Member Info for TrekMadone

My understanding is that this is the recurring review for the longer term hedge pf. So they invest this in the market to hedge future production. It’s self amortiseing debt via the ABS notes.

You can see here the profile on slides 10 & 32

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_01ee2601565e8539db74b8527dcf2fcd/dgoc/db/562/4692/pdf/DEC+Corporate+Presentation+%28Sep+2023%29.pdf

As they have debt running off and have increased ebitda by 26% this keeps them within the 2.4 debt to ebitda profile.

It’s just normal pf management.

If you look at the gas futures you will see that they are going up which is helpful as that can mean increased returns for shareholders and of course debt providers.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.html

Or you can take the view of many here that they need more money coz they’re in the sht. In which case go look back through the RNS’s here’s the one from this time last year!

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/DEC/diversified-closes-securitised-financing-mmonan58hqthust.html

You normally find that creditors call in an asset sale rather than issue more debt when things are in trouble. That way as a tier one investor they agree a program to get their cash back. They tend not to unanimously (for the second time recently) vote to continue with the same model and issue another $50m!

Usual caveats

Trek

Agree nom,

AI is actually sparking an era of fake AI! Where folk think a database has intellectual capacity. So if you see an increase in scrambled eggs you need to change your whole approach to Easter!

Most of it is a nonsense!

In todays news…..cnbc

“ E-commerce giant Amazon on Monday said it will invest up to $4 billion in artificial intelligence firm Anthropic and take a minority ownership position in the company.

The move underscores Amazon’s aggressive AI push as it looks to keep pace with rivals such as Microsoft and Alphabet’s Google.

The two firms on Monday said that they are forming a strategic collaboration to advance generative AI, with the startup selecting Amazon Web Services as its primary cloud provider…”

Meanwhile some supermarkets have found a use for an Access DataBase and MSproject!

Usual caveats

Trek

Mick,

He1… I got a couple of trades wrong recently but am confident I will soon be up overall.

I thought that 7’s meant the placing had washed. Clearly it hadn’t but will soon.

You have to remember that insti’s HNWI’s will try and make money both ways.

So take up the placing at 6p when sp is 8p ish.

Short your stock via CFD so it doesnt show and you get leverage.

Sell a % of your stock knowing that’s what others will be doing to mitigate risks

Offload the shorts!

Then pick up longs from 6 to sell at 7, 8, 9

Or of course they can just hold and sell physical when in profit (250k trades) at +6.

Or they can forward sell albeit that’s a bit of a misnomer, it relies on a long buyer that will pay more than 6 that didn’t get in at the placing so sp should really rise in that case as they want stock from 6.

Anyways,

It’s all very early days atm.

I like that Lorna has been smart and said a month so imo she fully intends to catch the market out with early news knowing exactly (I hope) what is going on!

Usual caveats

Trek

PS looks like we will be stuck in port due to Agnes! But who cares! It’s a change of scenery and a ‘free’ holiday thanks to YU!. Hoping for a HE1 trip in a month so well chilled! Lol!

I didn’t include a special as didn’t think it was guaranteed and if so they may just spread it across the rest at the next hike.

I added 5+1k more today at under 130p as expecting a move through 140p with results and bullish poo.

Starting to flip some xd stocks into here that have recovered.

Usual caveats

Trek

Follow on question…..

Surely by using AI correction technology one could overcome the noise issues

Response…

You raise a good point. Yes, using AI noise reduction and image correction techniques could potentially help compensate for the increased noise when using lower flip angles and lower contrast agent doses in MRI scans. Here are a few key notes about how AI could help:

- AI deep learning algorithms are being developed to reduce noise and artifacts in MRI images. These use pattern recognition and prior training on clean images to filter out noise.

- Denoising AI tools can help clean up signal-to-noise issues caused by low flip angles and maintain image quality. This could allow lower contrast dose without sacrificing diagnostics.

- AI super-resolution techniques can improve resolution and sharpen images, overcoming limitations of low flip angle techniques.

- Automated quality control AIs can check MRI images for adequate enhancement and diagnostics before scanning ends. This allows technicians to modify sequences in real-time to optimize results.

- AI acquisition parameter selection programs can suggest optimized combinations of flip angle, contrast dose, scanning sequences etc for each patient.

So in the future, AI and deep learning applications could help radiologists maximize image quality and diagnostic information while minimizing contrast agent dose in MRI scans. But human oversight is still important to ensure clinical utility. Overall, AI has great potential to improve MRI optimization and personalization.

But unknown to Claude the future is here, it’s IQAI’s IB technologies which eliminates the need for a preload without SNR issues it provides enhanced imaging for both T1-weighted and T2* maps!

That’s one of the reasons GEHC want IB platform. It’s less intrusive and saves money without loosing quality!

Usual caveats

Trek

Ok so I thought I would check with Claud AI by Anthropic. It’s an AI platform that I use as it has ethical standards…..

Post 1….

Q Hi on an MRI scan can you use a lower dosage of contrast agent if you use a low flip angle

Response

Here are a few key points about using contrast agents and flip angles in MRI scans:

- Contrast agents containing gadolinium are often used in MRI scans to help enhance and improve the images. The dose given is based on the patient's weight.

- The flip angle refers to the angle at which the MRI signal is tipped during image acquisition. A lower flip angle (like 20-30 degrees) produces less signal intensity, while a higher flip angle (like 70-90 degrees) produces greater signal.

- Yes, it is possible to use a lower dose of contrast agent if you also use a lower flip angle technique. The lower flip angle allows you to maintain adequate contrast enhancement even with less contrast agent.

- However, you have to balance the tradeoffs - a lower flip angle can produce images with less signal-to-noise ratio and more noise. So you may have to increase scanning time to compensate.

- The radiologist and MRI technologist determine the optimal combination of contrast dose and flip angle to get the needed image quality in the shortest time for each patient and scan. Adjustments may be made based on patient factors like kidney function, size, and scan objectives.

So in summary, yes lower contrast dose is possible with a lower flip angle, but all parameters need to be considered to obtain the best image quality for diagnostic purposes. The medical team picks the optimal approach for each patient situation.

See post above next…..

Well done Shrek!

This is the key point. Remember my early post about the low flip angle and that the underlying reason for the RNS was the IB was the ONLY platform that you could reduce the dose with compromising quality. That’s what GEHC want to push in their marketing.

Now you have it!…..

“ IB Neuro automatically processes DSC data using its unique contrast leakage (of GBCA) correction technology. It is the ONLY platform that generates quantitative output that can be directly compared across timepoints. This study also makes IB Neuro the ONLY platform proven to provide accurate perfusion maps under low-dose conditions at both 1.5T and 3T MR scanners. …”

That’s another USP!

Usual caveats

Trek

Huge volume day today.

Indicative Buys £9.2m v indicative sells £3.2m. Even allowing for a few errors thats a big gap!

SP goes down lol!

Good old London eh! No wonder companies are moving to the US. The algorithm here is pretty useless unless that is you wanna buy cheap I guess!

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Trek

Synt is an interesting one. They makes adhesives, sticky stuff, medical gloves etc.

Look at the chart on max and see how they went post covid.

Been absolutely hammered with higher rates.

There’s a 276m rights issue going through there atm then a consolidation! Mcap only 195m.

I would have to do some serious research before trading that one again but it was a joy when folk were stocking up on gloves and gels for covid! And of course I sold. Many didn’t and no doubt some are still invested.

AI is the next buzz and yet it hardly gets a whisper on the BB’s apart from techies like nom!

IQAI huge volume day there today but folk seem to be following charts and momentum rather than AI tech. Yet!

Usual caveats

Trek

Some larger trades today. Gone from some days of zero trades to 129 today so far!

Thanks to red there has been some liquidity there.

Got a feeling this will pop soon.

6p just seems to be everyone’s expectation so that means folk are happy to add in 5’s.

Really excited about the next news though that’s what we really need it. It could come from anywhere really but we do normally get a ‘letter to shareholders’ sept/oct time.

Usual caveats

Trek

Not sure who the guy is but I have forward yield at around 6.61% at 128p. Moves a bit with fx.

Likewise I have added back in the ones I sold earlier.

Usual caveats

Trek

‘ Q1: What was your view on Diversified Energy’s first half results?

A1: Interim results were in line with expectations. H1/23 production averaged 141.9 kboepd (Stifel 141.8 kboepd) with an exit rate of 144 kboepd. Adjusted EBITDA was also in line at $283 million (Stifel $285 million) with strong margins at 52% (Stifel 53%), which was despite slightly higher costs from Central assets and inflationary pressures, offset to an extent by lower production taxes and transportation expenses. Capex of $32 million was also lower than our $40 million forecast. Liquidity at the end of the period was $103 million, which followed a substantial reduction in payables.

Q2: Any other key points to note?

A2: I would highlight:

The company generated $62m (net) in liquidity through the monetisation of non-core assets. On our estimates, the value of non-core acreage across the portfolio could be worth ~$250 million on a risked basis.

Diversified has declared a Q2/23 interim dividend of 4.375 cents p/s, consistent with Q1/23 and our forecasts. The overall dividend yield is over 15% at current levels which makes the stock particularly attractive to investors seeking investment income.

There was a gain of over $50m on commodity derivative settlements. Diversified remains ~85% hedged in H2/23 at an average price of $3.53/mcf vs a peer group average of 50% at $3.08/mcf. This advantaged position is even more pronounced in future years.

Diversified continued to deliver strongly on its ESG commitments. Amongst a variety of initiatives, during the first half of 2023, overall 100 Diversified wells were plugged (Appalachia and Central Region), at an average cost of $20-25k per well. Elsewhere >120,000 upstream surveys were conducted, with a post-inspection no-leak rate on ~97% of assets. Diversified also converted pneumatic devices on 50+ well pads in Central Region, exceeding FY23 goal of 50 well pads.“

Directors talk. As opposed to BB book talking!

Trek

Interesting

“September 22, 2023 at 01:42 am EDT

(MT Newswires) -- Phoenix Group (PHNX.L) acquired a 5% interest in London venture capital firm Hambro Perks for an undisclosed sum, executives of both groups told London's Financial Times.

The British insurer may raise its stake to 10% over time, according to the Friday report. The move comes as the company looks for "ways to democratize access to private assets for defined contribution portfolios,” said Phoenix's strategic partnerships Head James Mitchell.

Hambro Perks operates a venture capital fund and has shareholdings in over 100 companies, including US biotech Gelesis, geolocation start-up What3words, fintech group PrimaryBid, and investment platform Moneybox. “

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/PHOENIX-GROUP-HOLDINGS-PL-105996789/news/Phoenix-Buys-5-of-London-Venture-Capital-Firm-Hambro-Perks-44901262/#AL

Hi Alessandro,

It doesn’t work like that. SP’s move disproportionately up and down on a relatively small % of mcap traded.

You only have to look at the high risers/fallers list to work it out.

The stock exchange gets paid on volumes so MM’s use liquidity schemes to drive volume. I.e shake a share price using small numbers of trades or ALGO trades. They then make money off the spread, and side bets!

There is no incentive for a position of hold as no one gets paid! Hence stocks swing around often on low volumes.

You will often see folk on BB’s complain that a few trades has resulted in a 5% drop!

So Stifel don’t necessarily need to spend all their 98m to get a 10% appreciation in SP.

You can read about liquidity schemes here…

Definition: market making incentive schemes that the Exchange is mandated to offer under Article 48(2)(b) of MiFID and Article 1 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/578

Page 58 covers it and also ALGO trades.

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/rules-lse.pdf

MiFID2 MM magmt tab...

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/20200401%20MIT%20&%20TE%20Parameters%20version%207.2.xls

Usual caveats

Trek

Looking across financials most of them are up today. Also of note are housebuilders.

Pretty obvious the suites take note of the brokers tips. You’d have thought they could figure stuff out for themselves!

This will return strongly once common sense takes over and a few bargain hunters appear!

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Trek

Zak has covered NOG, I picked it up from howdlep on IQAI. Perhaps it’s traders?

9mins in

https://zakstraderscafe.com/bulletin-board-heroes-september-22/7762/

Trek

It’s a bonkers market Tom we went 60p to 70p around 4 x earlier this year and here we are getting ready to throw off half our mcap every year in cash! Unbelievable!

The London market is absolutely crazy. I have taken a position in SEPL it’s 130p here 190p in NIgeria FFS!

One of my biggest holdings is PHNX I get 9.8% yield! The US insurance sector is around twice the price! And PHNx just delivered excellent results!

Take out RR, AZN, GSK and a couple others and pretty much all the other stocks are well down on the FTSEE100 and 250.

London is really cheap and gets cheaper but there has to be a market bottom at some point.

It’s a great opportunity to grab some high yield atm.

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Trek

Well done red!

Congrats on your profit!

Profit is profit albeit an unusual time to sell into price momentum but I get it if you offloaded 800k! Wow!

That will account for the SP going up soon not down.

You see the MM’s here will take on stock due to momentum then mark the SP up and sell it back creaming the spread!

That’s why the SP has been held back.

If you want folk to sell… drop/hold the price

If you want folk to buy… rise/glide up the SP

Peeps usually get it the wrong way around. Looking at volume and spread through the day is a useful aid.

The price rise here is gradually getting the company noticed. People also seem to be realising having done some research that it’s the real deal. The collaborations are a significant vote of confidence!

Imo there’s much more to come and all we gotta do is wait!

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Trek

Nog! Lol!

Never heard of them!

Virtual Apologies sent!

Trek

“ It would be interesting to see if the shorts reduce on the back of the JP Morgan recommendation!!!”

GLG reduced from 0 .9- 0.76% last change was 13th Sept.

They may well of closed out more following the broker sell note.

For sure broker notes are rubbish. Apart fro AZN and RR + a couple others everything is way down on the FTSE100 & 250 over the year yet they said it should all have gone up.

Just like Zak Mir whose charts are always set to show a rise but few do.

But they will next month!

Usual caveats

Trek