Member Info for Trickymatters

MB and Vascular, I know. It's amazing really. This is the beginning of the approach to mass testing actually underway with an exercise for the whole of Redcar using an antigen lft.
Only 2 UK firms who have a simple lft on the way, although AVCTA have not actually shown anybody any results yet. I am pretty sure we are ahead of the pack.
Can't believe they are dropping the sp when this is going on. I suppose we should all grab the chance to buy but it feels counterintuitive. I don't understand how the price is falling when there are so many more buys than sells.

This thread should be 'Redcar test' really. Ekxoc, yes that's what I thought. They are trying out the exercise of mass testing. They aim to find asymptomatic cases and isolate them. So if it works they can go large everywhere where there are outbreaks. So 26 million people are in tier 2/3 restrictions now so do the maths. Bear in mind the government are still resisting lockdowns.
Doesn't matter who is in use for the Redcar test. If it works they need more than the 2 million cheap tests they have just imported.
This Redcar mass test will be done by 3rd December. Mologic and ODX could be on track by then. ODX will have to turn over the rest of their capacity for this. They will have to find some more tbh.

Slovakia are testing the whole population over 10 years old. It will be interesting to see whether they can successfully use the data to stop the virus. I bet they do. If they know exactly where it is and they support those who have it to isolate, job done. Their population is only 4 million. So will be a bigger challenge for us. Still, the trend is starting.

They have sold their investment arm to Fidelity, that's why they are selling. Cashing in twice. They will be out by Monday I am guessing? Then we should bounce. We've had at least 2:1 buys to sells since Wednesday.

It didn't say in the report did it? Would be good if we could track it down- the Redcar mass test. Was it a trial for the test or a trial for the value and deliverability of mass testing? Or both?
So if it's about exploring the value of mass testing (which is how I read it- finding out if we can use fast turnaround data to interrupt/suppress the virus), then it doesn't matter if it's ours or a crap test from China or wherever.

Cor blimey! Yoyo and Giantsquid, this is getting quite exciting! Gla all investors.

Thx Giantsquid. Lovely succinct summary of the projected market cap after the Carlsberg JV is signed off. Very resonant of Nils Pratley's tip in the Guardian although you have unpacked your assumptions more transparently.
Hey Fairdealer, newsflash- all investing is speculative activity! The point is whether the speculation is rational. The market hasn't priced in the JV. The uncertainty of the virus is making us all more anxious than usual. It's waiting till it's signed off. When the announcement was first made the immediate sp response has shown us exactly what the market will do. The only risk is will it go ahead. We've been told by Carlsberg that it will go ahead. No brainer.

We know that next week will see anything from 50- 100% uplift on this share price. So a bit of mystery yes. But not like the convoluted, desperate deramping going on here with Supercharger's delusional nonsense. Mate. It's not going to 30p. Buy in now. This is a superb price. I might buy some more after my walk so knowing my luck the price will be up a bit by then, lol. The time is right now.
No point trying to manipulate a lower sp. Investors see you coming. And it must be humiliating for you? Quite hard to watch.
Just buy back in and be done with it. I promise not to laugh about it ;)

Hmmm yeah. Gifts to charity. Like a 'trust fund' for family members kind of charity? Seem to be a lot of those.

He's down to 6.3% on the register so about 10 million. But as you have noted he has been known to advise late. Against the rules of course. So he could easily be down much more now. I think he wants out and mms sell his shares into bad news so he gets rid of them but at a lower price.
There was no need for the drop yesterday. It was all known news. No-one expected a profit just yet. And there were double buys to sells and no real recovery. Today value of buys to sells was about 300%. Getting fed up of this manipulation.

Probably more that he's already 6 bagged. Rich people like to cash in too hey? If he's going for early retirement, time to move it into bonds or free it up for some property bargains after March next year. Very, very annoying however.

NHS have written to public health directors asking them to commit. Some resistance atm by the sounds of it. One month for government to get everyone on board! Have a read. Looks like Colin King is deadly serious when he says there's an ever increasing commitment to mass testing using lateral flow tests.

My big takeaways:
1. Ramping up capacity each month to reach 2 million per week by April 2021 (totaling 22.8 million by end of April). CK says this is needed to meet expressed demand from customers and 'stakeholders '.
2. Visitect antibody tests are in the market now, EU approval underway and other healthcare settings in UK, sales update Nov 20th. US market is a target. FDA approval application underway.
3. ABC 19 test can be sold in export markets and health care settings now. Outside of government sales the pricing policy will be linked to retail prices as part of the agreed profit share between RTCconsortium companies.
4. The biggest market share for ODX is firmly expected to be the antigen lft Mologic test. It will be CE marked as soon as the current evaluation and verification is completed, expected in the next couple of weeks. After CE marking ODX will carry out the tech transfer and start production. Ideally in time for Christmas and commercially available by Christmas or the new year. Overwhelming demand all over the world.
5. Antibody tests will be needed to support a planned programme for mass vaccination to assess and check it's impact in CK's view, from discussion with the market.
6. Mass antigen lfts are now seen here and internationally as the key to our way forward in living with the virus in all kinds of professional and social spaces.
And cd4 and food allergies tests are selling and expected to do well over the next 6 months.
In short 39 million tests, by June 2021 ( assumed continuing production at 8 million a month for another 2 months). Revenue depends on average price. Variable from maybe £1.70 for RTC limited to government order (900k) to commercial and export sales price linked for everything else.

SNG has dropped by 5.5%. They have had 3:1 sells to buys. ODX have had 2:1 buys to sells.
How do they get away with this?

£130k buys yesterday and no change to the share price. Might raise a query with the FCA.

Well. I am almost stuck for words. Sigh.
I guess we will start to crawl back towards the 90s this afternoon and hopefully a nice bounce back tomorrow once Colin King says out loud what we have all read in today's RNS. Yes. We are CE marking Mologic's 10 minutes, lateral flow antigen test which has attracted an awful lot of interest in the global pandemic. Yes, aiming for tech transfer asap in the coming weeks with commercialisation before Christmas. Yes, ramping up capacity beyond 2 million a month for next year. Yes, ODX is changing it's name to Santa Claus. I mean- no- I mean we are saving Christmas but we are still Omega Diagnostics!
Today will be over soon. MMs taking advantage of a few early sells. Twice as many buys as sells. Oh dear, oh dear.

I'll join in your gentleman's agreement even though I'm no gentleman. Not much of a lady either -lol. But I am a woman.
So, Tuesday 3rd November, 70p.
Market is sad and gloomy today because of lockdown fears. I am guessing our government will strive hard against that. They don't want a second lockdown so they will try and pull something else out of the bag to get on top of the virus. I think they will follow through on an announcement about the plan for mass testing to start from the end of October- 500,000 a day was the target by then, ramping up to a potential 1 million a day by Christmas.
They have to do something to address confidence and to protect those at risk effectively. Or we'll have to throw away the book altogether at how the world manages debt! Otherwise this situation is totally unsustainable.

Apparently 'there are always winners in every economic crisis. Omega Diagnostics are one of those winners'. I'll take that and share it with fellow investors ;)

ODX have arranged an investor presentation because they have some news that they believe will be of interest to shareholders. They are not spending time and money preparing to update investors on nothing of very much interest. The investors presentation in the Summer introduced us to Mologic's new generation, 10 minutes antigen test for the first time, clarifying Omega's role in CE marking and manufacturing that product and giving an expectation of £5.00 per test.
At the early October presentation we were advised that the Mologic antigen test which we knew was in Heathrow trials was progressing to second stage trials with an expectation of those trials concluding in time for 'an early Christmas present '. If our tests are used at Heathrow and in other commercial settings they will be retailing for between £16 and £40.00. ODX margin will be going up.
We have nothing to worry about. Closer to market with new generation tests than any other listed company- easily accessible for retail investors. Looking forward to tomorrow's presentation.

Thanks Hoolicat, proper scientific explanation. I think the BBC will gradually get there. We do need a few more scientists working in journalism imho. I have an arts/management background and I feel like I have a better handle than most of them. They just don't even keep up to date so they have no confidence to properly interrogate or interpret the debate.
Hoolicat, would you consider calling into one of the weekend shows - Question Time or something?