Member Info for TrekMadone

There she blows 40p!

That may attract a few buyers. It’s how it works. Some may not buy in the 30’s but will wait for a retest/ break back above trend before buying expecting another run at 46p. Others don’t force news they wait and wait until what seems like the last minute!

Gonna be a very interesting few months here one way or another. That’s for sure!

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Trek

So payment 10th May or there abouts…

“The exchange rate for the Naira or Pounds Sterling amounts payable will be determined by reference to the relevant exchange rates applicable to the US dollar on 17th April 2023 and will be communicated by the Company on 18th April 2023,” Seplat said in a note.

https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/585404-global-oil-windfall-shoots-seplats-revenue-to-historic-n404bn-but-profit-shrinks.html

I think there could be a little run ahead of divi seeing as it’s such a bumper! Hence also a trading opportunity but somehow I don’t think the whole 7.5C will come off. It could be that there is ops and/or deal news around the same time. (I note DEC didn’t discount the full xd albeit one could argue the price dropped in advance.)

Could make any sub 120 buys here quite profitable.

Usual caveats

Trek

Key Insights

Diversified Energy's estimated fair value is UK£1.66 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

Diversified Energy is estimated to be 39% undervalued based on current share price of UK£1.02

The US$1.66 analyst price target for DECis comparable to our estimate of fair value.

Does the March share price for Diversified Energy Company PLC (LON:DEC) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value.

https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/diversified-energy-company-plc-lon-061320331.html

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Trek

Sliced 2k at 501909.

Not as high as I was hoping but it’s profit on my sub 500 buys. May or may not feed back in as I was overweight here. See how it goes.

Just a thought on the divi. That wound enough cash for aster to cross 30% if they so wished. But I expect they have plans independent to the divi.

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Trek

SP7, this stock has been a gem to trade. I have nearly doubled my money on my trading pot here but alas I think the best of those days are behind us for now as it looks like it’s on a run into results.

The market has a pretty good indication of what they are and the next trade is potentially selling into the news and hoping to catch a pull back again. But it’s getting riskier now as more investors spot quality and are looking for buy and hold stocks.

I may have a go with another top slice though. Will see how it goes.

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Trek

DUKE must say I thought they were too risky with a hawkish interest rate environment and higher business energy costs especially for their glass manufacturer but they seem to be doing ok. Could claw its way back to 40p

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Trek

Wake up Tro that’s last years!

Trek

There is very little to add to this excellent drilling report, ‘substantial sands in the Herrera’ and the company are correctly remaining cautiously optimistic as the case and prepare for testing. I am also impressed by the operational feedback, a new team with new kit which has brought the well in ahead of schedule and within budget.

My optimism for TXP as a potentially very exciting stock for this year isn’t wavering and while it is still very early days this is a big well by both Touchstone and Trinidad standards so my confidence remains.

https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/03/flash-blogdec-touchstone-san-leon-angus-scirocco-hunting-rip-john-coulson/

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Trek

His comments only….

“ DEC confirm the Tanos deal which cost a net $244m, brings 17/- boe/d and PDP reserves of ~25 MMBoe (152 Bcfe) and a PDP PV10 of ~$312 million. The RBL facilities have been redetermined with an uplift in the borrowing base up $125m to $375m which is also smart.

There has also been some magic worked in the hedging department, including the acquisition of hedges of ~60% of 2023 production at an average floor price of ~$3.80 per Mcf which complements the DEC current 2023 hedge portfolio of 80% of production at ~$3.65 per Mcf. This is exceptional when you look at current prices and makes the springboard to higher cash flow and the ability to cover big dividend payments and debt repayments achievable.

So, to confirm, another cracking deal, well funded and cash generative and at this price the smart investors should be climbing aboard for both long term income yield and capital growth.”

https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/03/flash-blogdec-touchstone-san-leon-angus-scirocco-hunting-rip-john-coulson/

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Trek

I always take the cash rather than leave it to chance.

Samson reduced short again yesterday

https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B02QND93/

I expect others have but as we know from the form 8’s they are below the thresholds.

If this moves up I would expect aster to buy more heavily. Go to 29.5 and then negotiate.

Liontrust have been reducing. They may back aster

Could very quickly get busy here and if not. +7% yield well covered and new incremental divi policy!

Traded my way to a tad under 505 now!

And it’s a quiet BB. Just goes to show eh!

Usual caveats

Trek

It’s fine if it’s a much bigger pie as it all works out. The problem is the market wants to see that it is indeed a bigger pie and that the numbers align. Then it will reward the SP. Market tends to be skeptical first especially in UK. So imo we need production results under our belt.

But not a bad result today. The excellent ops RNS drew a line under the sp imo. Could have gone to 97 easily else.

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Trek

WtF PAY went through 505 and my order didn’t get filled. It times out today so I will look in the morning as often it does a silly spike early doors. Strong bounce though. If it spike I may sell buy. See how it goes.

YU and TXP also strong run and MNG hardly surprising it pulled back, I hope no one chased it. Was always looking dodgy.

PXC looking interesting.

Been a good week with one more day left and broke 80 today! Thanks to the faster course.

Just read some of the wbi RNS’s….no I shouldn’t! But yep looks promising!

I am sticking to mostly income now bar a few stocks I know very well.

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Trek

I was expecting a move above 40p this week. Thought it would have been earlier but tomorrow will do!

I am actually not expecting completion of finance news. I think we may get a ‘warm feeling RNS’ that says the money is on the shelf and will be taken now after the ATS results which must be close.

Then they can get the last of the permits. Then bish, bash, bosh! All at once!

Domestic polymetallic mine on the way imo…

Just sitting now and waiting for the news.

Doing nothing can be difficult or trade a few while you wait but I think that the best of the trading opportunity is done now.

I am also in YU, nearly doubled my money there while waiting. High volatility, but no way is it now the time to sell for another slice and reentry. Best opportunities have passed. Same as here imo.

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Trek

PAY looks to have bounced. I have a sell order for 2k shares at 505 which is a fraction above my average now so would be in profit with the sell. Will then feed it back in if it goes back below 500 and repeat. If not I will stick.

It’s how I have got my average down from 550 ish to 505 albeit I had to use some extra cash to buy at 490 and sell at 508 on the last run.

Trying to get below 500 and will then let it go as it’s one of my long term income plays.

PAY has held up well in market down days and is a quarterly payer which I need for income.

Usual caveats

Trek

I am back in 100% now. Had half for the divi and half for the dip.

I think it will turn soon. 97p or 105p neither here nor there. Weather also helping and Freeport 100% end of month.

I don’t see the buy back resuming as from memory it stopped at agm so would need another mandate but can’t be ****d to check. Happy to buy now.

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Trek

Just a thought. 260 and investors keep next divi? Now that would be sweet!

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Trek

Absolutely huge volumes at MNG look at the trades count, 1603 . They are usually behind Phnx 94 & LGEN 380!

Wtf!

Someone defo buying and others just following the money imo.

I’d still be v cautious though if buying afresh.

Usual caveats

Trek

Absolutely huge volumes at MNG look at the trades count, 1603 . They are usually behind Phnx 94 & LGEN 380!

Wtf!

Someone defo buying and others just following the money imo.

I’d still be v cautious though.

Usual caveats

Trek

MNG & YU hit 1 year highs…sweet.

YU has legs MNG is takeover rumours so I wouldn’t jump in at this level now.

Any looking in and followed the TXP tip to buy at 65p and have the option to sell at +70p has now got a good return for two weeks work! Around 13%. .But I am in that one for the duration.

DEC xd has soaked up the divi now, good deal update from Rusty to stop the s/p. Income chasers buy now imo for 14% yield! Go 50/50 incase it dips briefly below 100p.

PAY, I have a large position there. Am trading it using the data I got from the 8 forms. They have now stopped as the aquisition has completed. Aster, a proxy 27% holder is lining up a bid imo. But watch out as shorters out Liontrust reducing but others are buying. Good liquidity there can buy sell 10k shares. Got my average down to 505 and confident that 550 will return within a few months if not earlier. Also got last divi. If PAY goes I will look very clever if not a complete twt! Lol!
Still at least I have the yield 1.5x covered.

Buy around 480 if you can. That bags nearly 7.5% yield.

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Trek

Good move rusty printing deal highlights and reserves upgrades. I think it’s made a lot of potential sellers look at the numbers rather than the sp of late!.

Numbers are well underpinned imo.

Now is a buy one not sell. Sell was +120 but peeps understandably follow the market.

Usual caveats

Trek