Member Info for TrekMadone

Had a change of heart and sold here. 300p going is significant. If it closes below we could be going back to 270 next. Some folk don’t use TA I put it in the mix and SP has turned weak. Now watch it turn! Lol!

Also I needed the cash for elsewhere.

Small profit and divi in the bag no need to leave cash on risk here. That will do for now.

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Trek

It’s fine iPhone. I sold a load probably nearly a year ago now and have been buying back in recently. It’s not a fan show although I rate the company highly it’s about making money. I just think Matt Hall has expenses. The directors here are not on a gravy machine and their options are at 200p which imo we will see again here soon.

Finals in August are the next real catalyst.

See how the SP here is played on low vols. up 6% now lol!

I will be blue soon again at this rate!

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Trek

Sorry 3.75p warrants are April 23, just in case I panic any ECR investors!

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Trek

ID, yes tick tock!

Hi Greg,

I get the conversion. My point was I would have sold a percentage to provide capital for the warrant conversion. If you were in at say .75p and sold earlier at 1.5p you have taken your money out and can then reinvest albeit at a higher SP but the risks should be less. A higher price over time normally equates to more operational progress which you pay for with a higher SP.

Lots of HNW individuals that take part in placings aim to get their cash out or a percentage of it as a priority. That reduces risk and you have more options around when to reinvest on the open market or via warrants albeit the warrants are timebound.

It may explain why no TR1’s with selling. Just folk managing risk with collective small %’s but then that has a knock on effect on the SP.

News from the likes of ECR today can actually help us. ECR have 27678195 warrants owned by Shenyang at 5p that expire on the 16th June 22. Their 24-Feb 22 warrants are burnt and their 3.75p 9-Apr-22 warrants are some way off the money. This illustrates that there are no guarantees warrants come into play in mining hence many derisk when opportunities afford.

Incidentally, and not a plug for PXC, but I would recommend investors here read todays RNS from PXC. It is an innovative bond financing package. I say so to get a read across for possible options for GCAT. RM said they would look at alternative financing. PXC have appointed 2 UK and 2 US brokers to sell the bonds. It will be interesting to see if it gets away!

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Trek

Indeed and I just watched the vid with Adam Jones as I was a previous ECR holder. For sure the results are good and looks like they will track down some alluvial gold but there is still a heck of a lot of work to do before they can cost benefit a mine. The anticline is actually proving to be rather complex and that’s not taking anything away from the excellent progress ECR have made.

But why buy there when we have a 20m capex head start and a producing mine. ECR ahead on the postcode and juro but that only really benefits when you are digging.

Also as is beginning to transpire Kenya and TZ are becoming more business friendly and defo more so than the North Sea! It also helps with having Dan on the BoD. Imagine if ECR signed an ex cabinet minister as a NED. You get the point.

So I bought more here! Now my second largest position!

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Trek

Has anyone calculated the sustainability of the divi across the increased shares?

I am assuming it can be absorbed as the last divi went up and costs are pretty much fixed with quarterly revs of 4.7m. The impact of 0.7p on an extra 57m shares for the next quarterly divi though is not insignificant at 400k.

Some of the book may be already sold as royalty which would obviously immediately yield but it’s difficult to work out the cash position.

Interested in any views as I am starting to build a position here for income following the huge placing.

Good luck with your investments

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Trek

Results due tomorrow 9th June according to google finance

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Trek

Wow! That’s a £48m GBP raise or equivalent to 80% of our MCAP!

Can you imagine the impact of a dilution of a placing of that magnitude on the SP!

The upper and lower limits are also akin to of covering their position with a hedge on the copper price! That would also cost millions! What a smart move!

I know companies like APF specialise in these placings.

They sound confident that they will get this away. If so it will have a stratospheric impact on the SP. We are talking a min 80% lift based on cash but in reality it will transpire to much more as you have a not one but 3 or even more financed mines!

Bring it on!

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Trek

Hi Greg,

‘ If you had warrants with a strike price of 2.5p what price would you be willing to convert them and why?’

So what price for me. Always aim for A free carry or at least much less than 2.5p!

I would sell a percentage of my placing shares to fund the purchase of the warrants. ‘Why’ to derisk my investment and protect my capital.

I doubt that was the answer you expected but if you look at the SP performance it may now make a little more sense.

Good luck with your investments

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Trek

Greg,

The question was….

“ What will the updated resource do for the sp ”

Read the question.

There are other ways of assimilating data than just the conventional pounds per ounce. I posted my thoughts as an amateur, well semi amateur, based on the data I absorb that’s in the public domain. Some is date sensitive (‘obsolete’) but in the main the content was forward looking and the predictions were still reasonably relevant.

I assume yours is a gut feel ‘ 5p by Christmas…’ and indeed you may be and I hope you are correct! Time will tell!

Good luck with your investments

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Trek

Hi Mickey,

There are lots of ways to gauge SP appreciation. Atm all of them are miles out!

For a junior company the usual P&L metrics and p/e ratings aren’t clear cut. I have looked at the range of broker notes….

VSA March 22, buy TP 4.2p, a reiteration of a previous note. It’s a bit woolly imo as it’s predicated on ‘achieving company milestones’ which could be 24k or 50k. It’s not specific enough for me but 4.2p at some point.

https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/03-22-Morning-Miner.pdf

ALIGN Feb 22, conviction buy, TP 2.73p. This is an excellent note. It provides a hybrid valuation based on discounted cashflow and a peer comparison with SHG. It also includes, Kili, Nya and Simba on a fully diluted basis with a rising MRE of 2-2.5Moz. As we know some of the SP catalyst have been changed albeit for the better imo.

https://caracalgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Caracal_Gold_Initiation_Align_February_2022.pdf

VSA’s December 21 note, buy TP 4.2p. Another well thought out note but it also doesn’t include the slight operational changes offering a fully dilutive TP of 4.2p based on the issuance of new shares to fund 2m going to 3m Oz.

The other key SP indicators are..

Listing 1p, the Feb 14 placing at 1.12p, the HNW participation at 1.25p. The RNS also spells out that there will no longer be a need for the 7th Dec convertible. That imo obsoletes part of the VSA note. Ironically it should make the TP under as there is now theoretically less dilution.

The ops update 20th May is key because it still keeps the 2m Oz kili JORC in play.

The 31 May RNS explains revisions to the TZ SPA. It indicates that the dilutive element will be little changed but rather staggered. We get a completion boost to 1.3m Oz’s.

As I am not a mining expert I look at the SP catalysts and ops updates to see how we are travelling in terms of meeting objectives.

Whilst the broker notes may be premature or optimistic I think the baseline of the recent placing which would have been sold with upside is the most immediate SP target now because the company is delivering operationally.

So I would go with 1.12p ahead of the JORC and if we get 2m-2.5m Oz the Align Note comes into play imo. Which will give a SP of 2p to 2.73p depending on the JORC.

Given the market reaction thus far I think the market will want much more to hit VSA’s TP but you never know. The POG May also have a say!

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Trek

Hi ingy,

When I last looked at IMM they were using CPI’s for Lupus. Their primary drug Lupizor was being funded for phase 3 trials. I haven’t looked at them for a while though as I didn’t like the corporate finance structure.

As for ONC and immunotherapy, we provide an immunodiagnostics service with our immunoINSIGHTS platform. I think had we had any involvement in that other than diagnostics our SP would be well north of £10 on rumours alone such is the size of the total addressable market (TAM).

That’s the beauty of ONC. We provide the diagnostics to the top Pharma’s. A bit like selling shovels in the gold rush!

Well you get the gist!

Good luck with your investments

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Trek

You often get small trades of the same volume and same time stamp or trades of various side with the same time stamp when MM’s are moving them across books/accounts.

I have seen from memory over 40 trades on GLO all the same number and all within seconds of each other. Then lots of other strange patterns. Like tens of single digit trades.

They are known as principle trades and it doesn’t matter what platform the instrument is listed on. SETS, SETSqx etc

It’s the MM role to generate liquidity but as the TR1’s here indicate the stock is being moved across UBS accounts.

The evidence points to that is what is happening. It’s the motive which is currently unknown.

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Trek

UBS AG London branch goes above 5% again!

You can see in box 4 which is only completed when the holding goes above 5%. It is then always UBS London branch.

So it looks like the London Branch is the buyer, taking the position above 5%. The shares then move to UBS group AG and they go below 5%.

Whenever the holdings go below 5% there is no additional info in the name in box 4, just that the parent companies holdings have now reduced.

They are using the Zurich office to gain an edge of the 5% notification for non uk holdings rather than 3% for uk.

I bet UBS are having a right laugh if they read this but imo it’s all smoke and mirrors with an ulterior motive to pick up ONC stock and move it on to another account(s) prior to a bid.

I am going nowhere and have actually added a few below 100p!

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Trek

A rhetorical question I hope hope Mickey.

Quite likely that at least some of those buys which have carried on from yesterday are indeed traders getting in as close to 8 as possible.

We saw the bounce off the 68 support and the 7’s pretty much clear. That indicates the bottom may well be in. Furthermore, the recent spike up to the high 8’s following the RNS gives traders a bit of confidence that the SP is indeed on the cusp of a move north.

I wouldn’t get too fixated on traders v hold and hug. Most of the charts on smallcaps, certainly over the last 2-3 years indicate that hold and hug, bar a few rare exceptions = a depletion of wealth! Particularly in mining, biotech and O&G of which I follow many companies.

That’s why I have a half and half mantra. Find a quality stock and use one’s trading skills to either keep the core position in touch with the SP during a decline and then let the core ride when the SP recovers or of course you can then run a bigger position for longer. That way you always have choices as picking the right entry is near on impossible.

All said I do have a few that I have just held. More as a result of timing my entry better.

I hope GCAT proves to be one of those smallcap exceptions as it is unique insofar as it has some tangible income!

Let’s hope this drift is over soon. Then we can introduce momentum buyers into the equation!

Good luck with your investments

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Trek

So both the last two RNS’s say…

“ UBS trading book holdings in Oncimmune Holdings PLC fell below 5% and are therefore exempt from reporting”

Just the dates vary. So I can only assume that although 3 accounts are listed, group AG, AG and AG London, they must have had 5.481239% in one which crossed below 5% on the 2nd June and 5.449688% in another which crossed below 5% on 30th May.

The previous RNS took one account above threshold…etc

Really being played this. I don’t see UBS buying high and selling low for no reason.

With little liquidity and an often a sht spread it’s hardly a short term trading stock!

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Trek

They have nearly made up for the divi already! I am still waiting for a slight pullback to add. Doh!

Very bullish move here.

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Trek

Nice ride on the bike.

Had a quick look. My orders all went through. Sell at best. I broke them down to three trades and put straight to the MM at 04:00 this morning.

Didn’t want to take a chance on NT or the failing count downs as orders often don’t get filled in heavy selling.

A punt is a punt. Sell move on. Fortunately mine was only a ‘small’ amount from profits from GLO anyways.

Now don’t get taken in by the it’ll bounce brigade…

Oversold!
Gap up!
They’re all buys not sells!
It’s nonsense!

They need cash.
There is a wall of warrants that may not now provide funds.

Now that China has secured lithium sources from SA and has upped production from easing lockdowns it’s likely the price has topped…

Here’s a view…

https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/graphite-may-emerge-as-a-preferable-ev-mineral-5-asx-players-to-watch

Here’s the lithium chart….

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium

You then have mines in Europe coming on stream and potentially a recession, inflation and supply constraints for a while yet.

Add to rates going up and it’s not a good backdrop yet for EV’s. Even with incentives as folk won’t part with cash. But the brokers won’t tell you that they have their own narrative - you have to go figure!

Then there is the rest of CLON’s pf. Read the slides against the need for cash…

The Bolivian assets are ‘in discussions’ as is Chad. Ghana although it looks more promising is on the back burner awaiting a new regulatory framework. Just look at the corporate slides before you read a BB!

https://clontarfenergy.com/

Now you decide. Do some research make your own minds up.

That’s my last post here. Hope it helps with some balance.

Good luck.

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Trek

Hi bunsenburner,

I guess from you handle biotechs are more your thing. This is akin to a phase 3 study to cure a major common disease becoming a complete failure and the company only having enough left in the pf to try and produce one half decent ppt slide!

20% down! Lol! you’ll be lucky to get back 20p in the pound!

At this SP the cash in returns for many will just be a few hundred pounds! Even if they’re lucky to sell as it will be Nt most of the morning.

I am over it. Was a punt! Brill odds and amazing risk return but was still a punt.

Had loads of these now but fortunately lots more success over the long run.

Not even bothering to wait for the open. Off out on bike in the early sunshine!

Good luck to all!

Health and happiness is always the real winner!

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Trek

It was likely 10 bags on a hit and I always expected zero on a miss. Anything else is a bonus!

As for the other prospects I stick to my earlier posts…. ‘Pipe dream’.

Peeps should research the lithium market before buying the hype imo! It’s near saturated now!

Oh well this was only a gamble for fun, nothing more nothing less - moving on

Good luck with your investments

Usual caveats

Trek