Member Info for TrekMadone

Must say looks good. I just put off by spread/liquidity in this market…..

“ FY 2021 results 4basebio’s full-year results to 31 December 2021 reflect consistent progress towards its main objectives, with recently completed clean rooms undergoing validation ahead of targeted DNA production towards the year end. It generated revenues of £0.34m with a pre-tax loss of £3.64m (FY 2020: £0.72m) and ended the period with £9.6m cash, providing it with a cash runway into 2023 and an undrawn loan facility of €25m. When fully operational, this facility will be able to produce DNA with a value in excess of £25m pa and c.80% gross margins. In the meantime, the company continues to build partnerships, with four disclosable agreements signed to date and many that remain under NDAs. We have made changes to forecasts to reflect increased investment in R&D and headcount and reiterate our sum-of-the-parts DCF target price of 1,200p. This is underpinned by the expected high demand for DNA and the significant potential of its technology to address key challenges in the cell and gene therapy space. ”

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Trek

Not expecting much from results tbh. Raised a load of money and have spent it. That’s what we expected.

All about the outlook esp what’s next at Killi. Assays and grades, how much we can self finance going forward.

I think RM would have got the message from the last interview about the confusion re TZ/Kenya expansion and will be more specific about intentions.

All about the futures and the chair’s statement imo and that should be bullish accounting for the mcap.

As for the SP well I think December is realistically the next value point with the usual volatility in between.

As for a seller, I maintain it’s now mostly PI’s. I sold 2m in the 9’s and bought back in the 8’s. I expect others have done the same. All part of the game.

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Trek

Come on guys, good news today is you can actually sell some stock without sending it to the MM for best as was the case pretty much all day Friday!

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Trek

Commodities down on recession and supply side constraints also China extended lockdown..

I sold 2/3rds Friday. Took my money out. Left in profit to ride to hedge my bets.

Chart was due a pull back at some point will see how it goes. Can always buy back in.

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Trek

Here you go Legal…..

Re the TR1’s.....

Thresholds are 3% for UK and 5% for International TR1 notifications, these are marked as ‘non UK issuer’ with an ‘x’ in the appropriate box on form TR1. Then it’s a full 1% (Uk) and 5% (non UK) crossings….

Note it also applies to financial instruments…

From FCA handbook....DTR 5.1.2 sub para 1

“(1) reaches, exceeds or falls below 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10% and each 1% threshold thereafter up to 100% (or in the case of a non-UK issuer on the basis of thresholds at 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 50% and 75%) as a result of an acquisition or disposal of shares or financial instruments falling within DTR 5.3.1 R“

https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR/5/

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Trek

‘ Caracal Gold (LON: GCAT), a newly listed gold miner operating at the Kilimapesa mine in Kenya with an initial annual gold production target of +50,000oz, has announced its first delivery of gold ahead of schedule. CEO Robbie McCrae says two recent acquisitions in Tanzania, combined with the strengthening gold price, offer “significant development potential”. VSA Capital says GCAT continues to make strong progress towards fulfilling its production targets: “We highlight that, in tandem with the capacity expansions, drilling has been underway at Kilimapesa and exploration results are due providing further potential share price catalysts.” VSA reiterates a ‘buy’ recommendation. The share price opened for trading this morning at 94p, a return of -17.2% YTD.“

https://www.thearmchairtrader.com/mitchells-butlers-petrofac-and-mg/

Trek

There you go, Fed stuck to 50bps, uS 10yr below 3, dollar weaker gold bounced. May get through 1900 again soon.

Key thing was comments. Fed chair reckons they can flatten inflation and stave off recession with less monetary tightening.

Funny old thing how a narrative can change. POG used to just be a usd/inflation hedge. Now it’s more complex.

I note crypto rallied as well.

Seems like interest rates is becoming the primary driving force now. Let’s face it after all the QE the dollar far from collapsed as some gold bugs would have had you believe! And what about the lauded basel 3 or even war. None have really turbocharged POG yet it was spooked by interest rates!

Anyways. Imo fwiw, if rates stabilise and the international moves by Russia (Eurasia) and China play out to develop or even move towards a rival usd currency then that can only boost gold. Doubt it will happen as both are protectionists but they only need to talk about it!

Main thing is gold still has its place but it seems to be tied closer to the difference between rates (US 10yr) and inflation than any other driver and that still remains a negative yield.

Miners will have their day again soon.

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Trek

Glad it’s pulled back so can average in. :-)

Trek

Well I had a look back in. Got burnt here on Lupizor, ouch! But still knew the drug had promise.

Have sat quietly through the finance deals.

So an RNS to say the papers are in the post. Ok guess we are informed.

Always said I’d probably buy if Tim bought some shares. Has he yet?

Think I will sit on my hands and don’t mind paying more later. Let’s see.

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Trek

Ps ho Nolupus is well if he is still here.

Been on my watchlist for ages this one. Been waiting for a move. Anyways in now at a tad under .82.

Love the potential operational impact of deleveraging on this balance sheet. Could be transformational for the Co and the SP.

Well worth a punt!

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Trek

“ (Sharecast News) - Chemicals outfit Synthomer said on Thursday that it had made "an encouraging start to the year", with all but one of its businesses ahead of or in line with Q1 2021 results.
Synthomer stated whilst macroeconomic conditions remained "uncertain", it was "encouraged" by underlying trading conditions and its strong Q1 performance, with continued margin growth reflecting its ability to successfully manage the inflationary environment.

The FTSE 250-listed firm said it continued to see "very positive trading" in its function solutions unit and a "good start to the year" in its industrial specialities division.

On the other hand, Synthomer's performance elastomers arm witnessed nitrile sales continue to normalise relative to an "exceptional" 2021 performance.

Accordingly, Synthomer kept its full-year outlook unchanged, with the board remaining confident that benefits from recent acquisitions, continued investment in new capacity, and its "proven growth strategy" will all work to underpin "sustainable profit growth" in the coming years.”

Not sure why they need two brokers though unless buying or selling something. Other that that waste of money imo.

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Trek

That 500k buy at 1.53 was mine. Ask went up immediately after. I know I said I wouldn’t but one’s views should change with data and I couldn’t believe we didn’t open higher after those results!

Anyways I bought bang on my average so well pleased with that and fortunately still have a measured position which I am comfortable with.

Good luck with your investments

Trek

That’s it now built my final final position here. The unknown trades at 50p are buys.

Now sitting on my hands waiting for permit news and non dilutive finance news.

Read the investor presentation again the weekend and it’s very impressive. One criticism is the Ag price is a bit lofty but that’s offset by others that I reckon will be well under.

Taken advantage of the recent lull and now a case of waiting.

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Trek

POG has dropped to 1868 on hawkish Fed outlook. If they stick with 50bps today then there may be a rally. If they raise more then US 10year treasuries will likely go above 3% making it more attractive to hold the greenback short term than zero yielding gold.

Whilst we may think it doesn’t affect juniors especially on an 868 net return over AISC it does. It affects sentiment and sentiment affects sectors and a markets as a whole in some shape or other.

Sentiment affects the backdrop for which you borrow money against because it factors into the lenders outlook.

As a consequence bar a few exceptions gold and gold stocks remain depressed.

We just gotta work on that business case to become an exception. Director buys defo help and our appointments but the market still wants more. If we continue to do the right things it will be reflected in the SP, always though with a discount and always with volatility.

Welcome to the world of junior mining investing!

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Trek

It’s the poor inflationary outlook, supply side constraints, escalating second hand car & Repair costs and the disconnect between reality and management guidance which has been way over optimistic that has spooked the market.

Glad I grabbed a quick profit and ran. Not rushing back in here or any other insurers for now albeit I rate DLG as one of the better ones.

Whats the point of a 10p divi if a SP drops 20p…

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Trek

No idea what they are up to above 5%, below, now above again!

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Trek

Hi Swampmonster,

Absolutely it’s about trusting management, I do, I also expect them to grow into the role rather than have it right from the off.

An example of that is the CLN’s. That was sold as the finance path of choice. However, now that the company have successfully come to market on much better terms for the 2 mill they have grown into the role and had the nouse to cancel the CLN’s with confidence that they can get a better deal. I respect that dynamic change of mind based on improved circumstances.

I explained that the 2m only covers phase 3. They still need cash for TZ (not a problem with me) within a year. But one has to ask…

Why cancel the CLN’s…

My view…

Because as the ops have developed they are coming from a position of strength. That means you earn the right to negotiate better financial terms hence they burnt the CLN’s with knowledge that they can now get better terms.

The ‘raison d'etre’ for many companies listing is to raise cash to grow so don’t be surprised when they do (not saying you aren’t).

But as I stated in my post on Friday….

“ Raising cash is fine and is non dilutive if the assets increase relative to the amount of shares therefore the share price still increases. That is what we have seen thus far. 0.95p to 1p with more shares and more NAV.”

My challenge now having read the interims several times is as I posted and as apr also picked up on. Look beyond equity warrant based finance. Non dilutive finance can have a huge NPV benefit and be far more straightforward for shareholders.

And.. examples have been given.

But like you say and I absolutely agree we gotta trust the management to make the best decisions.

Anyways, good discussion, isn’t that what a BB is for. Thank you for your comments. They imo add more value than the £1 by Christmas posts. Well you know what I mean but they are not as popular! Lol!

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Trek

We do not know how or when Tanzania will be funded.

As pointed out the 14th Feb 2022 ‘appointment of joint broker and clarification’ RNS they will not be proceeding with the convertible instruments as set out in the 7th Dec 21 (not 22, syntax error) RNS.

We know that the monies raised are for phase 3, it says that in the placement RNS and again in the interims section 13….

“ On 14 February 2022, 177,048,592 placing shares were issued at a price of 0.95 pence per share, The proceeds of this placement were used to fund the capital and working capital costs of the announced Phase 3 Development Plan.

On 17 February 2022, 16,000,000 placing shares were issued at a price of 1.25 pence per share. The proceeds of this placement were used to fund the capital and working capital costs of the announced Phase 3 Development Plan.”

There is clearly a gap in the TZ funding requirements. Robbie pretty much as said that and we will need to raise this year. Although revenues from mining can self fund the running and development costs they will not provide immediate capital injection.

There will need to be an amount of juggling so as not to jeopardise the 2.5p warrant strike price if equity funding is required. There are many catalyst’s for that. Pretty much in apro’s timelines.

However, my preference would be they actually looked out of the box for non dilutive debt financing. With an asset and a producing mine they could raise cash in market. The normal terms are cash on deposit to cover three months payments and a fixed rate + LIBOR (or market equivalent) + a royalty exposure to share in profit.

I hold PXC which is currently finalising non dilutive mine finance. I also hold APC which specialise in offering finance for 21st C metals on a similar basis. My Point is it’s out there!

A well structured deal can be a win win offering a fixed return on investment with royalty upside and the business gets access to non dilutive finance plus an ongoing financial relationship.

It really is about time more of these junior miners adopted less dilutive high fee based capital structures with insane amounts of warrants chucked that often lead to share price shenanigans and manipulation.

Yes I hold because I can see it becoming a highly profitable company pretty much by any stretch but I would prefer that they at least explored alternative finance pathways. But then where is the incentive in that for some!

Well Robbie, hope you read this post this wet weekend in Devon. I would email but no one replies!

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Trek

Yep here we are. Hall of fame!

https://uk.investing.com/equities/52-week-high

Trek

Well we could go for between 20x and 100x revenues. That’s nailed it down lol!

https://finerva.com/report/biotech-genomics-2021-valuation-multiples/

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Trek