Member Info for TrekMadone

Hi Tro,

Wasn’t the intention, just ended up a hobby becoming a method of income now since 51!

I have a v small pension but have to sub it with trading and Mrs Trek has no other income so I run the income pf all in here name.

Don’t know anywhere else you can get 1200% in two years thanks to covid and ARB!

I mostly stick to income stocks now though apart from the odd dabble. Have traded the yield to 8.75% with well covered payers.

IQAI getting ready for another pop imo! Nice dabble that one. Just beer money though!

Usual caveats

Trek

‘ SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell explained that Starlink technology was "never meant to be weaponised".’

Really the naivety!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64579267

Pick a side!

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Trek

SGZ a producing gold mine in Scotland. Just did an accelerated bookbuild. The retail offer is dependent on the corporate offer. Sp collapsed and you can already buy at the retail offer price on the market.

For sure it’s not Apples and apples but it does underline the quality of the assets here now that the market has had time to reflect!

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Trek

YU on a technical shake imo went below 670. It’s a buy for anyone interested. Results due mid March and the sp went to 740 on last guidance!

Be aware it’s very volatile as only 17m shares out there and most are taken so a tight float hence wild swings!

It will likely go to 10 after results as will be announcing divi policy but traders can target 7.5 with confidence imo or sit longer for more.

Also TXP dipped below 70. I grabbed 10k more for the trading pot. Should run up ahead of news and you can sell into it if you don’t want to hold. 80p tp unless you wanna stick around. I have my largest position there for long term hold. It’s the first time I have freed up some cash to trade as I see it’s so cheap atm

IQAI good liquidity atm. You can sell 300k and there are only 330k left to buy. News on orphan drug status soon. Should have another run that one but it’s only a beer money punt as could go wildly either way! I added 50k today at 3.01p. It’s 2.77 to sell. See what I mean!

Sepl had a pullback to 108. I should have added but was greedy thinking 107 may come! Now 111! Results will imo be a huge beat. See post there from Moody’s if you have doubts about cash. They could literally let the divi in a blink! Everything is sat in purgatory waiting for the Exxon acquisition news. If it goes through they get huge increase in production backdated! If it doesn’t they get a sht load of cash back. Not often you get a potential win win like that! There was a huge buy recently at 120p!

Happy hunting!

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Trek

HimCaneToad,

I wouldn’t call this a growth company in the normal organic sense. It’s growth is primarily via acquisitions and efficiency. The objective is to max the run off from the assets to pay dividends and debt. The hedging and fixed rate debt coupons at 5.7% from me memory mean that they are projected to pay back 5x the capital after costs.

It’s not a normal business model. It’s a loop of returns, run down and replacement.

The fact that they raised at a 15% of our equity is a pretty good vindication of a home for cash. Especially when you consider a 13% yield.

I don’t think the price will stay below 110 for long. It will soon imo follow the TA patterns back to 120 over the next couple of months. It will take some positive macro to move much higher. The current fed hawkishness isn’t helping but when they guide inflation has turned things should improve. Likewise Freeport up and running will def help.

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Trek

ABC opened a new long on APP using CFD’s for over 2m shares!

That’s also a pretty good endorsement! So if the deal goes through happy days! The hedged shorts here at PAY will burn and we can move on!

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Trek

Pretty good endorsement of SEPL imo.

That cash pot is only growing!

“ However, the rating company noted that Seplat is less exposed to convertibility risk, given most of its revenue is paid in dollars.

It was stressed that the export dollar oil revenue of the energy firm is required to be repatriated back into Nigeria within 90 days of receipt, after which Seplat can transfer these US dollars funds back into offshore bank accounts.

To date, Seplat has had no restrictions imposed by the Central Bank of Nigeria and the company targets to have 70 per cent of total cash balances in USD and 70 per cent of that in offshore accounts.

“Seplat’s $650 million senior unsecured notes are due in 2026, and the company has a good liquidity profile supported by $305 million of cash on the balance sheet and full access to the $350 million undrawn revolving credit facility as of September 2022,” it stated, adding that their ratings are only “constrained by the foreign currency country ceiling.”

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Trek

What a nice copper blouse! Lovely to put a face to my emails!

Now what is the lady behind up to!

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Trek

Hi Thronegames…

“ I don't understand fully the timing mechanism for the issue of new shares.….”

Two tranches…

1st ‘the firm shares’. These are not subject to a vote or a prospectus. They will therefore be within the remit of the current articles of association (AoA). So can in effect be issued henceforth and result in 9.99% of capital allocation. They will be settled on business open of 14th February.

2nd tranche. ‘The conditional shares’. So the extra 5.1%. Now don’t get excited as DEC have pretty much said they already have an advanced mandate from ‘significant shareholders’ for the vote to proceed else that would be silly now! (didn’t ask me though! Lol). This allocation will be subject to the publishing of a ‘circular’ and a vote 27th Feb. See last RNS today, circular published, date announced. Now they don’t say when those shares will come into effect, as there is a vote! but it will be by the xd date 2nd March; obviously I guess!

Folk understandable keep going on about being disenfranchised as retail investors. I agree as I also could have bought more. But it is an accelerated bookbuild. It’s how it works and if you look at the RNS they explain….

“ Given the expected share-level earnings and cash-flow accretion of the Acquisition funded with proceeds from the Proposed Fundraising, and given the importance of leveraging a key competitive advantage over other potential buyers of the target assets by being able to raise capital quickly in the London market, the Company believes the structure of the Proposed Fundraising is aligned with shareholder and other stakeholder interests.…”

So we were potentially not the only show in town!

Now that is good news imo! As is the cash commitment from existing holders who also endure dilution. But it’s the nominator and the denominator that you also have to factor in as the pie is now bigger!

As I have said before this is not a ‘lights on RNS’ it’s 100% accretive and can stand alone better than some of our existing assets!

“..will the share trade lower at a future date in March as per the RNS? Or is this news already baked into the SP? “

I don’t know. But there was a £2m sell today at 105 that was absorbed. It’s my view that the market will come around and the SP move up I think 120 a new base. It may dip down briefly but the yield will underpin. I would use the yield as a guide for trading here. So say buy at 10-15% and sell if 15% crashes and watch the macro! That kinda keeps you in the money but wtfdik!

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Trek

I’ve traded a few today to get my average down so pretty pleased.

Not mentioned is the $163m is a pretty good endorsement of DEC model. Ok it’s against a 105 sp and not 140. But it is accretive and hasn’t adversely affected the self amortising model of existing wells.

They have told us the divi is covered. I think there will be a run off of cash from Tanos to later buyback the shares.

I have a couple of buys set if in case it goes to or below the placing price. They can sit for now. But I won’t leave them too long in case there is a run up ahead of the xd.

Certainly never a dull moment here for a dull stock! And at least the liquidity is so good that you can deal in big numbers without breaking trades down or paying dealing tax! Thankfully!

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Trek

“ Another excellent acquisition for DEC who have also yet again financed the deal via a placing and a retail offer which was keenly snapped up by mainly existing shareholders, no surprise there. The $250m package of assets bought from Tanos (again) are high quality (again) and accretive (again).

As usual the deal ticks all the boxes with regard to the immediate financial benefits such as FCF and adjusted EBITDA which are up by 20% and 19% respectively on a TTM basis. (to 30 June 20228, and 16% accretion on a price per flowing Mcfe basis)

The offer and the price that the shares have settled at are, as often happens on these occasions, highly attractive for those looking for an entry point and with the massive current yield, together with what will likely be significant capital gain from here, make the shares hugely cheap at this price. ”

https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/02/oil-price-diversified-energy-and-finally-2/

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Trek

DEC accelerated bookbuild complete. It’s a top acquisition but 105p! Market will come around I guess.

He1 minchin gone now Lorna 1 ! Don’t think market will like as she has limited capital markets experience.

HZM keeping up momentum. I should have bought at 91p! Doh!

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Trek

Clued,

‘ ii weren't involved at all. ’

I am with ii and had the notification in my ISA when I logged in at around 17:30. It then took around 10mins for the options box to appear. I saw it on ii before the RNS only coz I was checking to see if some trades had gone through. I put in £250 as was all the cash that was in ISA!

All said I will be amazed if they fill 3m from retail. It’s just down to luck if you happen to have funds and happen to be in a position to get message! Pretty poor show but I guess there are legals for this type of build as the effective date was retrospective as opposed to like a rights issue for a proposal. Accelerated book builds are by nature just that often 12 hour window.

Re the increase in shares and divi. The assets we are taking on are hedged higher than what we have atm. They should deliver freestanding revs. I looked at the numbers a couple of times and am wondering how they got such a good deal!

Tanos must be cashing out for some reason.

A concern I have is financing the development of the undeveloped assets. It’s not really our thing. I expect they may bring someone in for that.

All in all though I see this as a net positive even with more float as what we have bought is better on paper than what we have. Upside is also lower decom costs under the Dec umbrella and extends our cashflow. Could also lead to buy back later.

Any bad news has surely already been priced in. I think the market will come around even if not immediately.

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Trek

Agree barchid,

Good luck

Trek

What the heck just put £250 in! I had another trade planned to add more here later.

Would really have helped even a few more hours notice.

Interesting the rise into the close. Hopefully the market likes it and we move back higher.

This is an accretive placing not some lights on mining stock move so no reason why it doesn’t counter the production decline concerns and move us back above 120.

If it drops tomorrow I will defo go through with my sell elsewhere and buy here. 13% yield and the bod’s confidence to say the new shares get the divi! That’s pretty bullish!

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Trek

I have put cash back in today! Only have £255 atm. Hardly worth the effort.

I saw the invitation pop up on ii

Looks a fantastic deal though with their prod already hedged higher than our existing hedge and new shares will get the divi! Plus expo upside!

Probably explains the share buy back halt as we expected.

Still nice to get an invite from Rusty but the train has already left for most!

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Trek

After 112 went I think the market feared another visit to 107 as it has been there 4 x the last year.

Imo it just needs a little momentum now to get. Us on our way again.

I got most of mine back at 109-111 that I had sold earlier. So a much better average now and enough for one last top up before the xd!

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Trek

I still think 550 soon.

Syquant increasing short here and long at APP via CFD. Given the t/o price is 44p and the sp is 41.90 I don’t get why they would allow them to increase their long to now 6.95%. I guess nothing is certain but it does seem a one way bet!

They will IMO loose on the PAY short though but it’s only .26% and I guess is more of a hedge.

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Trek

I am still a tad under 102 average but with 80k shares now. So have 10k to sell into the rise. I think 5k at 122 and 5 into results news. The TA has signalled a 120 break next.

As all ways with these things you gotta adapt and my average is way better now than had I just sat on my backside or panicked at the dip which was an opportunity based on the actual numbers v the trading antics.

Having a similar battle a PAY atm where the shorters are having their day but data says otherwise. It’s NOT a tip. It’s just another boring income play. But the point is there I traded down from well over 550 average to now around 512 with the same number of shares. Similar at DEC and my insurers.

It’s an approach that’s not for everyone and I will sit back more in the summer. Probably in cash lol!

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Trek

Not sure what he means but remember YU’s results have been guided and the finals WILL be audited results.

There will also be news of a capital return and a divi policy.

I am expecting around 30p as a one off. That’s £5.1m return which still leaves plenty of cash on the books which incidentally is increasing significantly!

So anyone buying 1000 shares now at £7 a share can look forward to £300 back. Possibly more as they can afford much more but I think in that area with more to come later.

Well worth tucking a few away as a longer term income play. Plus a sp that is on the brink of a higher rerate imo.

Usual caveats

Trek