Member Info for TroytoTiber

Incredibly I've managed to miss all the action this week given distractions elsewhere. When you've been a holder for 10 years you get a bit jaded regularly checking on GDR. Anyway this seems pretty simple to me. Plenty of people here thought this company was worth £200m to £300m before the placing (some thought it was worth more). The extra cash from the placing only makes it more likely that the company is now worth this amount, not less likely! So taking the £200m low end value we now need to divide by a fully diluted 60 m shares (35m in issue currently, 10m in placing and roughly 15m convertible loan stock and outstanding options). this gets me to £3.33 a share - give or take a few pennies. Given the update we got with the placing news does anyone really think the company is worth less now than they thought it was before the placing? CE mark, firm orders update, FDA approval newsflow to come over next few days/weeks which if positive goes a long way to derisking that £3.33 per share valuation. Sure there will be some technical issues to work through very short term but the only thing that has really changed here is that the £200m valuation most people thought was reasonable before is now even more reasonable.

Thanks Technick. definitely an option and thanks for highlighting. ANy view on the immune response test for early infection detection?

Interesting article here:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/us-germ-warfare-lab-creates-test-for-pre-infectious-covid-19-carriers

Couple of observations. 1) US market could be up to 1m tests per day - that's the good bit. 2) This test could detect Covid19 days earlier than leading swab based tests - that's the bad bit.
Emergency FDA approval, if granted, could see rollout of this test from mid May. Lots of questions here but does anyone have any insights on this and likely accuracy of early immune response detection as well as practicalities of mass blood testing, cost etc?

I'm also wondering whether GDR swab test can perform better than other swab tests with greater accuracy on low viral loads associated with earlier infection? This might help negate some of the advantage of this blood test.

Also why did GDR not announce that they are seeking accelerated FDA approval as well as CE mark? CE mark wont cut it in US which seems like an obvious market to target. Any thoughts on all of this would be most welcome for those reading the quieter weekend board. Many thanks in advance

Posting this again. Yes it will. Massively more testing than we are seeing now.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/coronavirus-tests-rockefeller-plan-would-screen-millions-for-covid-19.html

Rockerfeller Foundation very influential. GDR partnered with leading US diagnostics company with additional credibility and endorsement provided with significant US Department of Defence orders. Clear on timelines being talked about that testing ramp up has many more months to run so GDR has not missed the boat. We're all familiar by now with the commentary on the scale of the opportunity but look at the numbers involved.

US facing $300bn to $400bn in economic losses a month from this virus and this will only deepen as confidence drains away the longer we continue without getting to a point where we can reopen large sections of the economy fully again. Article highlights that $100bn funding for increased testing is a price well worth paying to enable the economy to reopen. Multiples of this figure globally.

As long as GDR and Cytiva can develop the test successfully and can negotiate access to government shortlists to supply in multiple countries then GDR could be playing a major role in getting the global economy off its knees as well as saving so many lives. how much is that worth?

Rolled up interest payments on all convertibles look to run until Dec 2021 and Jan 2022.

Apologies, to be clear
$2.5m BGF loan converts at 28.75p maturing on June 30th 2025
$2m and $6m tranches of GHIF loan converts at 28p and 150p respectively maturing Dec 2023

Look like £2.5m loan that matures on 30 June 2025. Deed of Amendment were to extend the maturity of the GHIF Bond by 30 months to December 2023. and exercise prices are:
.

as per the report and accounts for 2019

I posted this a few months ago on convertible loans.

'One point also to keep in mind when valuing the potential for the company is that there are £8m of so of convertible loans and some options out there which will dilute the number of shares in issue in the future. Quick rough calculation looks to be an eventual 50m or so of shares if all convertible loans convert to equity, (which they obviously will do if things go well as the conversion prices for the older loan was recently reduced to 28p (for £2m) and 150p (for £6m).'

They will obviously be converted if the price rises further from here and therefore no debt going forward after that. I suspect that some of the gains from this conversion will be sold back to market but don't see this as an issue unless they all hit at once. Something to keep in mind but certainly not to worry about. Best bit is that conversion removes the requirement to repay the loan.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/coronavirus-tests-rockefeller-plan-would-screen-millions-for-covid-19.html

Rockerfeller Foundation very influential. GDR partnered with leading US diagnostics company with additional credibility and endorsement provided with significant US Department of Defence orders. Clear on timelines being talked about that testing ramp up has many more months to run so GDR has not missed the boat. We're all familiar by now with the commentary on the scale of the opportunity but look at the numbers involved.

US facing $300bn to $400bn in economic losses a month from this virus and this will only deepen as confidence drains away the longer we continue without getting to a point where we can reopen large sections of the economy fully again. Article highlights that $100bn funding for increased testing is a price well worth paying to enable the economy to reopen. Multiples of this figure globally.

As long as GDR and Cytiva can develop the test successfully and can negotiate access to government shortlists to supply in multiple countries then GDR could be playing a major role in getting the global economy off its knees as well as saving so many lives. how much is that worth?

Finncap moving fast. suspect 2 or 3 commercial assets managers been lined up for a while and are now stating their price to take stock in a placing. Things like this often leak ahead of the announcement. Once cash no longer a problem though then share price will re-rate over time as opportunities crystalise into revenues and profits regardless of what happens with Sars Cov 2 test. We will just have to share those profits with a few additional shareholders. Just my take.

When thinking about valuations need to also keep in mind the convertible loans that are in issue at the moment. I posted on this many months ago so cant quite remember the details but I think the total issued number of shares would rise to 50 million if all the convertibles were exercised and converted into equity and the exercise prices were at around 80p and 150p I think, but worth checking that. Still great upside here, you just have to remember to divide the total company value by 50m shares not 35m. market should in theory discount this anyway.

Think that is right Scart. If GDR was currently in a bid situation with a prospective buyer looking to acquire a controlling stake in GDR then I think significant shareholders have to notify through every 1% threshold, but otherwise its 3% threshold on the way down as the last notifiable level as you say.

Spot on Trek. I'd be happy to see GDR raise some cash and remove any lingering doubts around having enough of a window to bring AIHL, HCV and TB fully to market. More cash opens to the way to a >£100m market cap. The 4 product areas that have been the longer term focus for the company are really sound, just need time. Only way company does not raise extra cash now is if they are so confident of getting C19 tests to market with partners prepared to fund this. Its one of those two outcomes and both look good to me.

Whilst the prize is undoubtedly huge, it is still worth tempering expectations for any company responding to this emergency. Just looking at FIND information on the number of organisations responding to the call for molecular diagnostics. 244 developed or in development and possibly still counting. Genedrive is in a strong position for a variety of reasons highlighted regularly on this board but worth keeping in mind the industry response and what that might mean for volumes and pricing outlook regarding GDR Sars Cov 2 tests

https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/

You are right of course Technick. my comment was a casual and slightly flippant response to an earlier post that stated the shares are currently trading near an all time high. Just to confirm, either as Epistem or Genedrive this is not the case.

We have indeed been invested here a long time. Only seems like yesterday that Epistem was going to rid the world of the scourge of undiagnosed TB and the last minute snatching of defeat from the jaws of victory when a deal with Becton Dickinson fell through because management hadn't realised that US power voltage and hertz of their electricity mains is different to the UK and therefore the machines didn't work properly when demo'ed to the BD team. Those were the days. I was happy to invest then so the prospects now are really exciting.

is nowhere near all time highs. When the company was known as Epistem and run by the highly optimistic and overconfident Matthew Walls the share price even started with a 6 handle and i'm not talking pence!

https://www.televisory.com/blogs/-/blogs/malaysian-rubber-glove-industry-impact-of-covid-19

Hopefully Indorama will be supplying so that Lohia family benefit not just through Indorama but through Vincel holding in SYM.

Came across this summary of diagnostics, treatments and vaccines. Not sure how thorough it is though (didn't see NCYT there fir example- did I miss it?) but gives some idea of how well placed GDR are when they get their product to market.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/heres-every-vaccine-and-treatment-development-covid-19-so-far

Punchy comments from UK health minster just now. Commitment to build a significant diagnostics capability in the UK. Large pharma without diagnostic capability to start developing it. Very significant support for UK based small diagnostics companies. Genedrive will not remain independent at this market cap. AstraZeneca for example will be evaluating cost to build versus cost to buy proven capability in Genedrive (and others). Of course flip side is that there will be many new entrants into this market as a result of C19.

Have a look at Genedrive also Sharehuzzarski if you are assessing providers of SARS Cov 2 test kits. A bit behind the competition timeline wise with a test kit 7 weeks away from market but a very strong heritage with point of care device already developed giving much greater options to apply to clinical care settings. Also, the business case is based on bio defence, TB, HCV and AIHL. SARS Cov 2 a very new string to the bow.

I still like SYM for longer term d2p and d2w applications, especially if anti viral properties for d2p are established. additives for materials used for high touch point items in healthcare premises, workplaces and in the home etc globally could amount to a very decent business unit not to mention the opportunities around FDA approval in anti-bacteria and anti-fungal packaging.

The size of GDR as a portfolio holding increased considerably relative to other holdings on March 25th so suspect it is just portfolio management, reducing the weight of GDR in portfolio(s) to better manage risk.