Member Info for TrekMadone

I wouldn’t include Ireland and defo not UK (if it’s there) as taxation and politics are too volatile. That is why countries like Kenya, Tanzania, Ghana are become more favoured. They have a stable to improving tax regime. Also no talk of devolution etc!

TR1’s….. old doc but shows exemptions clearly. They haven’t to my knowledge changed. It’s for Custodians..

‘ Exempt Holdings
The following types of holdings are among those that are exempt from the calculation as to whether or not a reporting threshold has been reached or exceeded and may be disregarded:
• Shares acquired for the sole purpose of clearing and settlement within a three-day settlement cycle;
• Shares held by a custodian or nominee in that capacity, provided that the custodian or nominee can only exercise the voting rights attached to such shares under instructions given in writing or by electronic means;
• Shares held by a market maker;
• Shares held by a bank or investment firm within its trading book;
• Shares transferred as collateral, provided that the collateral taker does not declare its intention to exercise, and does not exercise, the voting rights attached to such shares; and
• Shares borrowed under a stock lending agreement.“

https://www.srz.com/images/content/1/4/149202/SRZ-UK-Shareholder-Activism-Briefing-FCA-Rules-on-Trade-Reportin.pdf

Custodians and Nominee accounts….

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nominee.asp

These took part in the March financing but are held in nominee accounts same as retail….

‘ Hargreaves Hale (Marlborough Nano-Cap Growth Fund), Tosca Fund, Premier Miton and Edale.’

Usual caveats

Trek

Lol Bilko,

Couple of negatives, Ag price is imo a tad high in the PEA. I have posted that before to have some balance to my posts

Cu has come off its highs…

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/copper

Since they have given us as good as assurances re non dilutive funding rates have gone up.

Major shareholders are invisible as they are also hidden in nominees accounts. I had that on email exchange with the Co

That’s pretty much it other than the obvious mining risks.

As for the positives how long you got but many are already listed.

Well that’s my attempt at a deramp as I will be topping up soon when I can flip some in here but the wider market is doing well atm. Hoping to get my average close to 50p.

Was good to know that bankrupty’s 32500 trade was a buy and not a sell as shown. I am watching the trades over the next few days to get a feel for the prices.

Good luck with your investments

Usual caveats

Trek

Mine shows as a sell as well. Anything over 73 is likely a buy.

Some MM’s offering better price than spread.

Now is the time to accumulate imo. Below all the recent placing prices then wait for 24k Oz’s or even 12k at this price!

Usual caveats

Trek

Why, she’s down 4.67% to .72….

Then comes my 200k buy at .7495 and google goes back to .75….

There’s zilch volume on L2…

Vol rules ok so that’s why I am adding in tranches now!

Missed out the zeros but you get the drift.

Usual caveats

Trek

Bought 4 lots this morning. Been a pita to buy even breaking trades down . Sometimes was NT for 5000 on ii! You have to wait for the seller to release more shares then you can get a price. Then it goes NT again. Then you have to wait.

Anyways got plenty now!

Good luck with your investments

Usual caveats

Trek

And directors talk…18th May

Q2: Now Coho pipeline is almost ready to go, is this still on track to come online by the end of the month?

A2: Yes, the Coho pipeline, it’s been a long time, I think you and I have talked about this for a long time, but it is finally weeks away. Likely the way we have it set up right now, right around the end of the month or the first couple of weeks in June. We just don’t know what we’ll encounter when we get to those final stages and putting it in production but literally, we’re weeks away now from first gas at Coho.

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Scott,

“ Where did you get "mid-June" for Coho.. I saw:”

2:20mins “next 4-6 weeks”. Vid is less than two weeks old.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/LON:TXP/Touchstone-Exploration-Inc

Usual caveats

Trek

Here you go Stephen,

Have a look at the corporate presentation. Huge expo program financed by existing and gas/oil production. Lightly leveraged, never say no, but should be no more dilution. Coho on line by mid June…”wall of cash”. A realistic future production prospect of +32k boe / day which would give a £1bn mcap and a future huge divi payer!

But as far as E&P goes it’s relatively low risk!

https://www.touchstoneexploration.com/

Many of us here have what is now a large position having been in since sub 20p

Usual caveats

Trek

UBS picked up 6.057788%, the threshold was crossed on 17th Feb. Previous disclosure was zero.

They have been trading since as the SP they paid then was around 142p.

There have been 8 TR1’s since their buy and they have just gone below 5% from 5.42%. On previous occasions they have gone below and bought back cheaper.

I think they are just trying to get their average down. They could of course be trying to sell out but that does seem to be a quick change of mind given the positive newsflow since the interims or rather should I say no negative newsflow other than of course macro. Inflation and war.

In terms of inflation it’s a pretty straightforward pass your costs on to your customers for ONC; and being in health it’s more of an ageing population thing with folk living longer, getting ‘fatter’ etc improving science. So it’s not a factory closing scenario.

ONC have a USP, products and services that others want and need. It cannot be replicated easily. There is huge barrier to entry and it saves others potentially a lot of time and cash.

Ok I am biased as I am invested but I think the UBS shenanigans is an opportunity. Of course the SP can go lower but I intend to drip money in here with smaller buys to get my average down which will help mitigate any further drop as I am pretty confident that the SP will turn at some point in the near future.

I see the results in August as the catalyst for that which basically comes down to trusting Adam and the team. Which I do.

I am very fortunate to have had winners elsewhere so any loss looks ok on the bottom line. But the application and diligence here has been the same as elsewhere so I trust my research as well as the team.

Time will tell!

Good luck with your investments

Usual caveats

Trek

Wow guys some decent holdings there! I know it sounds mad but if I can time GLO exit well then some will be heading here. I think anything sub 70p will do very well in a pretty short time!

The ‘ducks are lining up’ and this is a relatively unknown share. 1% explored and I prefer drills where there are historic mine works!

Good luck

Usual caveats

Trek

Picked this up off the HEMO BB, it gives credence to my earlier narrative on sector sentiment…

https://www.geekwire.com/2022/biotech-stocks-are-getting-crushed-but-industry-insiders-say-theres-reason-for-optimism/

Obvious caveats are vested interests with these blogs but the chart looks due a bounce at some point!

Usual caveats

Trek

Results next week, 26th.

Expecting a mixed bag as it’s been a relatively mild winter but expecting good things from card payments, digital and expanding connect +.

Chartwise a recovery is due but tbh it could go either way.

We haven’t had to deal with 9% inflation here. Whilst PAY has a fantastic moat it’s still susceptible to defaults and economic slow down. Look at the covid slip!

I do though think that much is in the SP.

I added this week to actually average up! But I wouldn’t necessarily recommend that as I did catch the dip and I am building a longer term income position here although I will trade the fringes.

I think new money is better off waiting for the results and then adding some absorption time before investing. That’s what I plan to do for my next top up.

Others that may be more optimistic well if that’s the case then defo hedge some in ahead and perhaps add some after but it’s brave to go all in before one knows the chairs outlook as the climate is changing.

But here’s a thing, I view PAY as a defensive reliable divi payer at this SP. There is a huge 600p resistance and a 550p support, forget the 1100p highs that’s a long way off now if ever!

It’s at the lower end of the trading range. That’s my advantage as my average here is a beautiful thing right on the dip! I will continue to buy as close to the support as possible, sell a % at the resistance and recycle. That’s improved my income here!

Usual caveats

Trek

Just catching up on todays RNS’s I see NFC have paid 10 x annual profits for M&C saatchi. A near 50% premium to the closing SP!

We get 36% premium. You can forget the VWAP as the sp has been distorted by the Ukrainian war.

So a 70.2p premium to the close. How long does it take to get that premium back?

Well if you just use the divi. In one year it pays 16.05p. In 4 years the divi hear based on the 10% year on year compounding as per policy is 74.49p!

So the divi pays the premium back in less than 4 years!

Then you factor in that the divi is 2.8x covered by cash! So that is under 2 years!

Ebitda was up 17% to $842m with a solid 52% cash conversion ratio! And we are/were valued at 1/3rd of EV!

Then you add in the 33m (from memory) for the Brazilian assset disposal!

And then factor in the energy macro!

This company is pretty much a cash printing machine!

It has been bought for a song! It’s an immediate ROI given it’s assets!

The biggest problem is Reservoir our biggest shareholder who clearly want a quick sale and the BoD that are around their finger! But you have to ask why.

It’s clearly back to private ownership because our UK markets refuse to attribute appropriate value to these companies. The BoD have tried and no matter what the SP languished as cheap!

They have obviously been under pressure to get value back for the major shareholder.

I have no immediate answer for it. That’s the job of the LSE but then it’s has to be a free market.

Not getting political as I have voted for them all at some point but I do think a UK sovereign wealth fund would help.

I am not a fan of windfall taxes on investors, like the muted energy tax, but I do think the government should buy strategic long term investments in companies, take an arms length position and distribute the dividends back to the country through in country investment. That reduces taxes and creates a better business infrastructure.

You look at the trillions in QE that have basically ended up as share buy backs or filtered to junk bonds and currency depreciation . That money could have had a meaningful home and the income used to build hospitals, refit schools etc.

Anyways, it’s my own a political view and another huge missed opportunity as our leaders of whatever colour seem to just have a short term view based on self.

And yes I guess by trading I probably don’t help. But I am self funded from pretty much zilch and the trading, which incidentally pays a lot in tax is a symptom not the cause.

A thought for the weekend!

Usual caveats

Trek

Blue finish. Sweet. Looks like a few larger buys may have been waiting for confirmation of the bottom by seeing a lift.

Of course we won’t know yet but think of the folk saying ‘oh I wish I bought more now!’

O/T…

Anyways NOT a rec as it’s a silly super high risk punt but some that fancy a lottery ticket could check out CLON. Got a high impact gas drill coming up soon, rig mob next week.

30% ish COS but they are drilling in a producing gas fairway in Western Australia which gives a much higher cos, up to 88% if you believe the hype! Could be up to 11 TCF of gas. That’s more hype! Lol! But here’s the thing even 1 TCF with their low mcap and 10% entitlement could be hugely transformational for the SP. So it really is a very good risk reward for a drill.

I must stress it is NOT a rec. I have a ‘small’ position there for the drill.

I have only posted here as often folks don’t to hear about these things or they find out via subscription services.

Anyways it’s one of those other rare chances. You may be able to take profits ahead of TD but honestly DO treat it as a flutter. Nuff said.

Usual caveats,

Have a nice weekend all.

Trek

You pretty much can’t go wrong with the major insurers. Their tier 1 capital ratios give investors huge protection now and yes DLG is a good bet. I have traded them very successfully. Recently grabbed divi sold and bought back at 237. I will be out again at 260.

Not advice but I have a spreadsheet of high divi stocks and their xd dates/yield etc. I then use TA to buy ahead of the divi and to sell. Sometimes I sell half before and leave half other times I may collect the divi then sell when the SP recovers from the drop.

For bi-annual payers in this highly volatile market you don’t need to tie up all your cash waiting for the divi. You just need to be invested at the right times. If you look at the charts for ABDN, MNG, CSN, LGEN etc for 1 to 3 years you can clearly see that they are trading shares. To illustrate the difference look at the chart on AAF. That is an investors share to hold and hug with a steadily glidepath and increasing divi.

Insurers are more volatile than folk think and if you buy the top it’s a lower yield and you stare at red in your pf. Never be afraid to sell and buy cheaper or reduce and re buy like 50% at a time. It’s not for everyone as it is hard work but it’s an alternative to hold and hug which really is for trusts/funds and not always suitable for shares.

I made over 20% on MNG and am waiting for sub 200p to buy back in again. If it doesn’t happen there are always other opportunities. In hindsight with that one I should have held a marker from my low buy to build back up from. Always learning!

I have researched some of the closed ended funds recommended below. Some I have written off purely because the costs are so high. One was even 3.35% from memory!. There are a few that I will dig deeper later and will put them all on a spreadsheet so I can compare and scrape data easier. But that’s why I prefer shares, no management costs.

My dealing costs are only £3.99 a trade so I can move in and out pretty quickly. The recent volatility has provided loads of opportunities! The S&P just touched bear territory today, 20% drop. So you don’t want to be all in on certain stocks.

Anyways it’s been a great week this week!

For those looking for a long term growth play with immediate SP catalysts. Check out PXC. Cracking price atm, my average there is 52p. I have mentioned it before but there has been legislative news released today that will accelerate permitting in USA.

For those looking for some shoot or bust excitement where the short term upside could be like 10x check out CLON. Massive high impact drill with 33% COS but they are drilling part of a producing gas fairway (Western Australia) which has had an 88% success rate! All said it’s still super high risk so £100 or a couple of £k. Whatever your risk appetite is but I wouldn’t buy more than you can afford to write off. If you get more there will likely be an opportunity to take profits ahead of TD.

Usual caveats

Trek

I will be following you with a nice top up here. I am waiting for the divi a GLO. Will then sell some and may even buy a few back for next divi. ??

Trek

Someone really trying to get the price down here imo to force sells. Got 1000 at 89.42p! Will show in a minute. That’s all the cash I had in my dealing account until I sell elsewhere. Been a busy day today!

Will be interesting to see if at there is a published sell at 85p is as that was the quote to offload at when I bought.

Also worth noting is you can sell large amounts here! That doesn’t tally with a distressed SP. More like a buyer working the sp to flush out sells!

Usual caveats

Trek

Good find Richyf3,

It’s all part of the US Keynesian infrastructure spending plans. I just wish our govt had a plan but that takes thought and a longer term investment horizon than thinking about the next election!

There is little point in just using interest rates to address inflation when the cause is supply side and infrastructure constraints. That’s what they are addressing in the plan and imo PXC are in the sweet spot in Idaho!

https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/briefing-room/2022/05/11/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-releases-permitting-action-plan-to-accelerate-and-deliver-infrastructure-projects-on-time-on-task-and-on-budget/

Permits and finance will come. More drilling result’s. Mine up and running end of year. Each news point now is potentially a huge SP catalyst up or down! But the odds are looking better all the time!

Usual caveats

Trek

I grabbed 2000 today.

UBS gone below 5% using their Switzerland address to avoid notifying at 3% no doubt! Expect they will be back above 5% again in a couple of weeks!

Again though we haven’t had the volume here to show any sign if buys or sells.

No idea how they are doing it or what the motive is other than I am pretty sure their intention is not to loose money!

Perhaps they are grabbing stock and moving it on to a suitor? All things possible.

I am sticking to my research and convictions here. Hospitals are close to normal levels now following covid/omicron.

ONC will be ramping up tests at higher volumes and there has been lots in the press about long covid (lighthouse labs).

There was no raise, the CFO cited revenues were sufficient to cover ops and that seems to be the case.

Sure Matthew sold some but like I say they are not exactly millionaires, there could have been any reason for a sale and Adam has bought some on the open market and held. Management options are at 200p!

We have had further news of additional contracts and returning customers.

The small cap sector is down as a whole, not just Biotechs.

With only 66m shares here and a relatively low float this will always move disproportionately up and down on low volumes.

The trading update in Feb was very positive. I am expecting the new hires to be up and running and further commercial traction with immunoINSIGHTS especially in the US.

My money is on a takeover here when the finals are out in August.

ONC have just made themselves so valuable that one of the clients could well view not bringing them in house as a risk.

Having done bucket loads of research here I view sub 100p as an opportunity and intend to nibble away averaging down my holding here.

Usual caveats

Trek

AG1989,

Good well balanced post as always imo. My sentiments as well.

I picked up 500k to average down a tad. Will likely get more latter but I don’t see an immediate runaway SP just yet.

Usual caveats

Trek