Member Info for Trickymatters

CybAero were already bankrupt before they were able to take up the loan offered by EHGO so the deal didn't progress.
That's why I didn't cover CybAero in my assessment of the impact of EHGO on share prices. So Forkie's 'balance' sharing of a graph showing an sp disappearing with no time line to help anyone understand it in relation to EHGO is not in fact very balanced is it?
Here's the link to explain what happened there- nothing to do with EHGO.
https://news.cision.com/cybaero/r/cybaero-ab--publ--suspends-payments--despite-financing,c2522566
Getting more and more wary of your motives Forkie.

I don't have a sudden interest Woody. I've been invested here for 18 months. I have a consistent interest. Like everyone else I'm disappointed in the sp fall. I'm trying to decide what to do in the light of significant information- EHGO. I already said I don't read this board or any board every day.

Look forward to hearing from you Freddie.

I have been trying to lay out a chart in a sensible way but these message boards don't hold the layout once you press end!

Summary. I'm not going to try another chart don't worry!
In short the best impact within months is Oncology Venture who have 8 bagged in 5 months but they haven't taken up much of the loan and have re-negotiated it entirely.
Cereno Scientific and Mologen have seen increases of about 65% and 80% in a few months though CS saw a sudden dip of over 40% in mid January before rising confidently to where they are now.
Quick Cool is down over 70% but they have become a completely different sort of company distributing their cooling systems instead of just developing them. They will grow and do well over time once the distribution deals materialise as actual sales.
It's hard making investment decisions. Everyone can see that VAL's fortunes have declined badly. We need to ask ourselves why. Is it because the directors are dodgy? Or just because it's hard for pioneering small bio companies in a space where 80% of investment from outside the country has fallen away in two years. Will these things change?
I expect they will at some point but I don't know any more than anyone else in absolute terms.
What I'm not interested in doing is making things up and name calling like a bunch of kids. I've stopped reading this board regularly because it's rare to read anything that's not really aggressive and weird. Quite a lot of bullying against anyone who tries to think things through never mind anyone who might be actually enthusiastic about their investment. And from the same people - no names mentioned Russel Cox -who ramped this share to the high heavens on social media.
I will repeat if you really believe that you are being mislead- why aren't you doing something about it? Go to the FCA with your evidence if you think you have it. I'm not convinced at all. And I'm suspicious of others- Roses, seen you de-ramping lots of shares. Andy- thought you told the world you sold up ages ago? So why are you lot here?

Ah crap. Can't say I didn't try!

Firm SP pre EHGO Now Highest since EHGO Lowest since EHGO
Cereno Scientific- 2.38 SEK Dec 2018 2.84 4.5 Apr 2019 1.5 Jan 2019
Oncology Venture 0.5 SEK Nov 2018 4 (unknown only source for OV was the Annual Report 2018)
Mologen 1.89 Euro Feb 2018 3.26 3.7 Feb 2019 1.89
Quick Cool 15 SEK June 18 3.7 21.54 Sept 18 2.55 Mar 8th 2019

Once more with a bit more effort!

Sorry people- my chart hasn't stayed in the columns. Each share price corresponds one stage at a time
1. Pre EHGO SP 2.SP Now 3. Highest SP since EHGO 4. Lowest SP since EHGO

Hope you can make sense of it!

As promised I've looked at the fortunes of all the companies I found who have engaged with EHGO SF. The terms of the loan seem to be the same as VAL's in each case. They say costing 5-7% of the value of the loan dependent on whether they use all the warrants or not.
Cereno Scientific have re-paid the loan after signing an agreement with Emerit Bio AB to buy their compound for use in their own pipeline. Oncology Venture did not take up the wider agreement at all - they have re-negotiated it so that they have full control over when and if to access the funding. At the moment they have issued a preferential rights issue instead. All this following a decision to move on a license agreement with Novartis for a drug for renal cancer. It does seem that with several of the firms they deal with the fortunes of these firms have drastically improved following engagement with EHGO. Quick Cool for example have taken distribution deals with the UK, Ireland, Portugal and Spain recently after a change of focus from a development company to one which produces and distributes.
Onto share prices:
Firm pre EHGO Now Highest since EHGO Lowest since EHGO
Cereno Scientific- 2.38 SEK Dec 2018 2.84 4.5 Apr 2019 1.5 Jan 2019
Oncology Venture 0.5 SEK Nov 2018 4 (unknown only source for OV was the Annual Report 2018)
Mologen 1.89 Euro Feb 2018 3.26 3.7 Feb 2019 1.89
Quick Cool 15 SEK June 18 3.7 21.54 Sept 18 2.55 Mar 8th 2019

So overall it looks as if the money has provided these firms with the space to take some great leaps forward. Quick Cool have completely re-focused and taken on a much bigger job so have more debt than before. Interestingly it looks as if the oncology firms seem to be partnering and capitalising on deals that had lain dormant. Whether that's about the freedom of finances or some of the other support that venture capitalists can bring to do the table- networks etc- we don't know.

They are called EHGO SF. I will do that- not today I need to do some other work! Not easy because they aren't all listed on big stock markets. The point I'm making is that they invest in company's who need help but who they see as having potential. Your assessments suffer from what is called 'confirmation bias'. You aren't telling us anything at all- just some insinuations.
If you think they're all crooks and fraudsters why don't you complain to the regulators instead of spouting off here? You have no evidence and you're not offering any kind of real informed opinion yet you are being potentially libellous. If you're right- go to the FCA. What's stopping you?

Of course Freddie. My investment too. As you can see I've decided to hold for now. I'm not ruling out an additional investment depending on news. Good luck whatever you decide everyone. Not an easy decision. I don't think investing is easy any more full stop. Brexit has seen some big outflows from our markets. Can't have been helpful for companies like VAL in this environment.

I've spent the morning having a look at other investments undertaken by EHGO SF. A couple of posters have implied there's a poor track record of investments being used to 'strip assets' ya di ya. I think that's completely unfair. I will share what I've found in detail- which none of these critical posters have done- just a lot of unsourced allegations. Please don't point me in the direction of a tacky free share magazine previously involved in massively ramping this share.
For anyone who hasn't noticed - newsflash VAL is already in a desperate situation! Our sp has collapsed a long time before EHGO came along. Because we haven't got any money to progress the drug trials which are obviously promising or none of us would still be here would we? Some of these extremely critical posters aren't invested. When people spend time and effort de-ramping away it's usually because they are very interested in a share and hope to come back in when they have helped to reduce confidence to the lowest degree.
So who have EHGO SF invested in? Oncology Venture took out a loan agreement in November 2018. They've since got back on their feet, directors are buying their own shares and they've signed an agreement to develop their cancer drugs with partners (3rd April, 2019).
Cereno (who some-one has strongly suggested had a fall after EHGO investment) have in fact repaid the last loan mid March 19, and signed an agreement with Emerit Bio AB to buy their compound to add to their pipeline for drugs to combat thrombosis. Mologen (again wrongly associated with a negative EHGO impact) were absolutely on their last legs in Feb 2018 - so far they are still in the game following the EHGO investment.
So what's so awful about the loan? When you get a loan you pay a fee don't you? The structuring fee is £278K. That's either a very high 27% against a million or a reasonable 3.9% against 7 million which is available if we want it. Obviously they are banking on an increase in the share value to make serious money. But yes, if we turn down the arrangement for the larger fund against warrants etc at the AGM, then it gets to be a horrible deal for us with a penalty fee and compensation for any falling sp. In my view we're looking at game over if we turn down the wider deal anyway- this is where we are with no funding to move on our products.
If the share price rises by the time the letter of intent gets signed they will of course have to pay more for it- 120% of the lowest bid price in the 15 days before closing.
If the stock value declines the value of the loan will be reduced accordingly- nothing Machiavellian about that I'm guessing? So my take at this point with the information I've considered is- yes, we've taken a desperate option from the point of view of the penalty clause and that there will be some share dilution- we don't know how much. But lots of posters here have wrongly assumed that EHGO SF aren't able to add value- they have helped more than not.

I've been feeling queasy about VAL for ages and like most people I'm badly down on my initial investment. I've resisted topping up to average down.

I've been queasy because I don't think George sounds credible anymore- distrust has set in alongside the falling sp; and for a long time we've had empty RNS' not saying anything of value or repeating information we've had- always as an obvious precursor to another share issue. VAL 401 was supposed to be independently peer reviewed and then it turned out the reviewer might not have been as independent as we might expect. We've heard about the phantom 'imminent deals' for 401 so often we can't even be bothered to laugh about it.

So when this RNS came out alongside the sp fall I thought this is the time to put it all in a letter of complaint to the FCA.
When I had a closer look at the deal what I see is £6million on the table, enough to fund 201 to the next stage and get 301 going. What have we given up? A 10% share dilution? Why has our sp reached this low baseline? It might be because we've all been conned and the drugs are a dud. It might be because the market can see that we've stalled on activity because we've had no money so we can't progress to sell on the drugs because we can't do more substantial testing and scrutiny which will be necessary for any serious big pharma interest.
So now we do have some money.
I had a look at EHGOSF and their advisers Alpha Blue (venture capitalists). They won't invest in something that can't make money. If we default on the agreement we have to pay back most of the initial loan obviously. But the stuff they invest in looks OK- innovative companies across engineering and health care that they see as having high growth potential.

Once companies are getting off the ground they're as likely to move on as stay- with no adverse effect on the company.
It's a while since I've seen anything VAL has done get covered by the Morning Star.

I thought it was interesting that we were getting quite a lot of buyers today- more than sellers. Some decent medium sized investments.

I'm not necessarily convinced and I might still write that letter to the FCA.
Tell me why I'm wrong.
Hope no-one's feeling to crap to enjoy the weekend!

I wonder who the major food producer is?

Good read- thanks for sharing Chrisatrdg.
It's quite technical isn't it? I would summarise my understanding as a conclusion that VAL 401 shows likely anti-cancer activity. They compare VAL 401 to other meta-studies which used unformulated risperidone but which didn't show conclusive results. They go onto postulate why this might be (for example better lymphatic receptivity and distribution amongst other factors because of the effects of the reformulation especially the impact of other ingredients they have added). They categorise the differences in methods and patient profiles between their work and other similar studies and go on to position VAL 401 for future trials and start to frame the context for such trials (recommended dosages).
I think it's encouraging assuming VAL can keep themselves out of administration long enough to get next phase funding. I suspect Brexit won't be helping any small firms with big ambitions to attract international partners at this moment in time. There are some hopeful indicators in the macro-environment I guess. A lot of investors have already shared some of the latest spate of buyouts of micro firms by big pharma. US firms especially have the money to do this right now and many will be under pressure to keep their pipeline stacked with new innovative products as their cash cow patents run out. If Trump backs off a trade war with China that could help.
Not really holding my breath but I will buy in again to reduce my average if anything really tangible happens.

Why do they imagine that a challenge to the Storuman authorities decision will get a change of heart? It hasn't so far. Either they move the storage facility or this ain't gonna happen.

I strongly suspect that this is just a shell company tbh. They are open and clear about their complacency as if that should satisfy shareholders. Quite bizarre. We should just report them to the FCA. Might have a chance of getting some of our money back.

a planned acquisition of Endocyte to accelerate the development of innovative radiogland technology for treating cancer.

The deal has to be accepted by both company shareholders. They've offered 24 dollars per share. They will progress phase 3 trials for prostate cancer alongside potential for other cancer therapies.

So what do we think the story is with the share price going down when there's 10 x as many buys than sells today? One of you experienced traders will know surely?

Not to mention the Russian hacking scandal which has also seen reports this week from GCHQ that 50% of big companies have been hacked by Russian state sponsored actors. There's now a serious co-ordinated effort to prevent hacking. All our cybersecurity firms are going to have to come into play. The only thing holding ECSC back is the same thing holding every cybersecurity firm. Business is loathe to invest unless it has to. That time is now.

compliant but most now have some level of consultancy support arranged. It won't be long before all 50 ECSC new managed services contracts convert to full cover IMHO. At 0.9 million a shot they'll soon be turning a great profit.