Member Info for TrekMadone

We have saved according to this paper $100m in development costs by achieving orphan drug status. Mmm hang on Trek we ain’t even worth £10m!…… That’s the point!….

“ We found that the out-of-pocket clinical costs per approved orphan drug to be $166 million and $291 million (2013 USD) per non-orphan drug. The capitalized clinical costs per approved orphan drug and non-orphan drug were estimated to be $291 million and $412 million respectively. When focusing on new molecular entities only, we found that the capitalized clinical cost per approved orphan drug was half that of a non-orphan drug.….”

https://ojrd.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13023-018-0990-4

Everything you look at the mcaps and costs are in a completely different mcap league to what IQAI have achieved! Someone else will imo take this from here and bolt on the team.

I bought the ones back I sold yesterday, just in case I needed to average down, at a higher price today. So averaged up and added more!

As an active investor I have no problem with paying more or less if the data changes. It’s served me well!

Enjoy the rise. It’s just starting!

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Trek

Won’t let me paste. New note out via email.

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Trek

My girlfriend went to the pharmacist…

She said ‘hi my boyfriend has dandruff, what can I do to help him’

The pharmacist said, ‘that’s fine just give him head and shoulders’

She said, ‘ok, what do I do with his shoulders?’

??

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Trek

I placed a limit order on ii last night to buy 2k shares at 209 max. I got 206p and 2013 shares! I mean how does that work. Lol!

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Trek

NP blue,

Appreciate heads up. I am doing some renovations and it’s been one of those afternoons! Even PXc going up and all was quiet when I left and I only have my mobile! Lol!

IQAI should go to 8p on that news. Timing caught market out imo.

I only had a managed position as could have gone either way but still happy with my holding there and may buy more Pxc now.

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Trek

Yes I saw. I don’t know how that affects a CFD long as it’s not in the money from 42p! Lol!

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Trek

Thought it was refused ! Lol!

That’s what you get when on a mobile up a ladder with cold fingers!

Still no worries plenty in and YU having a run and SEPL had good results!

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Trek

Thanks Blue,

I managed to sell a few and posted I had done so.

Was 30% up so happy to bag some profit.

Will leave the rest for next year!

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Trek

From Blueglow on TECAN.

https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/opdlisting/oopd/detailedIndex.cfm?cfgridkey=924822

I just sold some just for transparency

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Trek

City am,

Christmas has come early!

https://www.cityam.com/christmas-comes-early-paypoint-swoops-on-savings-club-appreciate-in-83m-earnings-enhancing-deal/

I have added again just 2k more left to buy to reach my target.??

Shorters still at it but follow the numbers!

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Trek

Increased position by 25% on this little pullback ahead of results. 8.8% divi is some sp support and no way is it being cut unless they announce an accretive acquisition.

Solar plant on next as well will reduce opex. All paid for!

Slipped through mr markets fingers this one imo. You do get them. YU and SEPL another two I found with solid numbers and there’s many many more out there!

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Trek

Gotta go out but the balance sheet says it all! +400m cash! + special divi!

Much more ebitda to come when pipeline completes. Market will look ahead imo! And about time!

Due a rerate imo!

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Trek

Bonker,

have a dig…

https://www.forbes.com/uk/advisor/investing/best-lithium-stocks-shares/

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Trek

If there was a sell off today I would have dumped some. History tells me that’s usually a hint!

As it happens there hasn’t been nor has there been a SP run, unless of course we have already had one!

I think of the pretty large buy at 120, £190k from memory. There have also been some indicative sells but they could have been transfers. It’s not been possible to sell or buy big volumes here. My guess is you need a MM on your behalf or it’s stock shifts.

All in all the trading is as it should be. No real indication from the market as to what tomorrow holds!

That just leaves best guess in terms of ops. We should have some surprises to the upside for output after the last set of numbers.

But importantly we have 300m cash and 300m RCF which is more than enough to cover debt and ops. The cash surplus should mean a divi increase. Then the market should note up!

Any deal just ain’t going to happen some time soon, imo that will need the politics to settle first.

So I have decided to stick! Expecting a little relief rally tomorrow and a delayed SP tick up.

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Trek

TXP recovered from sub 60p. It’s another delay, one that long term investors had expected. Only three months but that’s also optimistic imo. More like 5 months to first gas but that will likely be an amazing result! The last two months will be a drip drip of news. It’s Trinidad!

Meanwhile Royston drill could be two weeks from TD. Hence the bounce. Drill traders have grabbed the pullback imo.

Like I said 70p pretty much nailed on before TD. Very very likely higher. So now they got a punt at under 65p and can sell into the news! If you know how to play theses it’s ‘easy money’. If not or unsure like I am then trade some keep some. All said I was in TXP early so we’ll in profit which makes it easier to watch the story unfold!

Long term with the geo and assets they have, TXP are deep fking value!

Also financed with minimal share dilution and plenty of headroom if they need cash but it should be funded by existing production.

There really are that many oilies like that out there that can fund potential transformational upside from existing ops with no CLN death spiral finance!

But all said they have had delay after delay hence the SP where it is as Triny is not an easy place to do business. Also the tax system there is not the best. Those have knocked the SP and as always delays cost money.

There will come a ‘tipping point’ though.

And YU today wtf! What a rollercoaster!

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Trek

AGM all passed…

Additional lines for info….

“Acquisition Update

Following approval by Shareholders, the Company expects to complete the acquisition of certain upstream assets and related infrastructure in its Central Region from Tanos Energy Holdings II LLC (the "Acquisition") on 1 March 2023. The total consideration for the Acquisition is US$250 million, prior to customary closing adjustments. A further announcement will be made once the Acquisition has been completed.

Admission of Conditional Shares and Total Voting Rights

An application has been made to the Financial Conduct Authority and to the London Stock Exchange, and admission of the 44,231,722 Conditional Shares in relation to the Company's Fundraising (the "Admission") is expected to at 8.00 a.m. on 28 February 2023.”

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Trek

Or smell the gas that’s bouncing up +6%!

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Trek

Comments…

“ I too am delighted that TXP has now received this news that the National Gas Company will be ready to take Cascadura gas in June and so will the company be, forget the slight delay this is a truly red letter day for the company and should be seen as just that.”

https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/02/flash-blog-from-fort-lauderdale-san-leon-touchstone-i3-kosmos-eco-atlantic/

Trek

Glad I sold in advance of them.

Ops wise good progress as usual.

Balance sheet is awful but will imo turn at some point. There is just so much headway that ONC have made. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bid but for now they need to close outs some volumes to honour the revised covenant….

“ Whilst the base case scenario indicates that resources would be sufficient to cover interest and debt repayments in the near term, it also illustrates that the growth in cashflow would be insufficient to meet the capital repayments currently due from September 2023. This forecast therefore indicates a possible breach of the financial covenant in March 2023. Following discussions, IPF Partners has confirmed that, in the event of a breach and subject to certain conditions being met, it is prepared to consider a waiver in respect of the requirement to submit a compliant financial covenant.”

I intend to buy back once it settles.

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Trek

I don’t think this is a surprise to any investor here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the next date slip a tad.

It’s not the dates that are of a concern as it will happen soon enough. More that they keep on top of cash burn and the further out stuff goes the more uncertain macro can become.

Anyways I am sticking with this for the journey as it’s hopefully a v big prize!

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Trek