Member Info for TrekMadone

Folk selling placing shares at a profit.

SP will turn as buyers come in for commencement of operations.

Today under seven is a buy day.

The day to sell is ahead of us still.

Blue finish.

Usual caveats

Trek

I think that’s a fair point Jim. I thought same but RNS said Brad had done the CFO job before. Hopefully it’s a development thing and he takes some deeper operational knowledge back to the excels!

I did like the quality of what we got from Eric. Likewise I think it could be personality but Rusty wants delivery. Perhaps something wasn’t delivered that should have been and it’s caught up. Who knows it could be as simple as the buy back.

let’s face it that has psd a few off not the BB itself but saying something and not doing it or not saying that you are now not going to do it!

it helps knowing Rusty built this business and has a sht load of skin in this!

He is a hard business man but he is also a very good people person. Had employees on management’s calls, pays well, good engagement etc.

The longer term SP will be the judge!

Guess we’ll find out soon enough!

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Trek

It’s still silly cheap at under 600p. Think about it. It was over 600p without these numbers. SP Dropped on the market fears of inflation and high interest rates, their impact on balance sheet. That’s from beginning of year.

We have now had numbers out for that period that have shown that the initial statements around hedging and being ‘inflation agnostic’ have held true!

Just grab some before the suites get permission to buy!

I think we will close at 550 today. Then go higher.

My hope now is to be blue after the xd which I think is very likely.

Based on the outlook for cash generation and organic growth + M&A you gotta tuck these away! +9.8% yield! At least 1.8x cover now!

All said I wouldn’t be surprised to see a US inti make a move on PHNX. 700p would be an absolute steel! We are so much cheaper than US peers. London is ridiculous!

Dollar strength as well, a bid is very likely imo. It’s just an easy bolt on and some new livery! Lol!

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Trek

Just goes to show how the world of investing has changed. You can actually wait for the news and then buy as there is hardly anything in the SP so why suffer the journey!

Once these bored sellers are out then those bargain hunters should takeover!

A tuck away here at under 100p with its massive and now financed production and exploration programme ahead is an unbelievable opportunity imo!

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Trek

Phoenix Group smashes forecasts with cash generation

https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/phoenix-group--14715340.html

Trek

Txp about time hit the numbers! Gotta clear out some bored sellers before it moves though. Hopefully will be some insti interest soon.

PHNX blown the doors off with their interims! I had a sneaky feeling they would. I am now sticking there. 10% yield on a for me huge position! Job done! Phew!

DEC BoD changes I posted there.

Wsbn…. Mmmm elevated this, strong that, intersected these. All looks very rampy to me, no data tables. Of course I could be wrong but I don’t trust them other than an in out trade!

Hemo…. Congrats there. I bought back in couple weeks back at 1.75, I posted there. Will sell today but it’s amazing news. I will come back later. Just in time to add at shg as results not today so room for sp to go higher imo.

We’ll see!

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Trek

It will be 14m pq but I think more because they didn’t factor in much for NGL’s. We got 1400pd! Wow! And I recollect that’s at market price not fixed so our slops!

No doubt will be an interview today and PB will be his chirpy ebullient self. About time!

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Trek

another change from rusty to address the share price decline!

he really isn’t taking any prisoners!

2 x investor engagement events / capital markets day

unanimous approval from banks!

2 big financial divestments = 62m!

director buys including big holdings from rusty

further director buys

revamped simplified slide decks

record production at interims

26% increase in ebit!

10% reduction in unit costs!

103m liquidity

divi easily covered by 52% cash margins

+25% premium over spot!

gold rating esg

further kick up the **** director buys!

looks like buyback is gonna happen

and after all that huge reshuffle and new cfo!

i mean wtf!

you gotta give it to rusty he is aligned with shareholders but will it make a difference. for sure it will help as the bod is one of the most important sp drivers but i still think it’s macro here.

with more rigs coming off and now china drawing more gas, europe wanting more gas and massive us infrastructure projects happening it’s a volume game! dec will benefit hugely from the knock effects of increased demand irrespective of hedging. they can flex these wells with smart technology to deliver on volumes and price

at some point there will be an acquisition but only at the right price. atm though even if we standstill investors will get way way more than their capital back in dividends!

from my dealings with eric i thought he was ok. but we are on the outside.

wish the team the best. they have a big slice of my pension!

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trek

Simply outstanding!

Cash up significantly and reversed AUM to positive now that is a surprise! Also deleveraged debt!

Results guided for top end and chance of divi hike with finals!

I am staying put now. Job done, black swans aside my average of 523 ish should be a thing of the past!

If we don’t have a great day today I will be amazed!

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Trek

“ Touchstone achieved its forecasted Cascadura gross natural gas production rate of 60 million cubic feet per day ("MMcf/d") on September 15, 2023. The Cascadura-1ST1 well is currently contributing approximately 40 MMcf/d while the Cascadura Deep-1 well is contributing approximately 20 MMcf/d of gross natural gas volumes. In addition, the wells are currently producing an aggregate 1,400 barrels per day of field estimated gross natural gas liquids volumes.”

Phew!

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Trek

The last update on bond financing is note 15 in the finals, events since results….

“ The Company has launched an $80 million corporate copper bond issue which is in the process of being placed…..”

So it’s in theory ready to go. Obviously it’s not that simple. The Fed discount rate is much higher for one thing. Also they don’t want to issue too early as that means more coupons.

So the cash situation is key…

They have extended the 2m loan to end Oct. This attracts a 4% coupon + 1% pm on the extended period. This is cheap money and it’s too early for any sp manipulation shenanigans by Riverfort as the terms can be extended for a further 6 months before any debt to equity conversion options kick in.

At that time the company clearly said…

“The Company maintains sufficient sterling working capital to cover corporate overheads, well into 2024.”

So the cost is 5% of 2m per quarter and as I understand it it’s flat. = $100k pq.

Cash situation at Dec 22 was $4.66m (Inc 1.41m from warrants)

They are burning 1.6m pa on admin

The capex for ops was already committed in last years accounts (DP) this included costs of nav creek drilling. That would therefore be in the $6.8m PPE line.

Obviously it wouldn’t include pay though.

Last year they had to include $500k of fx losses. But that’s the idea of the 2m as it’s in USD….

“….to strengthen US dollar operational working capital ahead of the 2023 exploration season, pending completion of the Bonds.”

Hence why it’s been extended as I think they expected to start drilling earlier + the ATS and copper bond delays.

So we can ‘safely’ assume that’s the pay covered at an additional cost of $100k pq which they should easily be able to pay from the short term bond itself for the full term. Then the copper bonds will pay the debt or Riverfort can convert.

So we basically net out with 4.66m - 2m in admin allowing for everything going up.

Additionally takeaway

- 500 k for Fx should be much less this year

- 100k for decommissioning cost retainer

= 2m cash left from January 2024 at this run rate.

There are around 9m warrants outstanding but as I see it at a higher sp so wouldn’t expect much from those yet.

Such is the accounting mechanics our NAV is probably around $45m and mcap is $17.8m! So even on the 50% NAV discount adage it’s cheap!

If they land the financing and atm the BoD haven’t convinced the market sufficiently then this will go up substantially.

I maintain though that the ‘options’ motivated directors which is fair enough should still be supporting the SP at this level.

Usual caveats

Trek

Goodness me just saw this one on the fallers list!

I used to be invested here a couple years back. Traded out with a small loss from memory having watched it rocket through 4p and then slide back down. Should’ve sold then but my eyes were ruling my head! Everyday I thought it would come back up again. Two drills! Hole of bag Creswick etc etc I even bought loads with a ‘51’ in the SP in memory of CB!

I still got my bonds and warrants tracker as the financing was so complex. That way I could see at a glance what was due.

I think after here I dabbled in GCAT, lost lots there, £10k! and they are a producer! CEO is an absolute liar and yet has gotten away with lying to the market on financing. There is zero support from regulators for PI’s. I wrote to the MAR what a waste of fking time! The SP just collapsed and there was no out unless one put in loads more cash and hoped it come good. Many are locked in and the SP is now well below what I sold at!

Then I traded SGZ got out of that one recently on a bounce with a small profit. But I did hold it earlier and made a few bob on the run up through 100p back in 2020. Now suspended. Again lying BoD! They knew all along it wasn’t hitting the numbers and even with throwing cash at it time and time again they’d like need a 5k POG to make money. But the directors got paid!

Also had a dabble in PUR a Canadian gold miner with absolute outstanding grades! But there they overspent, CEO lied to the market and then they were on life support finance. I averaged down from 100p and sold every bounce I could where I was in a small profit on my new money. Then I exited and put it all back in when it went below 10p and I sold for like 12p. Still made a loss after all that hard work but a much reduced one.

I remember it was a nightmare to sell PUR as no liquidity even with a supposedly rising sp! Anyways even though Sprott had a big holding they are now bust!!

Of course I have had lots of winners as well like GGP, but look at that now!

I just picked up some SHG below 10p, that’s my first visit back into gold for a while. I held that one in the past and made good money.

But in my experience of those that have not done well there are two key themes.

1. Finance. What they actually delivered from what they have and think about what they need now! Finance is everything. The share count and Sp doesn’t lie!

2. My weakness is I believe CEO’s tell the truth. They don’t! Many may not commit to something which I get but others actually do spin a load of BS! Which for me was a hard lesson as I thought esp in my earlier trading days that people like that had integrity. Many don’t!

Anyways I have no idea if that helps but I sincerely hope for the best here for you guys and that the new BoD deliver.

Us PI’s really are up against it!

Good luck

Usual caveats

Trek

Ps no I am not buying nor do I hold any so it’s back under my stone!

Hi max,

I wish!

I just like to think I can read the tea leaves! Future treatment is about patient empowerment, team real time working and clinical AI. Nimble + IB combines all!

Funny thing is though, that that is not exactly rocket science!

Finding a company with a low mcap and financed + financing options and collaborative upsides + servicing unmet clinical needs (bonus). Now that’s the bit where you have to look through loads of companies before you place a conviction buy on one or two.

IQAI is such an impressive proposition that any PI should have at least just a few hundred quid in it at this level.

The phase two alone which looks nailed on is a huge potential sp bagger! Then you have the IB stuff!

Anything with a hint of AI will imo soon get a lift….

From GS today via email…

“ Why AI stocks aren't in a bubble

The explosion of interest in artificial intelligence has fueled a major rally in technology stocks, with a concentrated group of large US companies leading the market higher. This slate of “early winners,” including makers of semiconductors needed to build AI technology and cloud service providers with the computing infrastructure to commercialize it, returned roughly 60% through the first eight months of 2023.

Even though these stocks rose, they don't appear to be in a bubble, Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist in Goldman Sachs Research, writes in the team's report. The valuations of the stocks leading the market are not as stretched as in previous periods, such as the dot-com bubble that collapsed in 2000, and the companies have unusually strong balance sheets and return on investment. These companies are already profitable and generate cash, so they can invest even in an environment of high interest rates.”

See we are bigger than a bubble! SP has hardly moved…..yet!

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Trek

Hi Craig,

Not at the moment. I have traded this one and won every time! Atm I am out but would only look to buy if I had a pot free which coincided with an end to the downtrend here.

I thought the interims were good but they haven’t really done enough to justify the high pe of 51 which makes this expensive imo. The battery side is pretty small and the meter growth hasn’t really blown the doors off like I thought it would.

If in profit I would sell as may get back cheaper or at least sell half and feed back in lower. The yield here at 4.86% even with 10% yoy growth isn’t brilliant there’s better elsewhere.

The inflation increases are however an attraction.

The 5 year chart has this going below 600. I reckon you can get 590-570 with patience. Then sell again from there hopefully 650. But not one to chase. If you get mid high 500’s suddenly the yield becomes more attractive.

Good luck

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi mick,

It’s been on my watchlist for ages. I held in 2020, made a few bob but sold way too early. As I posted I think it’s due a rerate now and the cash position and debt run off will be the catalyst.

Once they got rid of the debt they will be seriously printing cash and that should come back via divi’s unless they buy another plot.

It’ll be a nice gold play as well rather than interest rate worries. If gold goes through 2 which it may next year then all that extra hits their bottom line! It’s a great story!

I will likely add more later. Just timing trades.

May have to average down at PXC which imo is being shaken atm. Loads of news due there but out of cash atm!

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Trek

Thanks for sharing ITD,

DEC will have its day. The macro is too strong as is their model. I am under 89p now and will buy more after Phnx go xd and recover a tad. As I posted I move some around around to grab some income.

Good for you emailing the BoD. I have here before once but have done it regularly across my pf. I hold at IQAI and have had several exchanges there and at DEC. Eric is awesome with his responses.

Good luck

Us pI’s need it!

I am sticking here and will add if still below 20 when I can free some funds as just added SHG!

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Trek

Thought I’d have a go at SHG. Results next week should close above 10 today. I got in at 9.6.

Did ok a while back from sub 10 to 15p but sold way too early. I am v good at that! Lol!

This time I think there is a huge disconnect between the SP and the business as a result of forced sellers. Odey etc and failed t/o bid.

Cash position should surprise to upside though and hopefully volumes will clear remaining overhang then it should pop!

It’s showed it’s hand with some forays into 10 before coming back.

I don’t have any gold producers atm and think this could be a hold unless it spikes in which case I will sell and start again later. See how it goes.

Also grabbed more he1. Like ‘everyone else’ hoping to build a profit for the drill. There will obviously be shows but as for a trap and seal well at least they are targeting a couple of chances so who knows! Defo good chance this time!

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Trek

Well after selling here in 2020 around 15p from memory only to miss out on its continue run to 20p I thought I would have a few ahead of Monday. Will likely build more later.

Kinda think this is an opportunity due to forced selling meaning the SP is not reflective of the current business. Thought I’d missed sub 10p as trying to time trades but just managed to get some at 9.6.

Hopefully I will time the rise which I think is coming much better this time!

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Trek

Was NT to by in mini auction. Came out at 7, was 7.0775 to buy. I know that for a fact!

Topped up!

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Trek

£2.50 lol!

Also hoping this is some serious tree shake as I can still get a quote for all my stock atm! That’s hardly selling pressure. That’s manipulation on low volumes. All part of the game!

Up to the BoD though to get some news out so we can see it play in our favour with a lift the other way!

Usual caveats

Trek