Member Info for TrekMadone

Henners007 “It takes years to get to that stage." Yes, precisely and Synairgen have been working on this for almost 10 years. No one else is going to be able to shoe horn this in without official clinical trials. Notwithstanding current predicament.”

That’s is my point so what is ‘The Star’ on about, posted by xyz, and what has Dr Fish been doing for 30 years and not registered a proper trial like SNG did for p2 copd/asthma. Someone has articulated the difference in interferon b and A which is helpful and I get China are a law unto their own and may be using interferon A but Canada? Surely they know better, it reeks of bandwagon journalism, well at least I hope!

Trek

My understanding is we do not have a patent on interferon. We have a patent for use of interferon as an ingredient in SNG001. Interferon is not necessarily our value point. The value point comes from the clinical need to rapidly deployed a clinically proven drug containing interferon by inhaled means. It takes years to get to that stage. Until I read ‘the star’ article I was of the view that you just couldn’t pump something into patients on mass without going through proper trials. What has Fish been doing for thirty years and why hadn’t they registered clinical trials in China. Not a deramp as this is my biggest holding atm by a long way. Just not clear on the angle this is taking. Views..?

Trek

I have emailed but don’t have a Twitter thingymajig can someone please tweet to offer Boris SNG001. Thanks

Trek

Oil down 8% on Russia/Saudi impasse, cable taking hammering, Dow gone ballistic, FTSE is international which should cushion it but really I couldn’t care less we’ve prayed for Boris and all affected by this virus tonight and for those helping on the frontline. Not always been a fan but we want him through this, GB Carrie as well poor girl hope someone is able to comfort her.

Trek

OT, well, I guess but AZN will be looking in....

GSK and Vir Biotechnology enter collaboration to find coronavirus solutions



· Companies will combine their unique scientific and technical expertise to combat COVID-19 and potential future coronavirus outbreaks

· Promising antibody candidates for SARS-CoV-2 to be accelerated into phase 2 clinical trials within the next three to five months

· GSK to make equity investment of $250 million in Vir

Etc

Trek

Indeed fundamentals are sound, started this half with £4.1m in cash, primary expense was acquisition of Elucigene which is now accretive and adding to the bottom line. Admin expenses have been synergised. Profit increased 141% to £4.1m, that’s cash! They are confident of hitting £17m in revenues year end. I maintain that they still had enough head room in the system to scale up virtually capex free to take on PHE and NCYT, that’s a result of cost savings and smarter working. We have £17m of revenue + two other work streams, sure they won’t be in this year’s numbers but they will be in the outlook. Remember YGEN hit their ebit and loss per share now evens. This is going one way. At the end of the day ideas are great but it’s delivery and numbers that drive the sp longer term. And we have a seller, for whatever reason, probably balancing books at end of tax year for losses elsewhere, given up on equities who knows but what an opportunity for us nimble PI’s that can just built a holding here over time! And over 7m traded today! Not long now then I reckon a 5p step up! All imo with the kitchen sink thrown in as well!

Trek

That’s another 20292 from me. When the business is sound buy against the seller. I bought VRS at 13p when Miton was selling, PI’s just kept piling in then boom! It went straight to 30p and then on from there. Imo same gonna happen here.

Trek

The market tends to react positively to this. It removes uncertainty. I attended the one for HICL and the shares even in a large Co got a decent lift afterwards. They were talking a 20% revenue impact in just the one area and still got a lift coz uncertainty was over. I expect the same here.

Trek

And don’t forget with the world increasing spending on health and LID offering a superior product that saves costs over competitors, politically do you think that spending will be pulled back right after cv19? That would be electoral suicide, na vfm and consolidation will be the order of the day and lid will be bought. All imo.

Trek

News Tuesday or Thursday or Tuesday or Thursday. Easter in the way either way volumes gonna pick up in expectation. I added another 15k today. Got a lot of investments atm mostly small/micro cap and my plan is to switch them to Pharma and utilities as they are all in the money. Just gonna keep TXP, DCTA and ARB and sleep easily! Gone from a pf 30% down to 60% up what a ride! But I’d rather just be watching txp steadily rise and not trading every day!

Boom time soon me thinks, gas futures up again today.

Trek

Covid-19 has changed the landscape. Better move sooner imo rather than later. They need to be tied legally and financially. Better get a foot in now with more to come before Trump and Boris (I hope he’s well) start to make China pay. That first line would be no new trade and a people’s don’t buy Chinese revolt. It’s pretty odds on something left field will happen, I would be amazed if the RoW just took it on the chin. I just hope it all stays reasonable and fizzles out quickly. It’s just us poor PI’s get caught in the crossfire. I have a significant investment in TXP, and absolute gem, took me an age to find and you end up going back to square one in a blink similar to here.

Trek

Note NR has cited that the sp is not at a level that would deem the Chinese investment acceptable, or words to that effect. Tagged on at the end of the Lanstead explanation! Tsk tsk! They could over pay, there are other options to the jv, financing production, buying shares later etc. Looks like we have to wait or is it more than that. NR can read the landscape as well. I am a holder here but all looks curios.

Trek

There are sales to RoW but less than main markets US, China and UK.

“The 19% growth in FY20 LiDCO product sales reflects growth in all regions compared with the prior year. LiDCO product sales grew by 28% in the USA to £1.8m (FY19: £1.4m), by 1% in the UK to £3.6m (FY19: £3.6m) and sales outside of the Company's direct markets were up 60% to £2.0m (FY19: £1.3m). The significant growth outside the UK included £0.4m growth in China from the launch of the new monitor and, as a result sales outside the UK now represent just over half (FY19: 43%) of LiDCO product sales.”

Re a raise, never say never but I have been through RNS’s back to April 14 and no placings. They are ebit positive have recurring revenues from monitors, directors have skin in this and looking at the last corporate presentation on the website they dedicate a couple of slides to M&A and how companies in the sector go for 4-7x revenues.

Don’t expect this to ten bag but it is a great growth story as a standalone business and should get a boost from cv19 particularly from US sales and a loosening of healthcare purse strings.

If you are looking for cv19 stocks I would recommend YGEN yet to move and SNG with a potential blockbuster treatment. I would not buy TILS, competitive space and coming from behind, TEK shell, funding always an issue and would just trade NCYT as a quicker test is about to be released From PHE. All imo...

Alternative there’s, Sutton Seeds, Baking trays, yeast, table tennis tables and jigsaw puzzles all pretty much sold out!

Trek

Hi notaflipper, the finals will be out this month. Personally I would not attribute too much correlation to NCYT’s growth, sp performance or financials. For YGEN testing and production is just a new revenue stream and unlike NCYT the market is not taking views of dependency or supply constraints, a sp choke that will apply to NCYT. As far as YGEN are concerned they can deal with x number of units and scale up within existing capex to produce and test whatever their capacity is. They then have a choice, do more (scale up which costs) or turn down work. Therein lies the significance of the ebitda number in the next set of results. It’s simply cash, they have shown exceptional organic growth at the interims and are cash positive to 0.3m with more to come and how much more from the accretive acquisition of Elucigene. They reduced costs significantly in H1 and one off’s no longer apply, its therefore (imo) pretty obvious that they have slack for no other reason than being slightly ahead of the curve for the IONA platform and potential further acquisitions. Whilst the finals will be historic, pre-Covid, it’s the outlook and credit/cash position that will be key. How much work can they take on that’s Covid related without compromising the existing model and what does that model look like going forward. Is Covid a stop gap using intrinsic capacity and just a bit of extra pay costs or is it going to feature as a longer term revenue stream and if that is the case is it self financing, do they need a cash injection, do they divert funds etc. This imo is the current enigma, however, rest assured the base model (bau) is sound and the sp has not been hyped as a Covid-19 stock. It’s hardly moved, yet. Finally for those very reasons that I have painted do not expect YGEN to make an astronomical rise like NCYT or have the billion $ potential of SNG. This is a pretty safe play with risk to the upside. All imo.

Trek

I have posted before the progress being made by CytoDyn as I think it’s useful to know what else is going on. Anyways medical science aside as that is a mystery to me! Note how the have updated the market in advance of any statically proven data. Surely SNG will be aware of the race, I know it’s different treatments etc, but it’s a race of kudos. Therefore leads me to think that we could get an early heads up...notable improvements, data to follow etc. Which would not compromise the trial and I am sure the will be aware of the need to keep the SP up and the interest of AZN.

“CytoDyn Inc (OTCQB:CYDY) announced Thursday that eight severe coronavirus (COVID-19) patients being treated with its drug leronlimab have shown a significant improvement after three days in several important biologic markers.

Initial patient test data has shown improvement in cytokines — proteins released by the immune system that can cause inflammation in high quantities — and a more normal ratio of helper T cells to killer T cells in the immune system, known as the CD4/CD8 ratio.

Leronlimab has been administered to 10 severely ill coronavirus patients in the New York City area under an emergency Investigational New Drug application granted by the US Food & Drug Administration (FDA).”

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/916491/cytodyn-says-coronavirus-patients-treated-with-leronlimab-show-initial-improvements-after-three-days-916491.html

Trek

Thanks for posting the ppt notaflipper. I have been through it and I am somewhat perplexed as to why they posted it now when the finals are due very soon. Sure it gives an update on the NCYT deal and reiterates the growth guidance but it is essential a restatement of the September interims. Previous investor presentations have been RNS’d this one wasn’t (or hasn’t yet). I think they were asked to pull something together for someone and having done the work stuck it on the website as it does instil confidence albeit it will soon be out of date. My guess is they pulled it together for someone else's DD, possibly NHS, NCYT, TF or someone else and they have not RNS’d it as they know it will soon be out of date. Obviously they cannot include updated financials as that is market sensitive but even on a webinar one can give away ‘excitement’ when asked about how confident you are at meeting guidance. How do I know this, I don’t, but I have done it myself before in a previous life. All good, very good!

Trek

Henry hub futures up 4.45% $1.62

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market-data

Trek

That 15k trade at the end of the day is a buy not a sell, it’s mine a ‘small’ top up as I have a decent position here ahead of results and am adding as I can on dips. The spread is showing buys as sells and probably vice versa as the lse algorithm can’t always work it out correctly...

Date 03/04/20
Time 16:29
Stock Name LIDCO GROUP ORD GBP0.005
Action Buy
Order Type Market
Symbol LID
Quantity 15,000.00
Limit Price
Price £0.0733
Consideration £1,099.50
Commission £7.99
Stamp Duty £0.00
Levy £0.00
Total £1,107.49
Accrued Interest £0.00
Expiry Date n/a

Trek

The company is not undervalued. Figures are historic and outlook was based on stockpiling. That is no longer the case. Supermarkets, shops etc can no longer get the footfall through because they are waiting outside in 2m gaps. Primark was the jewel. Sure food does well in recession but not as well and retailing is really gonna struggle. Even on line will struggle. This is a strong sell imo.

Trek

That comment is at the end of the RNS... it opens with

“LiDCO (AIM: LID), a leading supplier of hemodynamic monitoring company, announces that its Chinese distribution partner, Beijing Gloryway Medical Company, has recently sold a small number of monitors in Wuhan, China as a direct response to the COVID-19 virus outbreak.”

The whole RNS is a cautionary note, sure a small % need ICU but that seems to be becoming a bigger number as we peak. Like an earlier poster said you can bet orders for equipment will be arriving off the back of this and the NHS has had it’s debt written off! Health services will be ordering before this window closes and we get recurring revenues!

The dip today was on low volume, I had a buy order, it wasn’t filled so the price was only for an instant, it works both ways to the upside as well. This is aim. The main thing here is the prospects and the pipeline looks very good. The sp will reflect that especially at this time and it’s my opinion LID are for sale at 7x earnings. With health spending showing no sign of abating consolidation and M&A will happen. All imo.

Trek