Member Info for TrekMadone

“* Thermo Fisher has committed to continuing to supply the UK with testing kits to test for the presence of the coronavirus virus and is working to scale up manufacturing at its existing UK sites”

https://www.marketscreener.com/THERMO-FISHER-SCIENTIFIC-14623/news/Thermo-Fisher-Scientific-Industry-responds-to-call-to-arms-to-build-British-diagnostics-industry-a-30389838/

Look what happened to biocept when they announced they were doing Cv19 testing using TF kit, up 25%

“Shares of Biocept Inc., which provides liquid biopsy tests for cancer patients, rose 12% to 40 cents after hours as the company said it will conduct Covid-19 testing.

Biocept said it has verified a molecular diagnostic test, and plans to begin accepting physician-ordered testing requests for processing beginning April 15.

Biocept's lab will use Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.'s TaqPath platform and kit.“

https://www.marketscreener.com/BIOCEPT-INC-44644720/news/Biocept-Shares-Up-on-Planned-Start-of-Covid-19-Testing-30394798/

So why wouldn’t the same happen here doing NCYT and PHE tests/production?

You have to join the dots...

“In addition to supporting manufacturing efforts, the Company is also in the process of expanding its laboratory capabilities to support the NHS in COVID-19 laboratory service testing. This is developing quickly, and the Company will update the market as and when these capabilities are in place and set to be utilised.

Expanding into another diagnostic test aligns with Yourgene's strategy to expand the Company's product portfolio and bring new products to market.”

https://www.marketscreener.com/YOURGENE-HEALTH-PLC-16860916/news/Yourgene-Health-25-March-2020-Contract-manufacturing-agreement-for-COVID-19-diagnostic-test--30224103/

And who would be second/third in the queue? TF...

I expect them to increase their position here after results, as posted before, ops align and YGEN despite its ‘tidler’ size offers a route to market (s) which in the case of France, North Africa etc is valuable to TF not to mention options of cost savings on facilities and expansion on distribution.

Trek

Setting a high SP prevents stock being loaned. But a lot of folk have to do it and you have to assume there is a leveraged market for the shares. Even then an institution can agree to their stock being loaned for short selling.

Trek

£1

Been reading up on TF, they have made accretive acquisitions in the past. They have cash and low leverage, also money is cheap atm. Given the bravado to UK plc about being able to deliver alone the 100k tests I just wonder if they may increase their holding here to get a seat or takeover. There are so many synergies between the two albeit on a different scale both operationally and geographically. Their last acquisition was viewed very favourably by the market. Obviously if they were to move it would be after the finals but they may not wait for the CE approval as that would be a bau transferral. Obviously all just conjecture on my part.

“Qiagen N.V. U.S. shares were up 14%, to $41.24, in early trading.

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. said it would acquire Qiagen, a provider of molecular diagnostics and sample preparation technologies, for EUR39 ($43.38). Thermo Fisher shares were up 4%, to $316.35.

The transaction values Netherlands-based Qiagen at about $11.5 billion at current exchange rates, which includes the assumption of about $1.4 billion of net debt, Thermo Fisher said.

Qiagen generated 2019 revenue of $1.53 billion, Thermo Fisher said.”

https://www.marketscreener.com/QIAGEN-N-V-40135659/news/Qiagen-N-Thermo-Fisher-Up-After-Acquisition-Deal-30101982/

Trek

My first pòst here. Not really much to contribute ahead of finals. I manage to get in at 5.97 only a modest stake. Keeping some powder dry. I have been impressed at how they have so quickly taken out the fat here, albeit there was plenty but it’s not easy to do that and motivate the team. The share scheme will defo help. Anyways deepjoy, I have read your posts recently as part of m6 research which mostly included going through the accounts and RNS’s. It’s nice to have some good balanced posts rather than the £1, boom, you wouldn’t wanna be, buys as sells brigade! The same plagues the YGEN board where I have a substantial holding and shared research and views are quickly lost but hey it’s democracy! Chin up and keep posting! Atb

Trek

Should have said ‘trade exclusively to charts’ apologies.

Trek

A close above 17.5p breaks the resistance. A close above 19p would be an exceptional sign that the breakout has begun. Sure these are technicals which until we get results may well play out. Whilst I do not trade to charts I strongly believe that PI’s should have a basic understanding and they should formulate part of their investment decision. I bought ORPH this week just a small stake and by using the charts and a bit of patience got in sub 6p. Buying here sub 18p has been excellent for those that have, both the 25 and 50 day MA’s are well above the 200 day having crossed in November. Next resistance is now at 20.6 with news to come. From a charting perspective this is as good as it gets. From fundamentals the case is outstanding and we are soon going to be hit with slots of news! All imo.

https://www.marketscreener.com/YOURGENE-HEALTH-PLC-16860916/charts/

https://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/charts/?epic=YGEN&compareTo1=&compareTo2=&period=YEAR1&type=2&movingAverage%5B%5D=25&movingAverage%5B%5D=50&movingAverage%5B%5D=200&draw=

Hope the charts load ok.

Trek

That 13516 trade at 12:40 was a buy, it was yet another top up from me! Most of my trades here have shown as sells due to spread and the LSE algorithm inaccuracy.

Trek

Me to added more at 35.44 then it dips! But hey that’s the point of averaging in! News has to be next week. Hope the extra 3 week lockdown is priced in and the markets are on an up on Tuesday. Trump said Easter for the US, if planes start flying again we’ll be back to 40p with our update imo.

I know I want more but I have adjusted my aspirations now so I can hopefully be surprised to the upside! Still got a nice new estate car in mind of course!

Trek

True, BTC likes bank holidays! We have also learnt that it follows the market and likes QE and stimulus so with the run up to halving we should be due a rerate on steroids! We know how quickly this can leap especially after a run of people’s heads being down. On your marks....!

Trek

£1

This has nothing in the price yesterday for the NCYT contract. Perversely it’s good as we shouldn’t get spiked and a big pull back. YGEN has consolidated after the placing and is cashed up to move forward on news. We are due our finals by the end of the month so now are in a close period. There will be an update soon and I suspect we may even see some director buying after the finals. I have been in these situations many time before and have often been ahead of the curve and given up and sold only to scramble back in an pay herd prices!

Here is the list of major shareholders, pretty impressive.
https://www.marketscreener.com/YOURGENE-HEALTH-PLC-16860916/company/

Here’s the chart, all indicators bullish to 20p that will change to the upside significantly when we get through 20p
https://www.marketscreener.com/YOURGENE-HEALTH-PLC-16860916/company/

Note the yoy sales deltas’ 56, 40 and 20% ish. Once the market sees the results and gets the outlook then we will rerate on evidence not hype or trading pressure. Then the 17.5 resistance will break. However, with a forward looking market it should go in advance of the results. Obviously my take but DYOR rather than just relying on boom, 50p next week etc. Numbers will out, sp will follow.

Trek

True, that’s me out bar 5k. GLA, what a ride!

Trek

News will come, this imo is a buying opportunity. We had not had any TR1’s so I suspect that we have just had trading volume. BGF who recently increased their stake here are clearly not selling. Some smaller ii’s could have taken some profit but again no TR1. Looks like they are happy to hold.

I note this in the RNS (below) and it offers an amazing B2B opportunity for transfer of NCYT test kits and testing. I can see why NCTY tied us in. The CE registration may be delayed for obvious reasons but we have plenty of revenue hitting us right now and much much more to come...

· The Company estimates an immediate EBITDA uplift in first year of c.£0.5m from internalising distributor margins

· NIPT customers in France are mainly large private laboratory networks which have nationwide coverage and better access to new high growth markets in the French-speaking Africa and Middle East regions

· Integrates the NIPT commercial channel in France with the Company's own direct channel that was acquired through the Elucigene acquisition in April 2019, allowing further range-selling opportunities including further uptake of the reproductive health product portfolio, across public and private health networks.

Trek

And who would have thought that Bill Gates would be spending $7bn building 7 factories to produce 7 Covid drugs in advance so when the trials (Forbes) are finished he can hit the ground running with any successful drugs and save the world and if not he’ll write the unsuccessful ones off! If this (sng001) is a success mark my words Bill Gates will buy us or sign us or at least go against big Pharma to make it happen. All imo before I have been drinking but nothing is off limits anymore!

Trek

Sleep apnea, I mean insomnia, come on Trek wake up! Been a long day...lol!

Trek

You can buy across markets with any decent account nowadays, you can trade NASDAQ on ii, it gives you a price for shares with ADR’s, America depository receipts, and the exchange rate but you can also open up an account overseas and trade from here direct if you have a linked bank account, sleep apnea and are good at doing tax returns!

What a rise here today! Congrats all longs! There’s more to come imo as this volume ahead of additional oversubscribed listing is significant. The bulls have it again!

Trek

It should but RRE should be worth more than their cash and HUR should be valued at multiples of their revenues and SAVP have pulled off massive deals and the sp drops. You only get asset valuations in takeover situations. E&P sp’s are more trading based which is open to manipulation rather than asset/cash based. It’s why I now look back at what value the sp was for each milestone and attribute the same principle going forward and discount it. Trust me boom, I prefer your version but then is that why brokers notes are seldom reached. Either way for the sp it’s north of here and there aren’t many shares you can say that about with any degree of surety. all imo. Atb.

Trek

“Trek, what price you are looking on Chinook-1 success ?“

Hi boom, assume a shtty market and gas at 1.8.

15p for where we were post results and funding
8p for coho
12p for casca
= our 35p

+6p for Casca if outstanding tests
+4p for Coho tie back
+2p for chinoook spud
+8p for coho producing
+4p for casca tie back

Gives us 59p

Assume chinook is as good as casca and that’s another 18p so

77p....

All pretty crap and fag packet stuff but if the market changes and poo/gas go up and there is a macro boost then you can times this imo worse case by 2 or 3 times. I expected £1 by time coho was tied in so I have tempered my views considerably but in this market even 77p from here with pretty much all risk to the upside is not bad.

Trek

Well I’ve added today. I’m about a confident as possible with this being the right call. I have looked in depth into the financials, they have cash have taken out slack but still have headroom to do other things. For me the webinar was just a tick in the contingency planning box same as I said the most recent ppt was that was loaded ahead of the results (see my earlier posts). These are the things you have to evidence before you do deals and YGEN are making all the right noises. A simple decision from here as I think it’s much more likely to go up and recoup some apparent SP lag than it is to go down. I am not expecting huge leaps without numbers to back it up, we are due numbers soon and it doesn’t take much of a shift in the ebit number to translate in a big shift in sp, that’s because the capex is there and the revenues and profit are to the upside. Pay costs will of course be higher and I expect they are flexing overtime which is great coz you can turn that off should the need arise. Imo YGEN are being overlooked atm as they are not as sexy but a darn site ‘safer’ and I think 25p will come pretty quickly, maybe more but even 25p is decent upside from here. Note, I would say that as I now have for me a significant stake here. Atb

Trek

Imo you have picked a steady horse, remember PHE is finalising it’s 2 min diy test, I wish I could find the link again it’s NOT the Abbott test. Anyways YGEN was ebit positive before the NCYT/PHE work, see my earlier posts on financials. They still had growth headroom from being ahead of the curve, this has been filled now and no doubt they are using overtime as well. Cambridge will not be able to cope with the volumes. Remember it’s not just one test and done. Expect the sites to be segmented either geographical testing or testing by role. E.g NHS, services etc

Trek

Dow futures up another 900pts! I don’t think we’ll see RNS here Thursday, obviously I could be wrong, but we know Tuesday /Thursday’s are favoured. I would be tempted to sit on it the w/e and see how things are. Sure they have to release market sensitive info but there are ways around that and no news here is good news. Maunday thursday RNS is usually for the basket cases!

I am hoping to sell out some other stuff and add in here even more! 25% below the last raise, fully funded, route to market etc is an amazing value proposition even if we just get back to 40p which I am sure we will short term.

Trek