a politically corrupt and potentially unstable economy is not something they want to do. However the arrival of credible partners for the power generation bit of the puzzle has allowed conversations to begin with a potential mining partner. Likely to be China Energy Investment in my view as this is a tidier arrangement, keeping it all China state owned. Really can't see independent western market listed mining companies being involved. Agree with many of the views here though that if mining partner secured there is very little chance of gob not proceeding. Question then becomes how much of the value of the combined project is allowed to accrue to the minnow gcm. Think I'll take my chances that it will be more than a few 10s of millions! Probably months away from approval though. Fingers crossed for the mining partner announcement in he coming weeks!

Looks like there is plenty of stock around at the moment. Maybe a largish seller or two who'll be driving the share price down until the market clears withe some buying interest. Although having this happen around year end is always a bit unnerving. Someone know somethig......let's see.

All as expected. Good to see more from the dod. Well predicted ctw! It still troubles me that these guys keep finding delays for almost everything they do. However, we have got more details on outlook, 25% growth for the year 2019 and the revenue mix turning away from grant income. Not sure share price moves until clear evidence of commercialisation and ramp up without excuses for delays happens though. More waiting!

More from the dod in these results would be a good result. Agree with you there ctw. I think what I'm really hoping for is comments about how market opportunities are shaping up that are really detailed and tangible. Otherwise we just wait for each set of results and hope. As with so many aim stocks, the ability to communicate well through rns leaves a bit to be desired. Roll on 7am tomorrow!

It would ctw. I'll put my prediction out here though......a few more country registrations announced, no real sales from existing registrations, some more jam tomorrow on NHS stuff and nothing on tb. Followed by a moderately positive outlook about how next few years are exciting times for the company. I'd be delighted to eat my hat on this though!

Anyone reading this board have a few on why there are 1 sell and 1 buy order 10 days apart for exactly thee same number of shares....127. The amount of money is tiny and there are hardly any trades in this stock so the chances of these being unrelated are very small. Why would someone be testing the spread with these very small trades? Be great to hear a view and great to hear from someine on this board.

Environmental Finance reporting that China see clean coal as qualifying under green finance iniative. Hopefully making that clear ahead of some new coal fired power plant announcements. Let's see.

Thought I would take a break for a few weeks from watching share prices. Looking forward to the next update for genedrive although expecting slow and steady progress again. Unfortunately looks like a buy order doesn't move things up like a sell moves price down. I was going to put a small buy order in myself to test your theory ctw but someone beat me to it! Just as well as I own more shares here than any sensible private investor would.

Many thanks ctw. A very merry Christmas to you too.

Many thanks for highlighting ctw. Nice to see some kind of public commitment on the valuation side, albeit not much of one. Also providing an indication that 7m sales forecast is conservative. I think we all probably felt that it was anyway but to state it in an interview is maybe revealing a degree of confidence in an upgrade. Only just noticed the huge mid price trade that went through dated 21.12.18. Roughly 1.75% of the enlarged share capital Base. Have I missed something? By way of follow up to see if this had made it any harder to buy stock now I went to get a quote for 100k shares. (I didn't buy them). Even on a quiet day like today broker happy to fill it at just under 22p. So no change there then! More patience required

Last updates indicated expectations for Gib contract news to land before the end of the year. Suspect that is unlikely now but a little piece of me is irrationally hoping that this drop is possibly trying to shake some stock loose ahead of this news. It was NT for pretty much any size of buy order this morning and plenty of appetite to take sell orders of large size. Not sure if that is still the case now but if it is then it possibly supports my irrational hopes!

Yep. Fair point on the dilution for Booth. That would explain it! Valuation is a bit of challenge. £22m would also be about 3x 2021 sales, which seems acceptable for such a high gross margin business. So maybe that is a reasonable 12 month objective. Think I remember a presentation with hcv being worth £100m per annum so maybe something higher from hcv alone over the longer term. All guess work of course. All I know is that £7m market cap implies a very small probability of success given the size of the market opportunities for genedrive.

Many thanks ctw. I hadn't got around to looking at it yet but I suspect you are right. Would be unusual for that tax break to apply retrospectively. But will try to confirm in the next few days. Decent note from hardman. Not commiting to a valuation though and reading through it, it strikes me that these guys really can not afford to let timings slip any further on delivery of the 3 assays. Net debt piles up into 2021 again on current forecasts. Encouraging to see the institunional backing of course and I hadn't realised that Catherine Booth had reduced her holding already to 3% ish. Helps reduce the overhang. Also a realisation that if converted in full BGT convertible bond pushes them way over their max holding limit of 29.9%. So they will be sellers of a large chunk at some point albeit only when the share price is much higher than where it is now! I think I can live with that! With Odey to potentially still sell outhe completely and booth to sell remaining holding, key question is when to buy a few more.

you think ctw that the 10k blocks that we keep seeing are Odey selling out? If it is pru or amati buying on the other side then I guess it suits them to keep buying them lower and lower if they can. Seemingly no rush to buy as I don't think the company are guiding to anything that transformational happening through 2019.

The world's changed since then Bees. The window for coal is closing fast. His investment may have made sence when he made and maye he is in too deep now. Hope not as I still own a few shares here. If this comes off it will be one of the last greenfield coal developmemts to ever be developed! I'm braced to lose all my money, but maybe this pays out. I wouldn't place too much faith in tang because he is a lawyer or well connected. But i accept that he knows morethan we do. One thing I do know I think is that we are in for massive dilution so forget any valuatons above £3 in my view. There we go.....

Interesting also to note that no shares were issued under the broker option for private investors. As you can buy them more cheaply now in the open market, i'd say that was quite an astute move by the amateurs!