Member Info for TrekMadone

Last orders sub 100p. We are off me thinks!

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Trek

Up she goes!??

Usually caveats

Trek

We all do it Wooster,

You can swallow your pride and buy em back!.

Week before last was last orders under 60p
Last week was last orders under 70p
I would like to say this week is last orders under 80p but the previous too weeks were a tab stronger so I expect next week.

I bought 250 shares Monday lol!. It was all I could muster cash wise to use up my free trading credits for ii. So I thought fine 250 shares it is then and they are already in profit!

Would love to have bought 250k shares here even at 80p!

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Trek

Copper rise…It’s just starting…

We have been posting the macro trends data here a while now. Inventories are low. Now it’s pivoted to make folk buy futures to take what’s little left off the shelf!

‘ "SP Angel Morning View: Copper rises to $9,450/t as traders buy up supplies ahead of China reopening"

This should feed well into the financing narrative. Could be perfect timing!

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Trek

It’s just starting…

We have been posting the macro trends data here a while now. Inventories are low. Now it’s pivoted to make folk buy futures to take what’s little left off the shelf!

‘ "SP Angel Morning View: Copper rises to $9,450/t as traders buy up supplies ahead of China reopening"

CAML going to 300p imo. I note how the MM’s use the spread and try and flash drop the SP. They know what’s ahead. I expect a few are long as well.

Hi Norbert,

I have been there many a time and learnt to swallow my pride and buy back when I see an entry. Especially after selling too early! It doesn’t matter.

Just start afresh with a new position it’s the same as buying another new stock but at least you save yourself loads of research time!

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Trek

OIL….

“ Think we are in for a macro tailwind!

“ As China eases its COVID-19 lockdown policies and reopens its economy, global oil demand will hit an all-time high this year, according to the International Energy Agency.

In its first monthly report of 2023, the IEA forecasted that crude oil demand could climb 1.9 million barrels a day to 101.7 million, largely thanks to Beijing's loosening pandemic restrictions.

But that soaring demand could be met with a tightening of supply, too, the Paris-based agency said, since Russia could see weaker output as more Western sanctions close in on Moscow.

"Two wild cards dominate the 2023 oil market outlook: Russia and China," the IEA maintained, noting that nearly half of its forecast for oil consumption this year comes from China. ”

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/china-reopening-economy-covid-oil-demand-energy-fuel-crude-iea-2023-1”

Telling ya imo SEPL stonking buy under 100p. Easy 10p coming up or more if you wait.

Like I keep saying try and trade stocks underpinned by a well covered divi. Especially newbies. It gives you a cushion if you get the wrong side and time will usually reverse your fortunes.

SEPL next production figs will be a huge beat IMO. I am now at 70k shares for a conviction buy!

Usual caveats

Trek

Think we are in for a macro tailwind!

“ As China eases its COVID-19 lockdown policies and reopens its economy, global oil demand will hit an all-time high this year, according to the International Energy Agency.

In its first monthly report of 2023, the IEA forecasted that crude oil demand could climb 1.9 million barrels a day to 101.7 million, largely thanks to Beijing's loosening pandemic restrictions.

But that soaring demand could be met with a tightening of supply, too, the Paris-based agency said, since Russia could see weaker output as more Western sanctions close in on Moscow.

"Two wild cards dominate the 2023 oil market outlook: Russia and China," the IEA maintained, noting that nearly half of its forecast for oil consumption this year comes from China. ”

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/china-reopening-economy-covid-oil-demand-energy-fuel-crude-iea-2023-1

I would tip more into here but am significantly overweight atm. Any extras will be for a trade to 110 which could come soon imo.

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Trek

Been watching VOD having done so well trading it. Looking for pull back to 89 & second lot at 87. If not let it go.

Got my 10% at SAFE!

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Trek

Inflation up GDP down stocks UP!

Inflation down GDP up stocks down!

Getting the hang of this now! Doh!

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Trek

Another declaration from aster today. Picked up a few more

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Trek

Yes the fool article is correct.

The ebitda loss was £4.2m in 2019, adjusted £1.7m loss in 2020

And then there was a contingency plan which include contract overhauls. Increased bookings, technology investment and revenues actually increased…

Wind forward to 2021 and…..

“ 2021 was a remarkable year and a stellar performance that's seen the Group outperform forecasts in terms of profitability, growth and forward looking contracted revenue. Despite the turbulence of the global energy commodity market the business has remained focussed and disciplined underpinned by our robust hedging strategy. Our strategy is working well and the 'hard yards' have harvested rewards.….”

4m profit 7m cash after substantial investment (tax deductible incidentally!)

So the hard yards had been done the time to buy was actually after the 21 finals. I didn’t know about them then… but wind further forward and….

The latest guidance…

“ Excellent trading performance, with full year financial metrics now anticipated to be significantly ahead of market expectations"

“ Board expecting revenue of approximately £260m for FY 22, being a c67% annual growth rate.”

So it’s been an incremental recovery story with the guidance increasing consistently to now higher than prior to covid. Costs have come down and there is a scalable platform…

The energy costs that concerns the fool are actually back to what they were to pre covid when yu went from 200p to 1200p

You can see the natural gas prices here and overlay the YU sp…

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Likewise for Brent

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

So the question is for MFool if the company has more revenues, higher guidance, lower costs on the back of scalable technologies and the energy costs are granted lower but back to what the were when a less efficient YU was at SP highs.

Why would you wait for the results to buy?

Well actually I am glad they are coz as a hybrid trader/investor that will be good time for me to sell a substantial amount for a free carry and to follow other opportunities. Unless of course they announce a ridiculous yield!.

Sparky,

Looking that trade was likely a buy. Of course we will never know for sure. Probably the biggest clue was a late print as indicative sells are going through on the clock.

It’s the ‘aggressors’ trade that gets printed and it’s difficult to attract stock. I wouldn’t be sure if we get backwardation trades here were some sells spuriously attract a higher price! I saw that on TGA, PLUS and DCTA on their climbs.

I noticed how another pull back was short lived! Lol!

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Trek

I assume that’s a best guess re them selling out as they were below 3% or did you see a reference somewhere else.

All said the SP now is pretty much a feel good factor. When we get the next phase 1 news and orphan drug status update that’s when it should spike given little free float.

Look at AVCT today 430m mcap and progressing through a P1 proving safety and efficacy. For sure they have a potentially bigger TAM. Then looking at HEMO 37m mcap and actually behind us in terms of physical trial progression.

Two very good companies and whilst you can’t draw a comparison exactly what you can say is with a £6m mcap, already on a phase 1 trial in USA with FDA orphan drug status pending and a 510k to manage AI tech and a potential treatment for brain tumours which would be a rare drug therefore a premium & we have revenues + grants etc etc…

The point is even if Avct & Hemo are fairly valued or undervalued there is absolutely no way you can read across £6m for IQAI!

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Trek

Down again yoy but not as bad as expected. Directors/staff still happy to buy. Will exit 210 though if not before.

Just grabbing another trading nibble!

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Trek

I have taken a few out having had an excellent run from the 40’s. Like I said I didn’t want to risk the results again.

I would rather even pay more and forgo a bit of profit having been bitten here in the past.

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Trek

Oh dear that could be a problem.

Our pensions is derived from our ISA’s. Having been fortunate and taken risks with a small pot we have gown that and now our income comes from Mrs Treks ISA’s. All of mine is TXP. Neither of us have worked for many years now and are probably unemployable! Yikes!

So if they cap it at 100k what does that mean. Do I have to sell my TXP that is over 100k and every time it goes up sell more?

Do I have to do the same for Mrs Trek and remove her (our) income from a tax wrapper. We obviously would have our ‘frozen’ tax free allowance of 12600 that isnt being used as there is no other income. Then we would pay 20% tax on the small amount over that which is a huge amount on a relatively small difference.

Selfishly I can only hope it will be for new contributions.

Or would you pay tax on your ISA at over 100k so you pay income tax and capital gains tax on your tax free income. Now that sounds like the sort of fk up they would aim for. Rest assured they will fk it all up!

Of course being the Tory party they also completely overlook that companies actually need shareholders. Especially small ones that come to PI’s to raise cash. Grow, create wealth and employment for others. So there’s a disincentive!

This is the problem with misunderstood populist politics that exist to grab headlines!

Oh at least I can probably get some jobseekers allowances having never claimed anything in the past and paid considerable taxes whilst in employment! Grrr..!

Will have to get a paper round and miss Tecan’s market open!

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Trek

Got 1000p results were strong. More about showing growth in what was and awful year!

I think when the market gets it’s head around that this could go higher. A gradual climb to 1200 looks likely on TA.

I will be slicing some later as have other places to invest. This was always a 10 preventer for me which is akin to getting a good divi over a short period of time.

Bets to all.

Usual caveats

Trek

It’s across the world. You can’t politicise that. People like Gates and Buffet should be celebrated for giving it away!

“ Over the last two years, the richest 1% of people have accumulated close to two-thirds of all new wealth created around the world, a new report from Oxfam says.

A total of $42 trillion in new wealth has been created since 2020, with $26 trillion, or 63%, of that being amassed by the top 1% of the ultra-rich, according to the report. The remaining 99% of the global population collected just $16 trillion of new wealth, the global poverty charity says.

“A billionaire gained roughly $1.7 million for every $1 of new global wealth earned by a person in the bottom 90 percent,” the report, released as the World Economic Forum kicks off in Davos, Switzerland, reads.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/16/richest-1percent-amassed-almost-two-thirds-of-new-wealth-created-since-2020-oxfam.html

Like I have said before the tax system needs to change with a much higher starting point and then a ski-slope with more bands also to tax at point of sale and similar for income tax!

It’s in nearly every politicians interest to plead ‘holier than thou’ and do nothing! That’s always been the case from China to UK to USA!

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Trek

Yu what a nice surprise on returning from a chilly round. 750p TP now based on wave 3!

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Trek

Probability indicates a sell with SP’s around 12:28. If so even better! Lol!

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/YU./yu-group-plc/trade-recap?page=9

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Trek

Approx £1.81m traded. May some delayed trades / LRGS off book drop in later.

That’s up with the vols on 22/23 Dec

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/YU./yu-group-plc/trade-recap?page=32

Those two days precluded a 60p leap in SP before the obvious profit taking on 6//1/23 down to 470.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/YU./yu-group-plc/trade-recap?page=32

All pretty predictable so far. Sticking with 680 & 750 before the next pull back. The 600p resistance was hardly noticed!

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/YU./yu-group-plc/company-page

Could actually get 80p in a day at this rate!

What a ride esp for those in at the 200p lows!

Usual caveats

Trek