Member Info for TrekMadone

“ Craig Howie an analyst for broker, Shore Capital, which covers the company said: “…despite continuing to trade above December’s 54.5p placement price, and a health rebound in recent days, the prevailing share price clearly remains at a very substantial discount to our 215p/share risked NAV.”

Howie continued: “We will similarly revisit our sum-of-parts valuation following the forthcoming FY22 results, although, in the meantime we remain very comfortable with our last published risked NAV estimate following this morning’s reserves update...”

Well it’s not just the ftse that’s undervalued compared to NYSE! It looks pretty much across the board!

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Trek

Not sure they can dig their way out of this! Prigo’ gone public to save his wagner face and blame others!

“Wagner mercenary chief warns the entire Russian frontline is at risk of COLLAPSING if his troops fail to take Bakhmut and are forced to retreat….’

Hour ago…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11825261/Wagner-chief-warns-entire-Russian-frontline-COLLAPSE-troops-not-ammunition.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

I have also noticed the rhetoric softening. Just hope it doesn’t get silly if they sense defeat. That could actually be the worse time!

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Trek

I bought back at around 488 today. 2 lots.

Have set sell orders for them both for tomorrow. 498 and 509. If they go they go and I will look to buy again. If I do I do if not no problem.

The idea is to keep my core holding and get a lower SP average.

You can only really do that if you don’t mind holding the stock which I don’t as it’s an income play for me.

My average is now 501.44 down from +550. I have more shares but am pretty confident of getting back to my core position and once it’s blue I will leave it.

It’s been difficult as I am doing the same with DEC atm where I have got down from +120 to around 105 so having to move between the two.

My other holdings are all up with a nice cushion. It’s just these two I have to work at.

Hopefully they both turn soon and I can have my cash back to cover my other positions but if not I get the income.

If you want to trade the fringes you need to make sure you factor in the spread, the tax and trading costs. I only pay £3.99 a trade so it’s a tad over 0.5% + spread which can vary.

I do it with lots of little trades rather than waiting for bigger moves.

My income pf now yields 9.76% and I hope to get it back above 10% v soon when I finish at DEC where I intend to feed in what should be good profits from YU to provide me with additional income.

Good luck

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Trek

Malcy on reserves…

“I can add nothing else, this very good report is just the start and I am confident that Touchstone is going to be a substantially bigger company as they explore, develop and market their fine portfolio of hydrocarbon assets.”

‘ https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/03/flash-blog-genel-iog-touchstone/’

For me at $60 barrel and the raise they have plenty of cash from legacy to get Casca up and running.

The market will soon come around to seeing that the expo can be funded from ops. So say the SP is 100p when they test Royston then the downside risk should be 70p.

And once Casca is up we will get another much higher floor.

So in theory we should have some ops SP protection that will improve to the upside going forward.

Well that the theory but I guess logic counts for zilch nowadays!

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Trek

I sold a load today and bought most back cheaper. I am getting so good at averaging down! Doh!

Still it only really works for stocks underpinned by the divi and financials and of course if they eventually come back up again!

Gas down 14% atm but DEC was higher at a lower gas price even with the extra shares. Not sure why the price is this low as another cold snap is forecast in US and Freeport should be up 100% soon.

It’s as if DEC has wanted to test 100p again no matter what!

Still I am working my average and hope that this time next year the SP will be well over 100p and this has proven to be a great long term income buying opportunity! Like my insurers that I don’t really have to look at anymore. Just looking forward to that day here!

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Trek

A rush into the close. Tuesdays/Thursdays are fav! Lol!

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Trek

Going to have to move it up soon. Not enough sellers and the phantom pull backs are being bought.

Bit psd really I had some buy orders set lower and they were just ignored by the MM! Have had to add manually.

Overweight again to slice into results!

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Trek

Got my divi in ii account. May see some drip buys today. Waiting for a pullback though to have another trade. If it moves up I am happy to stick so in a pretty good position here at long last! I think! Lol!

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Trek

Just an observation. I always thought the post counter was a sort of market enthusiasm health check. There were days when your watchlist pretty much all had posts on by 0800. Especially winter!

Now it’s so quiet and perhaps none more so evident than over at GGP. There was a time that there would be 50-100 posts there within an hour after an RNS!

Today 7!

Perhaps even the posters have moved to NYSE! Yikes!

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Trek

Yu group, started its run early last week results due 14th March. They will be a significant beat. Chart is a classic bathtub. It’s hit all my trading targets and I have nearly doubled my money on trades there.

I am targeting a free carry on the 14th March. Expecting +850p before the day which is the rim of the tub and intend to exit at over 1000p selling into the news.

Will let the rest ride as addition to my income pot!

There gotta call it in advance else you get all the charts and hindsight bllox.

Others may fancy a punt. Left field and black swans aside it’s not that often you get one this good. The news has already been telegraphed to the market and there is only 17m shares to chase. Oh and about 6 posters on the BB so you don’t need to filter the usual trash! Lol!

All said my first trades today will be in PAY where I am still working my average. Am back to core holding now at around 505p with cash on the side to hit it again so I hope it drops and bounces!

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Trek

A few from my watchlist with RNS today,

LND closed a sale of lithium assets, about time they did something accretive! Should be a positive day!
IMM got a deal with their peptides. Still ever promising! Expect a little bounce
IOG spud Blythe. Don’t bother though UKCS is just too dodgy fiscally avoid!
HZM nickel contract awarded they are just plodding on doing it right. I wish o bought at 91p but can’t do it all!
GGP results out. So glad I sold out in the 20’s from single figures and still am!
TXP I was surprised by their reserves report to upside. Their ‘legacy wells’ did better than expected. Should put a line under sp.

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Trek

I am actually surprised at the improvements. Even without coho coming on by the skin of its teeth I thought the legacy wells have done rather well!

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Trek

Hi Tro,

Yes I agree re gas futures. You can see the calls are going up here…

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.quotes.html

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Trek

Ticking up now. If often happens that a sp drops below the placing price. Well on London anyway! And then returns above it.

Could be that under 105 is a great price!

May see some selling after 105 for obvious reasons but it could be the next support v soon.

Mcap at 103.25 is exactly 1bn on google!

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Trek

Up 3.3p now on sod all vol! Can’t be much stock around.

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Trek

Not bothered what Zak says. Pretty much all his charts show stocks about to go up but the opposite is what has happened!

Wonder why?

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Trek

I picked up 5k today. Will add more later. Just trying to flip trades but this little pullback may be short lived imo.

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Trek

Well said Gacky,

Most folks especially PI’s don’t get the association of share price with fundamental value. They keep looking at how far a price has come and get concerned that they may be the wrong side of the next pullback rather than seeing the opportunity.

I have quoted TGA before as a case in point which I rode successfully. It went from 160p to 1800p from JUL 21 to sept 22. The more rapid moves came later on when the insti’s had the hard numbers under their noses!

Hoping on now even at a likely 900p is ahead of the hard data that will trigger serious insti buying. But there just isn’t the stock available here!

Hence there could be some wild upside swings giving PI’s the opportunity to very likely slice some at a much higher sp than 700p. Then you have a nice cushion with most of your cash out or you can run with a bigger pot.

That’s the next decision imo not if I should pay 800p.

As always only put in what you can afford.

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Trek

Lol! Had a good trading week this week mate +£20 up! They don’t all go like that though!

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Trek

I am absolutely unfazed by the prospect of any CLN’s. Now that’s a first! Here is different to the likes of a mining stock where the CLN is held by a third party. So they force prices down to get a good conversion.

The price here is already down. The company has gone over a year without raising cash because it has revenues from the LA hospitals and a substantial NHI grant. Now that they have orphan status I don’t see the grant being pulled, more like being increased!

TB has said he will provide funds if needed. They haven’t needed any for well over a year and that’s if you count the issue of a handful of shares to the Mayo Clinic in Feb 22 at 6.41p as a raise!

The next funds they need assuming they go to phase 2 will be on such a significant level that IQAI pretty much couldn’t do it themselves and defo not for a P3. We are talking 10’s of millions of pounds!

Now that would be some dilution lol!

Nah. It’ll all be boxed up with some instructions and sold with a top team for I reckon a MINIMUM £50m price tag!

The tax benefits and orphan drug status when transferred could mean a buyer actually gets it for free. But with the knowledge they will need to put at least the same in again to move it through clinical trials.

Just my inexperienced optimistic rose tinted view!

We’ll see!

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Trek