Member Info for TrekMadone

I am not in here at the moment as I have traded it not very well may I add and sold the last a few months back. However, at last some cohesive plan is afoot and I anticipate an opportunity afoot to grab some and tuck away.

It shouldn’t take too long getting to 2m although I hazard it may still take more to get a good deal.

POG tailwinds will obviously help!

May drip a few quid back into this following the next set of results and when things go quiet again.

Good luck holders

Usual caveats

Trek

Still more to come but one would think that the market has had enough evidence now to know a shallow mine is viable and the have a very good understanding of the structure.

Just waiting on the ATS feasibility now from the ops side.

Usual caveats

Trek

I still think we have a seller. The indicative trades have been min 2:1 in favour of buys as the price falls.

It’s the aggressor trades that are published so there is just a pot to pull from imo and it keeps getting cheaper!. But that said liquidity is good. Even 200k shares can be sold in one hit and not miles off the spread!

110 bottom with trading low of 107 even though I don’t like to say it that is imo worse case. All said I added again today here and at SEPL. Just think both will turn soon with China opening and expecting uptick in sales volumes.

Divi should be underpinning SP strongly. These are not DLG metrics! We have a hedged well covered divi and the next is our increased payment.

Wish I was buying afresh now!

Usual caveats

Trek

And many of those commanders recorded the tally of their own kills in their memoirs! Such hypocrisy in all camps!

I made a complaint to the BBC today. First time ever. I was sooo pssd at seeing the picture of Shamina Begum on the front page portrayed as an iconic poster girl for ISIS and fk knows how much they paid for her ‘I am not a monster story’ I wrote in and complained.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64222463

My view was around the perceived glorification of terror; her profiteering at license payers expenses. The distress of relatives of decapitated aid workers who received little or no compensation. And just her look as a fashion icon for ISIS. I was literally sickened and traumatised! I couldn’t even listen to the sounds broadcast or read the whole story such was my vehemence!

But now I feel ‘much better’ after the BBC response explaining that its investigative journalism at its best and in the public interest! The airtime and media coverage tells a whole story that is balanced bla bla!

Wtf! …. Get me Sutcliffe wnk pics next!! Or let’s talk about how tough it was for the nazis while the resistance were being tortured, raped and murdered. Let’s just completely ignore the victims in favour of hearing the perpetrators stories or just give them a token ‘say’ in the name of this BBC fking woke! Gosh they are so loosing the plot!

Don’t get me wrong I am in the camp of forgiveness and against capital punishment but there is still a price to pay and that is not glorification!

So yes if the armed forces don’t create another 20 terrorist the press will pay for those that fall through the cracks that the lawyers can’t quite keep up the hotel expenses for!

I know fair representation is a part of our democracy but it has to be proportional and not at the expense of the victim were the perpetrators benefit substantially ahead of those they have victimised. That’s surely a human standpoint!

Democracy has freedoms but freedom of speech comes with respect and responsibility. It’s not a green light to say and do whatever you want. It’s about respect of a minority within a majority and not taking the pss!

I was so upset at their response. Not for me so much but for others viewing her photo and our values of common sense!

Oh how we fk things up!

PS meanwhile the press are upset that Rishi goes private for his GP. I mean wtf! He’s a millionaire. Would you rather he and people that could afford it stood in front of you in the Gp queues meaning you had to wait longer just so they got good press!

Where is the common sense! It’s not even a story whether is Starmer or Rishi. In fact I’d be pssd if my mum couldn’t get an appt because Starmer had it!

******s!

Usual caveats

Trek

On alliance news today…..

“ IQ-AI Ltd - Jersey-based medical services firm - Reports "significant progress" in the phase I clinical trial of gallium maltolate. In addition, it is increasing its focus on accelerating the deployment of IB Clinic. IB Clinc is a toolkit of post-processing software plug-ins designed to be integrated into existing medical image visualization applications.

By Abby Amoakuh, Alliance News reporter

Comments and questions to newsroom@alliancenews.com”

Trek

House….apt!

It’s the property pf that’s led to the drop more so than the divi concern. That’s why Lgen are off more than Phnx imo…

From dlg results……

“ Further, the property investment portfolio experienced a 15% reduction in values, equivalent to GBP45 million and greater than initially expected.”

For sure though another buying opportunity for a long term hold.

Usual caveats

Trek

HH now $3.63

FY 22 hedge is 3.47 and 23 is 3.53!
FU 24 is 3.14.

That should put a line under the SP at some point!

Also Freeport terminal to open end Jan which should help exports as US have a gas surplus.

Germany and EU gearing up for LNG. Germany saying it’s ready so that should put pressure on Russian gas.

Usual caveats

Trek

This is where dummy trades can, not always, but can help. When you cant sell any and then you can sell millions into a falling SP it’s usually a sign it could turn.

Usual caveats

Trek

They, Germany and EU are ramping up their ability to handle LNG. That’s the choke.

The US is the biggest natural gas producer. Next is Russia. Once the Freeport plant opens it should help all around apart from Russia of course whose borrowings are going up now!

“ US natural gas futures were around $3.7/MMBtu, close to an over one-year low of $3.5 hit on January 6th as milder weather has delayed the wintering heating season. Also, the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, forced to go offline in June following a fire, again delayed the restart to the second half of January, leaving more supply on the domestic market. Meanwhile, the latest EIA data showed US utilities pulled 221 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended December 30th, less than market expectations for a 228 bcf drop. Still, that was way more than a decrease of 46 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average decline of 98 bcf as colder-than-normal weather prompted consumers to burn lots of gas to heat their homes and businesses.”

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Usual caveats

Trek

I always said that unless we had an RNS to the contrary we had to assume the deal was in tact. Well I didn’t expect that! As time went on I felt more and more confident.

It seems to me that, and such is the usual confusion that this is just another interpretation.

Every thing was set bar a condition which couldn’t be met in time. So because the long stop date wasn’t pushed out as OCIM refused then that could mean that GCAT were setting themselves up to hand over the mine license as they were unable to fulfil the terms in time. That would mean in effect new landlords or worse!

That condition may be regulatory, ounces or whatever. The point is it does seem yet more sloppiness on RM’s part driven by his over enthusiastic honesty that he seems to expect to see in others and they let him down which leads to nativity!

It doesn’t look like this was a very good marriage. OCIM after all their hard work were more intent on screwing us than building a profitable partnership or at least once the opportunity was there!

Thankfully RM saw it in time and I suppose at least we have something they want!

We also now know Philoro is defo in the bag as confirmation was tagged on the RNS.

I would hazard a guess that Philoro are now the most likely source of additional finance.

RM also says they have other similar proposals after noting ‘lessons learnt’ which is what points me to my earlier comments. Once bitten twice shy and all that!

I guess what we need to know now is can the funds and mine production see us through an anticipated 6 months or hopefully less until the next finance deal is set. It should be quicker if offers are genuine and we now have the scoping study and a POG tailwind.

We also could cut back on the expo and TZ to stretch funds.

I was hoping to see 1.5p end March. It think there’s still a chance of reaching that. The next forward looking ops update will be key.

Still all to play for and probably more surprises but at least we have a mine and options.

Usual caveats

Trek

Lol, just handed the MM the spread!

The 50k before is my buy. It’s not a sell not that it matters. Just a small top up with some profits from my trades at YU.

I am convinced Trev won’t sell his family and self short here. It’s probably only around 50 days to the FDA so say early April at worse. This sp could be dramatically different by then one way or another!

Usual caveats

Trek

SHG, I must agree I was a holder and been considering buying back.

GCAT, yep it has been ramped. Such a shame as they still have financing and nav higher than mcap similar to SHG. It’s the hype there that attracts fickle investors that buy and sell with not enough thought imo. I always said you have to assume the money is there until the market is told that it’s not! The story is well in tact and having taken some profits a while ago I have a target price in mind to buy and average down again! Lol!

GLO, I didn’t know questor had tipped them. They were my 2nd largest position mostly for the well covered divi from energy! KKR landed a bargain and I was fuming that then went so cheap. I sold earlier ast there was no point in holding for the divi as it came off the SP!

YU… I sold a load at 550-568 banking decent profits from the run up from 480’s. Bought some back at 502 and waiting for 450 and 400 for the next lot or not as the case may be. I still have some at 487 for the results due in a couple weeks. TA wise it seems to be setting up for an Elliot wave which is nice to trade. It restores one’s sanity when one goes well!

IQAI… shareholder update today. Says a lot and not very much. Gearing up for a sale imo. I bought a little more. I know I shouldn’t but I used some YU profits.

CAML… outstanding results today. That’s a nice little tuck away I mentioned here when I bought. Have just held that one as it’s made my income pot. Getting +10% and it looks like the divi will increase as has $60m cash, zero debt, increasing production and all capex for foreseeable is covered. Also solar farm h2 will reduce energy costs. Just the postcodes prevent a much larger investment.

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi wyn,

Re AVCT, no I am not in there. I made a transformational amount and averaged out selling the last at 120. I used the proceeds for some fun and to build a boring pension pot that pays divi income!

Still on my watchlist though and I intended to buy back after the raise which I had been waiting for but then I didn’t have funds at that time.

I am trying to discipline myself by keeping my income plays in tact and only assigning so much to higher risk as I don’t want to loose the high yield that I have achieved even at the risk of potentially gaining more!

So not pushing my luck. Boring hey!

Usual caveats

Trek

Red it’s about safety and tolerability at this phase 1…..

“ Our sponsorship of the Phase I clinical trial at the Medical College of Wisconsin Cancer Centre ("MCWCC") continues. Under phase I trials, new agents are studied for safe dosing levels to be used in phase II trials. Screening activity is ongoing and those patients who meet the study's inclusion criteria are invited to participate. Thus far, the enrolled subjects are tolerating the agent well and are remaining on the treatment. The IB Clinic suite of software continues to be used to monitor response to the agent for follow-up imaging exams and we expect more patients to be screened and enrolled.”

Usual caveats

Trek

Looks like a few bought ahead of results and now taking some off.

Cash on books, no debt, increasing production and all the next years well foreseeable future capex covered and +8% yield that may well increase. That’s pretty compelling!

On the risk side is obviously the location but there’s much worse and the local politics actually seem to be improving.

I still think this has 300p. knowing these numbers if it pulls back I will add.

Usual caveats

Trek

Sparky I think 400p is support. We are on stage two that could go to 450-400p. One of course can never ever be sure.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/elliottwavetheory.asp

I called the top of the Elliot wave pretty well. Have funds to buy a few more on the way down.

The leg back up should/could take us up through the 600p. This is following a pretty normal chart pattern.

However, one only trades a chart if the fundi’s are sound because that’s what the back stop is if you get caught the wrong side of the trade and here they are outstanding!

Usual caveats

Trek

IF they get the FDA…..

“ If granted, Orphan Drug Designation provides exclusive marketing and development rights, tax credits for clinical trial expenditures, and potential decreased wait-time for drug approval.

IB's products are used by clinicians worldwide to process thousands of neuro exams each year.…’

That is a lot of customer and pharma exposure…..

Also…..

“ The screening and enrollment of subjects continue at an outstanding pace, and follow-up visits are increasing as more subjects remain on the study.….” Is very positive….

I am of the view that with a 4m mcap should we get FDA then that could be the ticket for a sale of the company.

The costs involved and chances of getting orphan drug approval are such that we could be snapped up for tax benefits alone! This is now so undervalued even on a single product.

I am assuming that the comments around grant funding mean we still have sufficient ongoing grant funding and with the IB revenues that is still enough.

We have gone a year without raising running on funding and revs. But if more is needed then it’s over to Trev to write out some more CLN’s. But honestly in terms of number of shares and upside potential against what we have achieved which is absolutely tangible and our customer alliances v the sp downside from here I really am not too bothered.

We get cash he gets access to stock at a discounted sp. That means we are still pretty much aligned.

But I still think this could be sold if we get FDA and at a substantial premium. That’s what I think Trev and family are gearing the corporate structure for. That will mean a new home for the professors to carry on their work and we all get a payday earlier than you think!

Here’s hoping!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Wyn,

I go along with the chart analysis. All data should be in the mix.

Another data point to consider is the results end of month. Results have been a banana skin of late!

“ The Company will also report audited results for the 15 months to 31 August 2022 on or around 30 January 2023 in which it expects to report revenue of £4.2 million and losses which will reflect the incremental revenue for the additional three months and continuing operational spend at similar levels to the quarterly spend seen during the 12 months to 31 May 2022. Gross debt at 31 August 2022 was stable compared to 31 May 2022, while cash was lower reflecting the quieter summer trading months. As a result, net debt at 31 August 2022 was £9.5m compared to £8.2m at 31 May 2022.”

The guidance should look better this time with some debt retired with the placing. Gives an event to consider trading around and not too long to wait!

Usual caveats

Trek

Malcy has covered the deal in his blog, he likes it. Also going to put us in the bucket list for 200p!

I hope it’s not the kiss of death as he put DEC in as well!.

Shorting Malcy’s past tips has previously been a good move! Lol!

https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/01/oil-price-diversified-energy-touchstone-serica-and-finally/

Usual caveats

Trek

DEC going to be in this years bucket list. Going by some of his previous we better open a short! Lol!

Extract…

“……DEC has become associated with regular dividend payments which have always been in line or higher than the previous announcement and distributions also taken the form of share buy backs which adroitly take advantage of the strength of the $. The company has also become known for its M&A policy and regularly announce acquisitions made or completed which often involves updating or upgrading the quality of its credit facilities and which includes a constant grip on strictly disciplined hedging policy.….”

https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/01/oil-price-diversified-energy-touchstone-serica-and-finally/

Usual caveats

Trek