Member Info for TrekMadone

I have traded my average down here below 1 but not risking anymore sell buys. Spread has gone out making it difficult and we could have further news soon.

Some folk selling in the 7’s, I get the frustration and the itch to cut losses but if the SP is down because of seed investor selling then surely buying with a low 8 or a 7 is the move. Unless of course ops are not going to plan. That I doubt as all the talk has been positive and about spending the money wisely to improve efficiency.

I guess lots of differing views are what makes a market and atm it’s the sell side that has had control. Surely this is the bottom now though.

Things can change in a blink

Usual caveats

Trek

I have had a reply to an email, again reiterating non dilutive route to finance. Must say the IR side is pretty good insofar as getting back to investors re questions. Both of mine have had prompt replies.

I think there will be a vid soon but atm there really isn’t much over and above what’s already in the market. The points raised by RO can be gleaned from the last RNS apart from the permit proceeding ok. This would be de facto as any issues would have to be notified so we therefore assume all’s well. Nonetheless, it is great that communication channels are open to all and reassurance has been shared.

We can hopefully look forward to funding news soon as per RNS 30th March “ Further announcements regarding the Proposed Fundraise will be made as soon as practicable”

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Been quite a stressful few days for investors with the wider market volatility and macro concerns. Hasn’t helped here with a few days of selling but this on balance has recovered well with investors stepping in this afternoon to pick up stock at around the technical support of 44p after another bottom test of the low 40’s. Incidentally on the 1 year each time it has tested support the SP has gone on to rally strongly before pulling back. IMO it’s just needed the news to keep the momentum going but it hasn’t arrived quickly enough.

If we can hold around these levels then it can still gradually move up in anticipation of news. Resistance is 52p, 70p and 75p so there is plenty of room for upside even within its trading range.

If the past rally’s are an indicator then any big ticket item news will really shift the SP and Q2 is ticking away now!

But the dips and tuck away. That’s what I have been doing for must be over a year here now.

Good luck with your investments

Usual caveats

Trek

Well I wish I could buy more. This sp could prove a steel given news flow due this year. Risk is to upside imo. This has been through 80p this year so the sector pullback now seems well overdone here especially given so few shares!

Hoping to time sale PHNX shares following a good bounce for a final top up here.

Good luck with your investments

Trek

Agree I picked more up under 220. Will make 1 more buy later then that’s it for me here.

This can turnaround pretty quickly. Higher rates and recent market volatility should bode well for income here. Market just wants to see the numbers. It’s same at Cmcx where I have split my investment across.

Usual caveats

Trek

A grabbed some at 579, 580 after tax and fees having exited previously at 620. Also managed to bag both of the last divi’s here. Been a traders dream this one as lots of liquidity and often a tight spread.

Going to sit now for the August xd and see how it goes. Chart showing 630ish resistance. Buying around 600 should protect one from the divi drop. Getting below 600p looks like a bargain imo!

Usual caveats

Trek

Managed to grad 2 x 1500 shares at under 193. Sp been all over the place this morning. Was much more expensive for 3k in one go! Again!

I was concerned I may have missed the boat to add ‘cheap shares’ in time for next two close together divi’s!

Usual caveats

Trek

Told ya!

Shhhh!

Usual caveats

Trek

unvrkw,

I agree but surely for that narrative to play out one is better positioned in the US. De-globalisation, Keynesian infrastructure spend, security of supply etc.

I flipped my profits here into PXC. Pretty much based on macro and postcode. No divi at PXC though yet and CAML is a great company. Secure divi, expanding resource etc but peeps selling coz they think it will be cheaper tomorrow and Finland is hiking the risk premium.

All my view.

Usual caveats

Trek

Quite likely. I have had to break trades down to 1k before. Check my posting history here. I only pay £3.99 a trade with ii so it often costs in for me as the ask can be elevated for larger purchases esp if you go above the EMS.

Usual caveats

Trek

It’s a boring divi stock. Even the management are trying desperately to change its perception and attribute more realistic SP value. Look at the majority holder and the last statements it’s all there.

As I have said before we trade on a NAV discount and a healthy forward yield akin to an alternative energy ETF. There you pay annual fees for the same sort of nav discounts for someone else to run the pf.

Here you have assets in Europe and America’s, 20 countries! So you get diversity there and also none in UK which helps, especially if the govt change the terms for a windfall tax from North Sea to all uK energy!

You also benefit from fx tailwinds and a divi at 1.9x cover on my last calcs. Also 10% yoy increase makes it inflation ‘proof’.

Only a small amount of the pf is coal. Most is renewables. Even got us a ESG B rating which puts us on the insti radar but coz the stock is pretty illiquid you can’t really by in mass.

That’s why so many small trades as MM’s try to generate liquidity and manage the price.

Oh and the company IS growing, its debts are per assets so that protects the wider pf. It also has a pot of cash for aquisitions or a special divi and costs are passed on to consumers.

The divi is quarterly which has meant several times now when it goes xd the SP hardly moves! Unlike e.g. DLG, LGEN or PHNX of late which saw the divi and extra come off the SP.

So what are you missing. Nothing. Only that there is value to be found in these markets if you run you own numbers and have your own convictions.

Some other high divi payers for you to research … CMCX, JIM, SYNT, SEPL and PHNX all pretty good bets at their current SP’s! But GLO is my fav!

Usual caveats

Trek

Yep I concur it looks like panic sells. It’s not to be unexpected given the wider market. If someone has been a very early investor here and have lost elsewhere they may just be balancing the books and calling it a day.

I got my 100k shares here now and although underwater I am focusing on the price points of resource upgrade, additional permitting (remember we have many already as own land) and finance and then we get to mine where we have only proven 1% of resource in a mining positive juro.

Then we get to the deeper sulphides! Upside could be huge!

Been here before with stocks where you have to average in as best you can over time and then hold as long as the story is in tact which it is.

Good luck with your investments

Trek

Hi Hydrogen,

World class is a pretty difficult term to pin down. Top 10%, costs, grades etc lots of interpretations on google

But anyways this is if you add them all up! …Lol!

Itsyou,

Yes see what you mean. They have extended the strike and again by looks. I have to go out now. I was trying to find the original greenstone strike lengths from RNS’s can find it. May be in the align note will look again later.

Usual caveats

Trek

“ 2,575km strike length - was this expected?”

It’s part of the 10000m extension.

22 Dec 21 RNS

‘ · A regional 10,000m RC campaign on the broader Prospecting License, both on the recently identified Southern Mineralised Zone ("SMZ") as well as on other identified targets.“

Imo, grades are more than commercial but it’s the thickness that is outstanding!

Many miners quote these grades below 1m thick. The thickness of deposits here is world class!

Usual caveats

Trek

Previously it’s been a tax on North Sea producing assets. I was concerned as I hold GLO for income. It is an alternative energy provider that is London listed but has no UK producing assets.

Also you have to factor in North Sea energy companies that may not even be paying tax due to the huge investments required.

It’s just another ill thought case of political electioneering. What are they going g to do next year and the year after. One minute it’s penalise business for ESG then it’s produce more HC’s.

What about my pension. I rely on dividends. Not a complaint just an observation, others will be in the same boat.

Our government’s don’t think beyond the next vote!

My view fwiw. We should have a huge sovereign wealth fund. Then the government can enjoy business growth and pass on the dividends and dividend tax to the country year after year and have a say without having to step in and fk things up!

Usual caveats

Trek

Well done myboy, wish I had done the same in retrospect.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a sell off once the divi lands now.

Could be a buying opportunity for the brave. All those allegedly short changed insti’s should mop up the share sales! We’ll see lol!

Not sure what to do with mine as I sold my ORPH at 23p ish from memory and haven’t bothered to research these since then. My divi shares were supposed to be worth 4k at the start!

Do I run with the money left or top up later. Guess we’ll see how it goes.

Just don’t anyone try saying they were freebies. Far from it. It took punters a lot of research and risk to land this kick in the balls!

Usual caveats

Trek

Copper price in plan is fine. Check out the PEA $3.6/pound for years 1-7, tolerance +/- 10%.

For interest Au is not factored in in years 1-6, that’s not the model but years 4-10 it’s 1825 $/oz.

I have been through the commodities and my only call out as posted before is perhaps Ag being a bit high mostly because it’s more volatile but then it still doesn’t factor in until year 4 so theoretically by then the mine could be paid for.

When you look through the plan you can see it’s really set on the under promise side. There is so much flexibility in the heap leach situation to bring forward the PM’s. It also, obviously, understates the expo upside for growing the NI 43-101 resources.

Imo the objective of the PEA is to set out a clear low risk case for cash.

Year 1 forecast…

$90m net revenue, $56m EBITDA, $43m post tax cash flow that allows $52m pre-production capital cost : less than 2 years payback!

This gives a forward runrate, commodity price flat of +$800m revenue based on current M&I resource of 172000t Cu equivalent that’s $1.36bn, plus $616m inferred. So that’s a relative low recovery with no expo upside in 10 years!

For sure there are details missing from the plan, mainly the financing terms which looks like it will be over 10 years. Probably as the lender will want NSR exposure and who can blame them with these economics.

As I posted before I see the finance as being a win win with more than reasonable terms for the mine and a relatively ‘low risk’ asset based loan for the lender. That would be similar to the modelling used by APF where their model is to get a fixed return with a royalty based upside but all the inflation and operational risk sits with the mine. It’s a proven alternative model to death by a thousand warrants, endless dilution and consequential share price ‘manipulation’ with the short selling and forward selling of stock that one becomes accustomed to in smallcap mining!

Anyways it’s all going to fall into place here pretty soon enough and because of the ADR structure any US buying means a round number equivalent deduction of physical London listed shares. So when/if the finance is done this will move significantly macro permitting of course!

Good luck with your investments

Company presentation

https://phoenixcopperlimited.com/documents/CompanyPresentation/20220215_Phoenix%20Copper%20Limited%20Presentation.pdf

Commodity prices and graphs

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

Usual caveats

Trek

NT to buy any amount live on ii atm

Trek

Hi Alwaysone,

I don’t know much about AfriTin other than it’s Namibia and picking up on themes…. Well centre stage De-globalisation!

That seems be be the protectionist stance being pursued by the US, the West and China for that matter!

For sure there will be other miners out there that can probably beat PXC on some numbers or another but I wouldn’t underestimate the power of the postcode.

We are US based and close to non dilutive finance.

Have only explored 1% of the resource footprint and yet the mines pay back in 2 years at a lower Cu price than today + there are other metals. Also the BoD have done it before and in the US so know the permitting and secondary round. They view it as ‘straightforward’

Then there is the ESG…. Having a railway that uses the full carts to lift the empty ones and at the same time generate electricity to a surplus for the plant so it’s fed back into the grid is pretty innovative! Add that they have spent well over a year on biodiversity studies, water management, social economic impact assessments etc the ESG here is as good as it gets.

Anyways there is lots here to make this investment so compelling including the fact that many staff (I don’t know how many) have moved house to Idaho ready for the mine development.

And today we get an invite to meet a congressional delegation.

Just need the final permits and then finance and this will be on the road to production.

Not without risk but there has been enough solid hints. So much so that this is now my highest conviction buy with a significant position here built up over the year and anyone buying now will get in below my average but I am not selling anything certainly this year and intend to hold a core position for later income.

Good luck with your investments

Usual caveats

Trek

Note they met in Washington DC. I guess that would be by invitation.

Two ‘local’ senators on the same page with the need for security of domestic supply. US mining, US jobs, US infrastructure spend, innovative ESG.

Not exactly are hard sell is it!

Usual caveats,

Trek

“ Trekmadone ... does that imply that this is the lowest price on the free market and a good buy price?”

Hi Mrindia,

It merely indicates that there has been some liquidity here. I follow lots of shares and the MM’s often ‘close their books’ during a weak market to maintain some share price order irrespective of the EMS else prices would dip disproportionately and spreads would be even higher.

That means you have to send it to them to execute at best which means you don’t know what the sell price will be. If you put a limit on the order may just sit there.

Some folk only look at their perceived value of a company in isolation but you also have to factor in the market appetite for your stock coz without buyers it doesn’t matter how good the offering is!

Today, well this morning anyway one could sell 500k on the countdown which indicates someone is happy to take some stock on board at this price. There was no problem buying though.

However, Friday and other days in the past you have had to chance your arm by dealing at best to sell and chance the spread!

The house mostly wins!

Usual caveats

Trek