Member Info for TrekMadone

Q4: Long term production at Royston, how’s that going?

A4: That test at Royston is coming to end, we’ve produced it and we’ve talked about that, that’s been on production for quite a while. We’re not going to shut it in, get a final build up on it and quite frankly, get the lease ready to move the rig back here in the next couple of months and do a side track of that well and go down and recomplete it so that we can really test that lower sheet, which I’ll call the intermediate sheet, and potentially the subthrust sheets.

So, the information we’ve got is great, we’ve got thousands of barrels of oil that we’ve sold over the period of time here and now it’s just time to get ready for the next operation on at Royston.

Trek

“ Q1: Paul, you’ve announced Touchstone Exploration’s first quarter results. Could you just talk us through the highlights?

A1: I think the main highlights are the strong cash position that we’ve left ourselves in a quarter with just over $10 million of available cash to get us through our capital programme, through the remainder of this year. About $1.4 million of free cashflow for the first quarter and production volumes that were up almost 10% to about 1,400 barrels a day for the first quarter. That was the main highlights, it was a little bit of a quiet first quarter but a good one, nonetheless.

Q2: Now Coho pipeline is almost ready to go, is this still on track to come online by the end of the month?

A2: Yes, the Coho pipeline, it’s been a long time, I think you and I have talked about this for a long time, but it is finally weeks away. Likely the way we have it set up right now, right around the end of the month or the first couple of weeks in June. We just don’t know what we’ll encounter when we get to those final stages and putting it in production but literally, we’re weeks away now from first gas at Coho.

Q3: When are you expecting approval from the EIA and can you tell us any more information about the application?

A3: The EIA is moving along really well. We got a what they call an information request last week and we’ve just about done completing that, we’re submitting on Friday. Nothing really major, mainly typos and some clarification errors in our application, we’ll get that in on Friday and then we’ll get a response back from them.

Under the regulations, they’re supposed to be back to us by the 15th which is next week so I think realistically we’re probably a week/10 days away but that’s not going to delay the initial production date that we had for the end of September this year.

So everything’s right on track from this release.

There is an interview Q&A there with Paul.

The link won’t post properly but you can google it.

Trek

Just saw this and other posts.

Thank you all for your kind words.

My view is if PI’s can make a few bob they tend to do some good with it and that helps make the world better.

We don’t win them all as it’s a flipping jungle and stuff is often loaded against us! But if we share and call it as we see it with honesty we can help each other even if it gives a different view or perspective. That’s what these BB’s are for.

I am thrilled that some folk have made a bit here even though many are loosing a steady income. Mine was 8.55% but the one off premium represents a fair few years divi up front to invest elsewhere.

Good luck with your investments.

Usual caveats

Trek

Apart from the obvious asset give away at 1/3 of EV!! what does it mean to PI’s contemplating selling now?

Assume you have 1000 shares…

T/O price 263.6p

You get 1000 x (£2.636-4p) = £2596 per 1000 shares.

By waiting you collect the divi = 4.0128 x 1000 shares = £40.128

So £2596 + £40.128 = £2636.128

Those selling now going by the last trades today on LSE get 256.5p.

So 1000 x £2.565 = £2565 (less your costs, I will leave out)

That’s a difference of £71.128 per 1000 shares..

For an average PI, I have no idea what that is, but say a few that invested may have up to 5000 shares, some may have 100000 but I bet most have a couple of thousand shares as they spread their risk elsewhere.

So the point is….

5000 shares = 5 x £71.128 = £355.64
100000 shares = 100 x £71.128 = £7112.8

Now factor in Reservoir Capital that have undertakings for 71.36% of the issued shares then you do the math!

So the price is well positioned so that it’s hardly worth holding the shares for the average PI but it is for much bigger holders.

That is why you are seeing buys coming through for say 200k shares because it’s worth taking money off LIBOR and putting it on risk here for those that can but for the smaller shareholders they are selling relatively cheap and Bidco are mopping up the shares and the votes!

For a large buyer it’s pretty much free money if it goes through as the vote is a forgone conclusion due to Reservoir’s huge holding and delay risk is underpinned by the next two close together divi’s and the obvious asset discount.

If you think this bid is undervalued as I do then others will to. Simple as. It’s just a question of time now. Hopefully potential bidders will be doing the numbers.

The oil majors are awash with cash and have been selling HC assets to develop renewables. GLO has an amazing pf of assets and it would be relatively easy to offload any you didn’t want as they run pretty much independently.

However, a ‘small PI holding’ would have to factor in the additional time and unknowns for say an extra 25p premium a share IF a counter bid came in. Again that may not be worth the risk but it may be for a larger holder.

For them the risk is also ‘as long as the deal completes’. However, favour is that the majority shareholders already have 75% of vote and there is unlikely to be any competition or regulatory conflict as it’s small scale assets.

So holders will get at least 259.6p a share + the divi if buying now and holding to the end or a 6.6p payment per share for waiting.

That’s £66 per 1000 shares! Or £3300 on 50k shares! (2.568% for 6 months). Not to be snubbed at!

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the price to move up as institutional investors work it through as the can also hedge the downside.

I intend to hold the ones I have now. I may sell some if I need the cash but am not selling out otherwise.

Usual caveats

Trek

Yep mine appeared in my ii account. Just sold them.

Nothing against POOL, just imo better offers elsewhere and would rather look to re buy after all this settles.

Good luck with your investments

Trek

For those looking for quarterly income I also hood these. You can work out cover, history etc…

Be patient with timing your investments though just don’t go all in.

PAY…5.82% yield. Buy around 570. Be prepared it may go lower in this market so hold for 550 as well. But this is also a TO candidate!

JIM…. Recently had a slight divi cut but SP is near all time lows I have been buying at under 230 for +6% yield. Looks like money already heading there today!

SEPL…. 6.4%, trades on SETS can be difficult to buy. Read my last posts there for company info

APF… I have reduced significantly as it’s likely going lower. Add to your watchlist and be patient for sub 150.

SMS… I had an amazing run on this and is now pulling back as expected I sold +850 from under 700p! Put on your watchlist for sub 800, sub 770, use your TA skills here. Good one to buy if market has a wobble.

WINK… on watchlist buy on weekness, sub 190. Not very liquid so be aware.

High yield that’s ‘cheap’ other than the obvious insurers.

SYNT and CMCX… look at my posts there for a flavour.

Dyor…..

Still Bllox!

Usual caveats

Trek

Bllox! Bllox! Bllox!

I always had 260p as fair value for this little gem, check my history.

Note all the positives from KKR…..

‘ KKR believes that ContourGlobal is a high quality business underpinned by a balanced and geographically diversified power generation portfolio across multiple technologies. ContourGlobal has highly contracted and inflation-protected cash flow streams with pass-through mechanisms, and sells power under long-term contracts to investment grade counterparties or against regulated tariffs (together around 90 per cent. of the portfolio).

I am getting +8% here forward yield quarterly and it’s a huge % of my pension.

260 does not represent fair takeover value, it is only just reflective of a discounted asset value. Where else can you get a 10% yoy divi growth! Where else can you match GLO’s organic growth in safe juro’s.

I will NOT be voting in favour of this even though it’s futile given the shareholder distribution.

There needs to be more money on the table and I wouldn’t rule out a counter offer at this stupid price.

GLO would have got to 260 under its own steam as a defensive diverse B rated ESG energy Company. Haven’t the board noticed what is happening in the energy sector ffs!

Madness!

Absolute sell out we were listed around this level ffs!

Sorry for the delay in my post just sold elsewhere to buy more GLO!

Usual caveats

Trek

The aforementioned trades at .8 or more are likely buys. Larger volume ones are very likely sells.

Looks like normal offloading. Hopefully a last ditch clear out, job done and out.

We will soon see if the SP bounces and the MM’s want to sell them back for more!

Tedious, absolutely but hopefully it will soon come to pass.

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Sam,

O/T

I had it removed, in retrospect I felt it gave to much info which is not helpful esp in this tough market. It got a few ticks though so hopefully some benefitted.

I note my PHNX target got hit today already!

Make sure you read the last company presentation here and at least the last 6 months RNS’s. Look at the chart and see how quickly it moves with volume.

Use the fully diluted capital structure (136m shares), factor in £2bn M&I resource. Thats a huge understatement on potential. Permits and finance will imo arrive! 57m mcap huge lol!

Good luck with your investments

Trek

Her tiz,

Like anyone believes these ‘muppets’ more often wrong!

“ BROKER RATING CHANGES

Goldman Sachs raises Phoenix Group to 'buy' (neutral) - price target 857 (700) pence”

Usual caveats

Trek

Incredible move today briefly through 630! Didn’t expect that!

Trek

Plus numbers out today…outstanding, near 50% return and sp hardly moves!

“ In 2021, Plus500 posted pretax profit of USD386.4 million on revenue of USD718.7 million.

"The group's strong performance so far in 2022 has also been driven by the development of new proprietary technologies and product offerings, which will deliver growth and drive expansion and diversification across new geographies," Plus500 added.‘

Usual caveats

Trek

Plus numbers out today…outstanding, near 50% return and sp hardly moves!

“ In 2021, Plus500 posted pretax profit of USD386.4 million on revenue of USD718.7 million.

"The group's strong performance so far in 2022 has also been driven by the development of new proprietary technologies and product offerings, which will deliver growth and drive expansion and diversification across new geographies," Plus500 added.‘

Usual caveats

Trek

From personal experience with these type of events your presentation usually tells a great story but the focus is on what’s next, when and how.

I am hoping that there is news close to all this networking. That’s when 2 and 2 will be likely put together!

Looks like it wants to go higher today.

Can’t beat a bit of anticipation! :-)

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi O&W,

This was stuck below 100p for a year and was yielding 20% at one point. It is now approaching 5 year SP highs.

That indicates to me that the market wanted a huge risk premium in the past, didn’t trust the divi, so didn’t believe the fcf but the numbers kept coming through. It’s only now on the back of the higher poo that the SP has moved.

I don’t think there is much in it (sp) for the Exxon deal which is potentially huge, risk to the upside there!

https://www.seplatenergy.com/media/wojc2c5e/seplat-acquisition-of-mpnu-presentation.pdf

I bought in figuring the poo underpinned the sp and liked the last presentation(s) and a potentially transformational deal. Been adding up to 130 with an average of 121 for what I see as a reliable quarterly yield of +6.3% at this SP with the potential to increase if the Exxon deal completes. Not much more complex than that imo.

Worth checking the last years results and guidance …

https://www.seplatenergy.com/media/dp2lotb5/seplat-energy-fy-21-results_final_28022022.pdf

Furthermore, the energy transition agenda is also interesting and I doubt taken seriously by many investors yet….

https://www.seplatenergy.com/media/hy1jvu2b/seplat-transition-agenda.pdf

This type of share has a habit of showing the intention with a steady climb and then a sudden rerate. It could be on the back of a deal or even Europes intention to buy more African HC’s. I get the feeling that SEPL and SAVE are well positioned to move up but more importantly apart from a sudden collapse in the price of energy the downside for both at current share price is imo limited by their trading range.

So while you may not time the bottom at least the backside shouldn’t fall out of either even if the proposed deals don’t turn out to be so great or don’t go through. Then I would see an obvious hit but both should recover based on existing organic operations.

Usual caveats

Trek

Wouldn’t say game changing… just half an hour appetiser, but the networking will be key with other specialist in same field.

https://www.immuno-oncologyeurope.com/t-cell-therapy

09:35
Anti-FLT3 CAR T and Bispecific Antibody Therapies for Effective Elimination of AML and Conditioning for Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation

“ Vladislav M. Sandler, PhD, CEO & Co-Founder, Hemogenyx Pharmaceuticals
Relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia (R/R-AML) has a poor prognosis even with hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) transplantation. Surface expression of FLT3 in leukemic cells and in HSCs provides an excellent opportunity for the development of targeted therapy aimed to eradicate FLT3+ R/R-AML and facilitate bone marrow conditioning. We have developed chimeric antigen receptor modified T cells (CAR T) targeting FLT3 and a humanized bispecific antibody (CDX) that recruits T cells to eliminate FLT3-expressing cells.”

I also note John Maher from kings college’s slot (day2) may be interesting

https://www.immuno-oncologyeurope.com/t-cell-therapy#Day1

Usual caveats

Trek

“ "The good news is there will be greater interest in countries that already have the resources to replace Russian gas and Africa is in a very good position. We're going to see more investment," she says.”

They’re (journo’s) catching up!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-61334470

Usual caveats

Trek

“ "The good news is there will be greater interest in countries that already have the resources to replace Russian gas and Africa is in a very good position. We're going to see more investment," she says.”

They’re (journo’s) catching up!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-61334470

Usual caveats

Trek

Doesn’t matter how you look at it the chart here is bearish and at best neutral. Question is is it the bottom. I have sold and rebought lower several times now to improve my average. Only ever 50% at a time though leaving half in just in case.

However, following the excellent results/update and in particular the cash confirmation I am now sat patiently fully invested.

I wouldn’t say it can’t go lower from here of course it can but I think the anticipation of news soon will at least afford some support.

Given the macro though and risk off it will take something special for buyers to flood in.

The US looks to be set for a bounce this week with some big retailers reporting and also housing data. Both should be economic highlights but no idea if it will stabilise US markets.

Then there is Sweden and Norway and the Putin reaction, hopefully common sense with prevail.

Anyways point is it’s likely that money is on the sidelines not just for here but across the board particularly for small cap companies. So many share prices bar the odd exceptions are at or near +1year lows.

Let’s hope our Vlad is the one that releases some exceptional news soon. Money is always available for a ‘bargain!’ or an exceptional special situation!

Usual caveats

Trek