Member Info for TrekMadone

At last a close of +118 on the bid. Taken a whole month to get there.

It’s still following the repeat story of Dec/ju l lows but this December has slipped a bit into January.

These things are only ever an indication. But we should claw our way back to an all time high from here by the end of June before a pullback to a higher low in July.

I have improved my average here by trading a few and now have a much better idea of what to do without jeopardising income! As always you have to hold a stock to really get to know it better.

Usual caveats

Trek

Good volume here today and some folk that want out after what is just the start of a run up to funding news look to have sold a few. Means MM are happy to take on stock.

I would get selling half at 44p as that’s a 100% return from the lows and just above the recent neckline. But wtfdik! Lol!

Another view is if it gets to 44p it’s very positive and means it could go much higher.

Unless cash is needed or one sees a better offer then I would say those sells could be premature.

But differing views make a market!

I have 40p under it’s own steam!

Going to be very interesting following the TA on this one!

Usual caveats

Trek

SP has gradually recovered today albeit on low volumes. It’s still in the tramlines of wave three of the Elliot curve and no reason to think it won’t go through 750p, possibly higher before the next pull back. Then it gets silly! But one step at a time.

I got the last pullback pretty much spot on and traded it for a few extra shares.

What I really want is a clear statement of intent about a divi. Dates and metrics. I guess many others are the same. That will slow be a real sp game changer imo.

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Trek

So when he said we had Philoro we didn’t or at least he didnt double check which amounts to the same thing! Couldn’t make it up really.

Now mill end haven’t been paid as we didn’t land the finance. Nor could we dilute to raise proceeds as have reached 20%

So RM and GK were to pay from their own shares and be paid by the company but that’s also fallen through due to time and collapsed deals. Now we have an investor double loaning stock to cover Mill end.

Mill end have the warrants but in reality they probably don’t really want the equity option in case it evaporates!

So they haven’t been paid we have gold but we don’t know what the profit is after costs.

500 people to be paid and pay mill end which is being renegotiated. That means we pay more!

Philoro are not out though. They just want better terms.

The good news is we have an appointment the bad news is no clear cfo or structure still. More projects and spreadsheets, shed loads of rework because the company has been lackadaisical in the past with its math and basic housekeeping!

They basically have taken a great opportunity and nearly completely fkd it up!

If Philoro don’t offer cash ergo I don’t see anyone else doing so. Best thing imo is call Eric up at SHG and ask if he wants it all on the cheap so folks can get something back!

Unbelievable, well actually it’s not I see PUR had a similar clown in charge!

This one is for traders now to time a bounce and exit so beware.

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Trek

Can’t be that MT it’s only up 10%!! ??

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Trek

Looking at chart. POG hitting resistance and with lots of Fed news next week could see a pull back soon and profit taking on gold stocks!

A contrarian view!

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Trek

I think we have had our drop bankrupty. Ask those in at high seventies!

I think gold has now hit a resistance and could go either way at least short term. Lots of Fed news next week. Could see a lot of gold profit taking imo!

Copper is my preferred metal so have picked two. One for income CAML, just happened to be same as a few others here. V low AISC, strategically positioned, no debt up around 25% now and yields +10% and increasing.

Then my growth play is PXC. Obviously we know all about that one and I fully intend to add more when I can free up funds.

Good stock picking and as you say mixed with a bit of trading helps offset the trends the suites were mumbling on about.

I also like to look ahead for price inflexion points. You know Sp catalysts where the odds are moving into one’s favour. Likes of PXC, SEPL and TXP where I hold are classics for that. You also gotta share the risk for Sod’s Law!

We’ll see how it goes but looking perky here today!

And as you can see a good chance of selling half on a double. But imo if it doubles it’s more likely to treble!

GL

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Trek

I think tomorrow for TU but I would rather it were later as markets seem buoyant. Could rise further then ahead of news.

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Trek

I lost a bit there. Thankfully traded down and out and grabbed some profit on a bounce when it dipped below 50p. I bought and sold again a tad higher for an offset trade from memory.

Lesson is finance is pretty much everything. Then the grades and economics come in. The BoD is key as the market has too many directors that are simple FoS or just incompetent at every level of mcap!

Gosh they had some amazing grades at PUR . I thought that with the DD and money Sprott had put in there surely it would come good!

As a PI you gotta have your wits about you and I watch my top 3 like a hawk! But sometimes there’s no substitute for luck!

Off to another good start for a Monday. Seem to be a trend of late.

Catch you’ll later. A winter break beckons!

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Trek

I held AVCt from the 40’s into the 200’s and did very well here and still look in occasionally. I was waiting for the the last funding before reinvesting but when it happened I had already committed elsewhere and did want to flip.

Got this off ShareNicelyNow on the YU BB where I hold…

Enjoy!

“ JCG’s MOTA still leads the pack and has consolidated its position at the top of the leader board. The standout mover this week is Victoria College’s ‘The Wharf of Wall Street’, which has shot up to 5th place from 13th. Now, we realise that the schools are located across the road from each other, but they both hold Avacta Group in their portfolios – hmm!

As background, Avacta is a UK based clinical-stage oncology drug company, has seen its rise over 34% this year and 12.17% alone on Tuesday 17th on the back of a positive announcement that results from trials of its AVA6000 tumour treatment exceeded expectations. Great news for the company and for both teams that hold it.”

https://www.ashburtoninvestments.com/int/why-us/jersey-schools-investment-challenge

Good luck all!

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Trek

$3.1331 now. Glad we have the hedge!

“ US natural gas futures were trading below $3.4/MMBtu, closing in on their lowest level since June 2021, as soaring domestic production and high storage levels offset prospects of a recovery in demand amid forecasts of a cold spell. US natural gas production is likely to grow more than 2% this year to a record daily average of 100.3 billion cubic feet, the Energy Information Administration said. At the same time, EIA data showed that utilities unexpectedly injected 11 bcf into storage last week. Adding to the bearish tone, the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, forced to go offline in June following a fire, again delayed the restart to the second half of January, leaving more supply on the domestic market. Still, arctic weather will move into the United States next week, resulting in below-normal temperatures, which, in turn, should boost demand for heating and push prices higher.”

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Usual caveats

Trek

So GAL at £25m mcap and 29p with 24k Oz’s in production the ‘mcap will look silly’…a cautious rec from master investor…

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/commodities/galantas-gold-do-delays-outweigh-drilling-news/?mc_cid=b158eedb0a&mc_eid=418bda054f

Still very much all to play for here!

Re Philoro….funding

In the 10th Jan update RM said…

‘ "With funding secured from Philoro Global Trading AG…”

Not defending the track record but it would be odd to say they did if they didn’t in an RNS that said OCIM’s had fallen through….

But if it helps I can also talk it down as I too would like more cheaper!

Why else post over and over what we know and what the risks are without any balance. They have options to conserve cash and deliver. They 3m will go a long way just not as far as TZ.

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Trek

Thank you for the update.

I think the SP is where it is obviously because of an accumulation of selling. That has been due to a mixture of reasons notwithstanding the lack of tangible progress re funding..

Factor in a depressed mining sector and the difficulty to get capital and it’s hardly surprising the sp is where it is. Those are the ‘whatever reasons’. You also get folk like me sensing a decline and also selling to buy back cheaper which adds to the problem.

Paul DeG’s proactive interview was the first bit of meaningful comms since the new corporate ppt. Whilst it contained nothing really new in terms of on the back of ‘RNS news’ it was a very worthwhile update.

I am not running down the company as I appreciate how difficult it is but these are reasonable assumptions. Likewise I am sure that now with the macro tailwinds they will get the funding over the line.

Atm there is likely plenty of money on the sidelines that will happily pay a premium over todays SP for the surety of funding and not expose that money to higher risk atm.

If the sp goes to say 500p then you can still make a good return from 80p and have done other things with your cash since the funding intention was first announced on 11th Feb 22.

Let hope for news soon then the BB will light up as folk talk about ops the resource, gold copper & silver price, the AISC and that we have only scratched the surface!

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Trek

They have been pumping small trades through to generate liquidity to fill those large unknown orders imo.

The price on a google at the bell when you see an early dip is seldom achievable. I have tried before but the actual ask doesn’t move.

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Trek

Flying now!

Like I said 110 pdq imo.

Surprised traders haven’t sniffed this one out. The 107 pop was a clear indication of direction of travel and the brief pullback to 99.5p was the time to add. That 110 could give a clear 10% quickly imo.

Wish I was able to add more but so overweight here albeit comfortable with my investment. Adding would mean selling elsewhere. I may sell some more YU next week and chuck in here as it’s profit. They have had a cracking run but that may continue after their TU. We’ll see how it goes.

Nice to be back in the blue!

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Trek

Also waiting for a proper CFO appointment and some BoD harmony!. That imo is also a barrier to further funding.

But like I said before, things should tick along with the Philoro loan and the hill should be producing enough to run ops and make the first payment.

The first payment of 6 could also be a sp driver. Other prospective lenders may like to wait to see cashflow before committing. I know I would. And Philoro is an obvious point of further funding.

If gcat can say make 3 payments on time they may be able to loop in another loan.

Once they get a credit history then TZ can come back into play. For now it’s a case of focusing on the Hill, production and saving costs.

I m pretty convinced this will turn but the market seems quite happy to buy at 1p with a lot less risk, more data and finance secure rather than buying now.

The smart move if you really want in is probably to do it gradually.

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Trek

Yesterday Jeffries international day traded 12458 shares. Accumulating through the day and selling down towards the end.

Probably made around £620 without costs. Who would have thought they could be bothered esp given that often these things can go against you.

Then Aster bought another 1000 shares!

I think it’s still pretty difficult here to buy in any quantity. I think selling is ok as Aster will take them off you!

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Trek

I guess waiting for finals in Feb as nothing announced atm…

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/ex-dividend-date-search.py?searchTerm=SEPL

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Trek

Hi Tyke,

It’s near impossible valuing biotechs unless they have standard industrial SP metrics like pe, eps, cashflow etc it’s mostly recognition for each stage of progress and optimism around TAM (total addressable market) cos (chance of success) etc. TBH lots of it is subjective. Hence my earlier ref to AVCT, HEMO. Etc. volatility the norm!

I have done well at YU, SEPL & PAY recently spotting undervaluation and posted in advance but they are companies with lots of data. So I am not too bad at this stuff but like everyone I get caught out!

But tbh the sp here is driven by small vols of buys and sells. Even those with a 10p average could suddenly be blue in one day with the right news!

A 50m valuation is imo a fair reflection for orphan drug status but any external interest imo it likely goes higher!

If they go the phase 2 and then say phase 3 and then are successful with GaM you are talking hundreds of millions! Even with dilution. Plus if the tech helps screen and predict breast, kidney and liver cancers over 1bn mcap easily!

Now that would be silly ramping as there is a long long way to go so let’s just get that 30m mcap in the bag!

But as I have always said an investment here should just be for fun money and add a few on the dips!

Our two sophisticated investors here with +3m shares are in another league!

Here’s an analogy for you. A blue chip company solicits several ad agencies to come up with a new logo. All are anticipated to be revenue accretive…

Ad agency A spends 1m and generates a headline catch phrase that’ll move the companies image forward and charges 5m

Ad agency B spends 850k and generates a headline catch phrase that’ll move the companies image forward and exhibits 21C credentials is diverse and forward looking! They are charging 7m !

Ad agency C spends 5k on a livery rebranding idea and simple ad campaign that appeals to all demographics is flawless and virtually timeless. The simplicity is it’s strength it came from a young apprentice following an internal induction challenge. They are charging 15m.

An external agency vets the 3.

In a blind survey based on customer engagement, transferable spend likelihood, competitive advantage and just about every other metric imaginable including hypothetical returns they go with ad c by a country mile!

Unfortunately the ‘boomer’ CFO from the said company buys the product from ad agency B. He simply cannot comprehend that a Gen Z *** packet idea for a few bob can achieve what it says on the tin!

Welcome to IQAI!

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Trek

Hi Tyke,

We can only guess….

We don’t know what they paid for Blackford….

Here’s their blurb….

“ The overall global medical imaging AI field with sales of more than USD 400 million in 2021 is expected to continue growing dynamically, with an estimated compounded annual growth rate of more than 26 percent (2020 to 2026) reaching USD 1.36 billion by 2026. Innovation powered by AI is needed more than ever. Aging populations and changing lifestyles are leading to an increase in chronic conditions, such as cardiovascular disease and cancer. Consequently, the demand for medical imaging to detect diseases, guide treatment decisions and support therapy planning is growing. AI comes with the value proposition to aid diagnosis and increase the throughput of radiological examinations.…”

If IQAI get orphan drug status I think 50m would still be cheap.

I can’t see TB taking less than that. Companies spend +200m just to get there!

So even 30m will be lots of bags but I think if they are in a position to prove they are worth 30m someone else will pay more. There isn’t any other AI tech out there that I am aware of in this field at least this far along.

It’s worth having a few of these and just for about them. It’ll come!

Usual caveats

Trek