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Good to see ctw! I think i have one final purchase to make at some point in the next few weeks/months. Saying that i hope your purchase here is sage like and that very soon no-one will be able to buy at these low levels again.

It is, just not necessarily from the perspective of getting licence approval to mine Phulbari!

Agreed Lovely. I think the company have stated that they are looking to secure a mining partner before finalising submission of proposal to government. They also suggested that they needed to raise additional finance. This is likely to take a few more weeks or months to line up the remaining pieces to get to the formal submission stage. Positive developments in the meantime will probably stir up some excitement in the share price but as always its the GoB sign off that counts. So I wouldn't say this is make or break week but time is moving on and so questions have to arise eventually over whether a mining partner will be found. A solid investment case with off-takers of production in place should be a fairly easy deal to make.

No reply from WHO.

But it looks like there are 2 lab test options for the pre-qual process. 1) WHO carry out the test in their own lab and pay for this. 2) Applicant arranges for a 3rd party (approved by WHO) lab to run the testing and pays for it themselves. As WHO is capacity constrained option 1) takes longer. So the alternative route that Genedrive is taking (option 2) should be quicker to complete. Once this stage is done the testing results are entered in the final dossier to submit for review to WHO. So we are at least still a few weeks from hearing about the result.

Many thanks ctw. Will share as soon as I have something from them.

This link shows where Genedrive is in the WHO pre-qualification process, (last updated June 25th) http://origin.who.int/diagnostics_laboratory/hcv.pdf . Interesting to see the names of others currently going through the same process. They seem to be lab based tests though and different types of assays such as Abbotts Realtime which specifically targets viral load (although my understanding at this level of detail is very limited!) I have sent an email to WHO to request provision of more detail on the 'alternative laboratory evaluation pathway' status for Genedrive in the hope that this can provide some further insight into likelihood and timing of WHO pre-qual being awarded. As we know, whilst not the be all and end all, WHO pre-qual gives GDR the full market to go for in the target 30 countries. So for me this is important as we can then get a good sense of underlying demand for the unit and assays as both private and public clinics can be targeted.

Remember that an estimated 185m people live with HCV, c140m of these in low and middle income countries. Furthermore it is estimated that 50m people have the virus and are undiagnosed. The WHO want to eradicate HCV by 2030 so there will have to be enough testing to identify all these 50m people as well as testing those diagnosed but maybe without specificity around which strain of the virus. This is a huge market and GDR is close to being a market leader, capable of generating £20m to £30m a year in sales (eventually) from HCV alone. (£20 per assay and 1m to 1.5m tests per year - which could be as little as 10% to 15% market share at the peak size of market).

Senior management just loaded up on another significant lump of options as well. Feels like this is getting close to the inflection point for the share price. Stills needs a couple more positive updates on key development milestones though.

One point also to keep in mind when valuing the potential for the company is that there are £8m of so of convertible loans and some options out there which will dilute the number of shares in issue in the future. Quick rough calculation looks to be an eventual 50m or so of shares if all convertible loans convert to equity, (which they obviously will do if things go well as the conversion prices for the older loan was recently reduced to 28p (for £2m) and 150p (for £6m).

We'll have to wait to hear from the WHO obviously but things are looking good so far. Hopefully more good news to come!

Hope you are right ctw . This year (and last a it happens) are bad years for me. Seems like I'm walking into trouble at every turn. Would be nice to have one of my larger holdings begin to move up on delivery of good news and genuine progress. Last year the update from Genedrive was mid July by the looks of it so yes, any day now. I'm slightly disappointed that we do not have FIND study results as these were due weeks ago. Maybe with the update!

Will probably not start until 2020. Essar have stated that they will drill then and I would guess that the same rigs will be used for both companies and other acreage owners in the raniganj area. Bit of a wait

To my emails for more information on Gib process timeline. To not acknowledge investors who are making inquiries in good faith is a bad sign in my book. If there were some easy work through a for approval of gib contract then I think they would be happy to talk about this. They aren’t though, at leas not to me. Anyone else have any info?

Company last said in update that it was in discussions with potential investors which should conclude over next 6 months I think. That was 2 months ago. Any announcement before then would be a bonus in my book.

High risk high potential reward here and that should come as no surprise to anyone invested in this one. These are the testing moments that we invest in aim stocks for so try and enjoy it. And if you’ve lost your conviction in the opportunity then don’t let loss aversion stop you from selling would be my advice.

Does anyone know roughly how much d2w costs per tonne of plastic. I appreciate that there are some variables which will make for some differences but a range or guide on pricing would be great. Many thanks.

I recall that CEO stated that WHO pre qualification status work should be completed by April this year. So we should be getting this any time now. This is an essential piece to opening up public healthcare systems for HCV test in the 30 countries that GDR are initially focused on. Dont forget also that the FIND study in Cameroon (?) and Georgia is also due to complete this month so we should get an update on that any day now. FIND also has the ability to provide a major support to confidence in private and public healthcare systems in taking up the HCV test. Lets hope both are positive updates.

rough count, looks like c120k buys to 85k sells for May to date and mid-price has fallen 8.5% over same period. Its not a lot of net buying i admit but if this had been the other way around then i suspect price would be lower still. Sells count more than buys still by a long way. market makers will not move this up unless there is much much more buying but why is this? Do they know there is a large seller in the wings with hundreds of thousands of shares that will be drip fed into the market for the next few months? If so, hopefully this is near enough the clearing price required to get this painful process out of the way quickly. Any other explanations?

Have drifted back to checking the price most days again. Bad habit to have as it is too frustrating. Probably need to just check back in November 2020 when we might have 1p of eps on the cards forecast for 2021 and a share price somewhere near my breakeven.

Onwards and upwards.....well, maybe one day soon!

?? . Interesting flurry of trades. Wonder why they all came through on the same day?

A buy order for 20000 shares filled today. Hopefully the discerning buyer will be tempted to buy a few mod over the coming days. Still looks to be plenty of stock around so jump in while stocks last.

continues. Completely wrong predictions. initial shale gas test holes will not be drilled until later this year.....no date given. This is a shame but maybe it really does take many months to get the final approvals to begin drilling. Also on the negative is that forecasts for gas production with the new pumps (that will be fully installed by end of June this year) will be the same as 2018 production, ie around 19.6mcf/d. This needs some clarification. The wells may perform better throughout the year to march 2020 in which case production will rise above 19.6mcf/d but we need more details on well performance.

On the positive side, new pumps will increase production in the FY 2020, sales gas is rising, debt is falling (maybe all paid down in 3 to 4 years time if no investment in further wells occurs) and the company trades on around 9x p&l earnings or around 5x cash earnings.

Undoubtedly things are moving much slower than previous expectations however the fact remains that there is a large pipeline about to be linking raniganj to Kolkata providing a huge market into which to sell their gas. There is also potentially very large quantities of gas to sell if the shale drill holes prove commercially viable extraction. The company has low gearing, is cash generative and is rated as a low growth company. India is on track to meet its 2 degree Celsius plan with gas planned to be a key transition solution as the economy weans itself off coal. ANd the government is highly supportive of domestic gas production. GEEC are also working in cooperation with Essar (who own the other large block on raniganj, which will make it easier to deal with GAIL and could potentially save some operational costs.

I guess we just have to wait. Things will move slowly but the shares still have the potential to be many times the level they are today without becoming more expensive. Clearly there are still risks. Shale may not be commercial and there may be some worrying variability in field flow rates that we are about to find out about, but I suspect these are largely priced in. As long as production and sales continue at the current rate then the debt has gone in 4 years time max and then cash can be distributed if there are no expansion plans. That would mean around maybe £10m £15m dividends a year to shareholders. With a market cap of £60. that would be a 17% to 25% dividend yield as long as current wells continue to produce gas at current rates.

Always good to be cautious Sorros and thanks for the reminder. This news does not equal eu sales but it does represent a change in circumstances. Factoring in only small % of eu market deserves a good mark up in the share price in my view. Company have to improve their marketing and comms though. Even the proactive interview had poor sound quality! Laurier needs to lift his game. The market is increasingly there to take

That recent exchange made me smile so thanks for that TS and BTS. Good to see the share price up as well. Feeling good right now

Certainly disappointing ctw. The constant drip of sells is tedious. s we’ve discussed though several times before, until genedrive deliver unequivocal evidence of progress on which commercial valuation of the hcv opportunity can be done, we’re unlikely to see a big buyer despite the share price implying a very low probability of success.